市场代劳“加息”，沃什全力“抗通胀”
- 핵심 관점: 미국 국채 수익률이 큰 폭으로 상승하며 연준의 실제 금리 인상 효과를 일부 대체했습니다. 여기에 연준 의장 워시의 매파적 입장이 더해지며 시장은 금리 인상에 대한 기대와 공감대를 형성하고 있습니다. 그러나 워시 의장은 의도적으로 정책적 유연성을 유지하고 있어 금리 인상 속도에 대한 시장의 의견은 여전히 분분합니다.
- 주요 요소:
- 6월 미국 CPI가 전월 대비 하락하며 일시적으로 시장의 압력을 완화했지만, 워시 의장 등 관계자들은 인플레이션과의 싸움이 끝나지 않았다고 명확히 밝히며 시장은 여전히 9월 또는 10월에 25bp 금리 인상을 단행할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
- 2월 말 이후 2년물 미 국채 수익률은 누적 약 75bp 상승하여 4.2%에 근접했으며, 이는 현재의 정책 금리 구간인 3.5%~3.75%를 훨씬 웃도는 수준입니다. 이는 대출 비용을 높여 실질적으로 경제를 냉각시키는 효과를 내고 있습니다.
- 거래자들은 연말까지 금리 인상이 거의 확정적이라고 예상합니다. 인플레이션 압력이 해소되지 않았고(유가 상승, AI 자본 지출로 인한 경제 자극), 이는 시장이 쉽게 방향을 전환하기 어렵게 만듭니다.
- 워시 의장은 매파적 입장을 분명히 하지만 금리 인상 시점에 대한 명확한 지침은 약화시켜 정책적 유연성을 확보했습니다. 취임 이후 줄곧 인플레이션 억제를 최우선 과제로 삼고 연준의 독립성을 유지하는 것을 강조해 왔습니다.
- 시장의 의견 차이는 여전히 존재합니다. 일부 기관(예: 뱅크오브아메리카)은 9월, 10월, 12월 세 차례 금리 인상을 예상하는 반면, 다른 기관(예: 블랙록)은 시장 가격이 지나치게 매파적이며 하반기 인플레이션 둔화에 대해 신중한 판단을 내리고 있습니다.
Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wall Street CN
The sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields has, to some extent, already substituted for actual interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's hawkish stance has provided a clear anchor for this market pricing. An unusual tacit understanding is forming between the bond market and the Federal Reserve.
The June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its first monthly decline since 2020, offering the market a brief sigh of relief and leading to a rapid unwinding of positions betting on a Fed rate hike this month. However, Warsh immediately made it clear on Capitol Hill that the June CPI data does not mean the inflation fight is over. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack have also issued similar signals.
Currently, traders' expectations for a July rate hike have largely faded, but they still widely anticipate the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September or October, with a rate hike before year-end seen as almost a certainty. Simultaneously, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 75 basis points since late February to nearly 4.2%, well above the Fed's current policy rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This rise in Treasury yields has effectively acted as a brake on the economy by pushing up mortgage and other borrowing costs.
Inflation Pressures Persist, Rate Hike Expectations Loom
Despite the brief respite provided by the June CPI data, market concerns about the inflation outlook have not dissipated. Oil prices have risen again following the collapse of the Iran cease-fire agreement; massive capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence continue to inject stimulus into the economy, even as concerns about a bubble in some tech stocks have emerged. Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% annual target for the past five years, a stubborn trend that makes it difficult for the market to decisively pivot.
Ed Al-Hussainy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, stated: "If you do nothing, are you confident inflation will fall back to 2% or 2.5%? The answer is no. The Fed should feel more emboldened to raise rates without worrying too much about downside risks." He currently holds a position favoring long-term bonds over short-term bonds, a strategy that benefits from a more hawkish Fed policy path.
Economists at Bank of America expect the Fed to raise rates at each of its three meetings in September, October, and December. Following the release of the June CPI data, the bank noted in a client report that inflation remains well above the target, stating, "We need to see a few more similar data points before reconsidering our current assessment."
The Market Has 'Done the Work', Warsh Can Wait and See
The spontaneous pricing actions of the bond market are objectively sharing the policy pressure on the Fed. Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine, pointed out that, based on fed funds rate forward pricing, the bond market has often led Fed actions in the past. The most important change now, he argues, is that the market is no longer persistently pricing in rate cuts as it did over the past three years, but is instead beginning to reflect the possibility of a rate hike within the next year.
Sherman noted that this contrasts sharply with previous policy cycles: "The market heard Powell declare the end of rate hikes and started pricing in cuts, but the cuts never really materialized." Now, "the market seems to be saying: maybe the Fed will raise rates at some point in the next 12 months."
In his view, this means Warsh may not need to act immediately. "What you're seeing now is that the market has essentially done the Fed's work for it – the yield curve has steepened, with the policy rate sitting below all other rates on the curve. So, Chairman Warsh might be able to do nothing for now and watch how things evolve," Sherman concluded: "The bond market is doing its job; it's sniffing the data."
Warsh's Hawkish Stance is Clear, but He Deliberately Retains Flexibility
Since succeeding the Fed Chair position two months ago, Warsh has consistently made curbing inflation his top priority. At his first post-meeting press conference last month, he repeatedly emphasized the need to control inflation. Testifying before Congress last week, he reiterated that the June CPI data does not signify the mission is accomplished.
Notably, Warsh has not given a clear signal regarding the timing of a rate hike and tends to downplay the Fed's forward guidance on the rate outlook, arguing that overly clear guidance could make policymakers inflexible and unable to adjust easily. Fed officials will enter their standard pre-meeting quiet period this week ahead of the two-day meeting starting July 28, leaving the market without fresh policy signals during this time.
The Fed has remained on hold since its last rate cut in December. At that time, the job market was rebounding from its February trough, combined with a new wave of inflationary shocks from the Trump administration's military actions against Iran, dashing the market's previous widespread expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Warsh has clearly stated he will maintain the Fed's political independence and will not yield to Trump's pressure to cut rates.
Market Divergence Remains, Caution is Still the Key Theme
Despite rate hike expectations dominating the market, some institutions hold a more cautious assessment of the pace of the Fed's actual actions. Chi Chen, co-manager of BlackRock's $18 billion Total Return Fund, stated: "The market's pricing of the Fed's path is more hawkish than we expected, assuming our forecast for lower inflation and slower growth in the second half is correct. The Fed will likely remain hawkish, waiting for the data to eventually moderate." Her team currently favors positioning in medium- and short-term bonds, believing that after the sell-off following the Iran War, "valuations are clearly more attractive than before."
Sherman also expressed reservations about the threshold for a September rate hike, suggesting it would take "a mountain of data" to force the Fed's hand on such a decision, especially given the approaching elections and lingering political pressures.
Al-Hussainy stated bluntly: "Now is not the time to stick your neck out." With the policy path still uncertain, avoiding heavy bets on sensitive Fed positions might be the safest course of action for now.
