大空头Burry新文：首次做空卡特彼勒$CAT，进一步做空AI和半导体
- 핵심 의견: 서브프라임 모기지 공매도로 유명한 헤지펀드 매니저 마이클 버리(Michael Burry)가 2026년 6월 30일, AI 인프라 핵심 종목들에 대한 여러 건의 공매도 포지션을 집중적으로 공개했습니다. 대상은 캐터필러, 엔비디아 및 반도체 ETF를 포함하며, 핵심 논리는 관련 종목들의 밸류에이션이 극단적인 고점에 도달했고 조정은 시간문제라는 것입니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 캐터필러($CAT)를 처음으로 공매도했습니다. 진입 가격은 1060.98달러입니다. 'AI 인프라 대리 주식'으로서 상반기에 86% 상승했으며, 주가매출비율(PSR)은 30년래 최고치, 주가수익비율(PER)은 약 53배에 달합니다.
- 같은 날 엔비디아(진입 가격 198.09달러), 어플라이드 머티어리얼즈(729.40달러), 필라델피아 반도체 ETF(SOXX, 642.80달러)에 대한 새로운 공매도 포지션을 구축했습니다.
- 핵심 근거는 필라델피아 반도체 지수(SOX)가 200일 이동평균선 대비 65% 이상 상승했고, 주가매출비율이 16배를 초과했다는 점입니다. 이러한 신장 폭은 닷컴 버블 당시에만 나타났던 수준입니다.
- 테슬라를 416.22달러에 공매도했지만 규모는 공개되지 않았습니다. 버리는 이전에 테슬라의 '터무니없이 고평가된' 밸류에이션과 주식 희석 문제를 비난한 바 있습니다.
- 이번 '분기 말 대규모 공매도'는 그의 일관된 약세 관점의 연장선입니다. 이전에도 팔란티어와 엔비디아를 대규모로 공매도했으며, AI 확장의 재정적 위험이 1999-2000년 버블과 유사하다고 경고했습니다.
Original Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Introduction: Michael Burry, the inspiration for "The Big Short," has disclosed his latest short portfolio, including his first-ever short position on Caterpillar $CAT, the best-performing S&P 500 stock this year (up 86% in the first half). The entry price was $1,060.98. On the same day, he also established new short positions in Nvidia, Applied Materials, Tesla, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). These targets are almost all core beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure rally. Burry's assessment: valuations have reached extremes not seen in his 30-year career, and "it's just a matter of time."
Hedge fund manager Michael Burry, famous for precisely predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, published a post on his paid Substack column "Cassandra Unchained" on June 30, disclosing a batch of new short positions targeting the AI and semiconductor sectors. The article, titled "Trading Post June 30, 2026," has a core logic summed up in one sentence: the current AI rally has reached dangerous levels.
According to CNBC, Burry wrote: "This is my first time shorting Caterpillar. I've been long this stock in the past, and it's always treated me well." This highlights the most unusual position in the current portfolio: Caterpillar is not an AI company; it manufactures construction, mining, and energy equipment.
First-Ever Short on Caterpillar at $1,060.98; It Became an 'AI Infrastructure Proxy'
Burry shorted Caterpillar at $1,060.98. What caught his attention was the valuation: with the stock price at an all-time high, Caterpillar's price-to-sales ratio (P/S) has reached its highest level in at least the past 30 years. According to GuruFocus data, its P/E ratio is approximately 53 times.
Caterpillar itself has nothing to do with AI, but the market has treated it as a "picks-and-shovels" play for global AI infrastructure investment. Data center construction requires power generation, transmission, and civil engineering, funneling increasing amounts of capital into this heavy equipment giant. As a result, Caterpillar surged 86% in the first half of 2026, becoming one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks this year.
Burry offered his interpretation of the direct trigger for that day's rally. According to TipRanks, he wrote: "The direct trigger for today's rally was the massive spending plan announced by South Korea. In my view, this is precisely the beginning of the end for this rally. It's just a matter of time now."
In a Single Day, Added Shorts on Nvidia, Applied Materials, SOXX, All with Entry Prices
Caterpillar was not an isolated case. According to reports from Electrek and Investing.com, Burry disclosed the entry prices for short positions established on the same day (June 30) as: Nvidia at $198.09, Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) at $642.80, and Applied Materials at $729.40.
The main focus of the column, however, was not Caterpillar but semiconductors. Burry's argument centers on extreme valuations: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) currently trades more than 65% above its 200-day moving average. This level of extension has only been seen once before in history, at the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble. He also noted that the index's price-to-sales ratio exceeds 16 times, a figure that "remains virtually unchanged" even when excluding Nvidia.
In terms of specific operations, he rolled his put options on SOXX from January 2027 to March 2027, moving the strike price up to just over $400, while maintaining his January puts on the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ). Regarding the potential downturn in semiconductors, he wrote: "It's just a matter of time."
Shorting Tesla at $416.22, But Position Size Not Disclosed
Burry's handling of Tesla differed from the previous positions. According to Yahoo Finance, he wrote: "Finally, I shorted Tesla at $416.22. Glad to see it back there." Tesla had closed at $379.71 the previous trading session and surged about 10% intraday on Tuesday, meaning Burry initiated the short during a rally rather than chasing a decline.
It's worth noting that he did not disclose any size information for the Tesla short—no share count, no dollar amount, and no indication of whether options were used. Caution is warranted when interpreting this. Burry's past Tesla shorts have often been exaggerated by the media: in Q1 2021, Scion's 13F filing showed put options corresponding to 800,100 Tesla shares, which was widely reported as a "$534 million" short. However, that represented the notional value (the market value of the shares based on the closing price), not the actual capital he deployed (the option premiums, which were much smaller). He had closed that position as early as November 2021.
Tesla still fits Burry's overall bearish thesis. Last December, he criticized Tesla's "absurd" share dilution and "absurdly overvalued" valuation, linking it to the trillion-dollar compensation plan for Elon Musk approved by shareholders. In April, after analyzing audit reports of several tech companies over the past decade, he labeled Tesla the "King of Tragedy Layer"—a category of companies where stock-based compensation exceeds both GAAP incentive expenses and cumulative net profit.
A 'Clear-Out Short' at Quarter-End, But Lacking 13F Backing
According to Investing.com, this batch of positions reads more like a quarter-end broadside against assets that have "rallied too far," rather than a judgment on any single stock. Burry has already made a decisive shift to bearish: in Q3 2025, Scion held put options on 5 million shares of Palantir (notional value ~$912 million) and 1 million shares of Nvidia (notional value ~$187 million), with these two exposures alone totaling approximately $1.1 billion. He has repeatedly called out the aggressive data center expansion by Oracle, Google, and Microsoft, warning the market is ignoring the financial risks of heavy capital consumption amidst AI optimism, and has consistently compared the current rally to the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble.
Readers should note: As of this writing, there is no confirmed 13F filing disclosing the Caterpillar short. All current information comes from Burry's own column and social media, not from regulatory filings. The exact size and structure of the positions will only be confirmed with hard data from Scion's next 13F filing.
