SpaceX falls below $150 on its first day of index inclusion, Wall Street collectively bullish with target prices as high as $800?
- Core Viewpoint: SpaceX was quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, but the stock price did not rise on the positive news; instead, it fell, hitting a new low since its listing. In the short term, it faces pressure from a large-scale stock unlock in August, but institutions generally view its long-term value positively and have given buy ratings.
- Key Factors:
- SpaceX was included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7th with a weighting of approximately 1.3%, but the stock price fell 6.8% that day to $149.47, a new closing low in its history.
- The positive impact of index inclusion had already been priced in. The $4.3 billion in passive fund buying expected by JPMorgan was essentially completed before the inclusion date and failed to boost the stock price on that day.
- August will see significant pressure from a large-scale stock unlock, allowing internal shareholders to sell up to 44% of their holdings. This negative expectation has already suppressed market sentiment in advance. Institutions recommend taking advantage of the pullback to build positions.
- Despite short-term headwinds, several Wall Street institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have collectively given buy ratings with target prices ranging from $200 to $800, betting on its long-term value.
- Potential short-term positives include a possible "pump" effect from Trump's political association, as well as the 13th flight test of Starship planned for July 14th, which could boost market sentiment.
Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Golem（@web 3_golem）
SpaceX has once again made history: On Tuesday, July 7, SpaceX was officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index, becoming the fastest company ever to be included in the index, with a weight of approximately 1.3%. However, this historic achievement did not translate into a positive performance for SpaceX's stock price. According to Gate US stock data, SPCX closed down over 6.8% on Tuesday at $149.47, hitting its lowest closing price since going public. How will SPCX perform in the future? And what are Wall Street institutions forecasting?
Index Inclusion 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the News' Takes Hold; Holding $150 is Already an Achievement
Before SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, JPMorgan estimated it would trigger at least $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows. Subsequently, over $800 billion in funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 index will continuously and passively allocate to SpaceX.
While this is a significant positive catalyst, the expectation of "entering the Nasdaq" has been marketed and priced in since SpaceX's listing day. When the event materialized on July 7, market sentiment lacked the momentum to push the stock higher. Furthermore, the massive buy orders behind the Nasdaq index are not dumped into the market on the day of inclusion; in reality, most passive fund buying was already executed ahead of July 7th.
Moreover, historical data shows that index inclusion is not always a sustained bullish signal and has, in some cases, marked a temporary top.
Strategy is a classic example. Strategy was added to the Nasdaq 100 on December 23, 2024. However, MSTR opened high but closed low on that day, falling approximately 7.3% to close at $332.23. Subsequently, Strategy entered a sustained downtrend, with its stock price bottoming out at $255.43 in February 2025. The passive buying triggered by the Nasdaq inclusion did not provide effective support for Strategy's stock price.
Now that the positive catalyst of index inclusion has played out, the widely anticipated negative factor of the stock lock-up expiration in August will likely be amplified. SpaceX's prospectus clearly states that two days after the Q2 2026 earnings report, eligible insider shareholders can sell up to 20% of their locked shares. If the stock price rises 30% above the IPO price and meets this standard for 5 days, an additional 10% can be unlocked. 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson estimates that insiders could sell 44% of SpaceX shares by early September.
Similar to how the positive expectation of index inclusion was priced in early, the panic surrounding the SpaceX stock unlock will inevitably be reflected in the price ahead of time. This is a key factor suppressing SpaceX's stock price from a market sentiment perspective, both recently and in the near future. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, also specifically mentioned the upcoming SpaceX stock unlock in an interview, suggesting that chasing SPCX at current highs is not advisable in the short term, and that building positions during the pullback caused by the unlock event would be a more suitable strategy.
However, at Tuesday's US stock market close, SpaceX was not the only one to fall. According to Gate US stock data, all three major US stock indexes closed lower. The Dow fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.16%. AI concept stocks also broadly declined, with Astera Labs down 11.52%, Ambarella down 9.92%, Teradyne down 9.59%, and AeroVironment down 8.09%.
In this context, compared to the broad market decline and the "sell the news" scenario, SPCX's ability to hold around the $150 level without breaking its IPO price is already quite an achievement. Meanwhile, according to OptionCharts data, SPCX's current Put-Call Ratio is 0.92, indicating market sentiment remains neutral, without a clear bearish bias.
Furthermore, a large number of call options expiring on July 10 are stacked at and above the $160 level, making the $150-$155 range a key battleground between bulls and bears.
Institutions Unanimously Give Buy Ratings; Are There Hidden Catalysts for SPCX?
Clearly, both timing and market sentiment are currently against the bulls. Over the past month, SPCX has repeatedly tested the $150 support level, but previously this support was an attacking position; now it's purely defensive. However, curiously, after the IPO quiet period ended, Wall Street institutional analysts have collectively issued Buy ratings for SPCX.
As IPO underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have both given SpaceX a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a $300 target. Additionally, Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $235 target price; Citigroup set a target of $200; Bernstein rated it Outperform with a $239 target; Macquarie Group set a target of $250; Deutsche Bank's target is $255; JPMorgan's target is $225; UBS's target is $210; and Wells Fargo's target is $230.
Raymond James Financial offered the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale setting a lofty price target of $800 for SPCX, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most iconic industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."
However, these institutional ratings mainly reflect optimism about SpaceX's long-term value, such as its initiatives in rocket launches, Starlink, and AI space data centers. In the short term, especially before the August stock unlock wave, what catalysts can SpaceX rely on to prevent the stock price from falling below $150 and heading straight for the $135 IPO price? Foreseeable potential positives include the following:
First, support from Trump. On July 7, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced participation in the "Invest America" plan, donating some of their SpaceX shares to Trump accounts for over 2 million American children. The donation is estimated to be around 2 million SpaceX shares, worth approximately $325 million. Previously, Trump publicly called on Elon Musk to donate SpaceX stock to the "Trump Account." Trump is a businessman who understands value exchange. Now that SpaceX stock has entered the "Trump account," he might also promote SpaceX similarly to how he has promoted Micron and Dell.
Second, SpaceX's Starship flight test planned for July 14. The target launch date for the 13th Starship flight test (Flight 13) is currently set for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with a backup date of July 15. The FAA has issued an operational advisory confirming the NET (No Earlier Than) date as July 14. Rocket launches always capture public interest, and as a global leader in aerospace, each SpaceX launch attracts worldwide attention. If Flight 13 is successful, SpaceX's aerospace narrative could briefly re-ignite enthusiasm among "fans," potentially boosting the stock price. While the community and tracking sites generally see July 14 as the primary target, the launch could be delayed by days or weeks due to technical readiness, weather, or other factors.
Ultimately, however, what most investors are likely hoping for is for Elon Musk himself to do something to "rescue" the stock price.
