链上Pre-IPO全解析：为什么SpaceX、OpenAI的定价权正在上链？

Compiled & Edited by: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Dio Casares, Founder of Patagon

Host: Laura Shin

Podcast Source: Unchained

Original Title: Why SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic Now Trade Onchain

Air Date: May 22, 2026

Key Takeaways

In the latest episode, Dio Casares and Laura Shin delve into how pre-IPO price discovery is migrating onchain. From the newly launched SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual on Hyperliquid to secondary market trading of Anthropic and OpenAI shares, they analyze this trend in depth. Additionally, they discuss the new partnership between Nasdaq Private Market and Polymarket, and its potential impact on the future of private equity.

Key Highlights

Why Onchain Pre-IPO Markets Are Suddenly Heating Up

• "For the crypto audience, a good way to understand pre-IPO perpetuals is to think of them like pre-markets in crypto. Many people should remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with many altcoin pre-markets, so these markets started getting a lot of volume and gradually became the place where most pre-market trades happen."
• "These pre-IPO perpetuals launch shortly before a planned IPO or key event. ... Because they launch so close to the event, they attract more volume and more participants. You can think of them as futures that are about to settle, unlike Ventuals, which have a longer duration and it's unclear when those perpetual futures will eventually settle."

Why OpenAI and Anthropic Deny Secondary Trades

• "First, they want to create a real fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. The essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying shares, but the company or employees don't get funding from it. And these AI companies, to put it bluntly, are high capital consumption. They absorb a lot of cash and then burn through billions of dollars."
• "Anything that hinders raising capital for these high-capital-consumption companies (so-called 'cash incinerators'), especially right before they enter an extremely competitive IPO phase, would be seen as a major problem. ... They are absorbing as much capital as possible. So, for them, restricting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step because it channels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds."
• "The second reason is liability. Usually, when a company deems a transaction credible or approves it, they are also responsible for executing it. ... When these SPVs start liquidating and closing around the IPO, a host of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal liability or simply not wanting the hassle, they want nothing to do with it. Nobody wants to deal with 1,000 different cases."

What Problem Does Onchain Solve Exactly?

• "The reason derivatives markets make more sense than spot markets in crypto is primarily US regulation. In the US, these private stocks usually have a holding period of about 6 months. ... If you don't have a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could break the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and other issues."
• "A lot of spot market volume isn't necessarily in the best interest of these companies, as it competes with their primary rounds. They don't want price discovery to happen this way because it could lead to adverse selection when they are fundraising. The company might say, 'We know you're going to tokenize this, so we won't work with you.'"
• "In tokenized products, if the SPV makes a mistake, or there's any legal issue, or the fund is set up incorrectly, the downstream effects can be catastrophic. Derivatives also have risks, like ADL or price wicks, but these are more like market risks, not someone messing up a contract and nobody getting their money back. For that reason, I prefer the perp side."

Are Private Giants Trading Like Public Companies?

• "To some extent, I agree: these companies have record participation. If you break down the capital going into these companies pre-IPO, there could be tens of thousands of participants. That's not typical for private companies."
• "But to my knowledge, they haven't really promoted secondary markets, meaning they haven't encouraged people to continue buying and selling after investing. Instead, they've been trying to make it very clear to investors: 'If you invest, you should hold until the IPO or a similar liquidity event.'"

Ways and Risks of Getting In Before the IPO

• "These are late-stage companies. Once you get into second and third-tier structures, it becomes a dangerous legal 'hot potato' game around these shares, something most people would want to avoid."
• "There's a real risk: many banks and brokers might say, 'We don't know if this trade is valid, so we can't allow you to sell these shares.' ... If the main bank account for an SPV is at JP Morgan and JP Morgan says 'We can't help you sell these shares,' they suddenly enter a race against time: to open a new account, which isn't easy; and then transfer the shares from the original account to another broker's account."
• "Another scenario is someone might say: 'I did agree to sell these to you, but now the trades are deemed invalid, so I'm just returning your money.' This would most likely lead to litigation. They might eventually lose, but you'd still have to sue them. So, depending on the tools and structures, many different risks emerge."

Legal Boundaries: Robinhood, FTX, and Different Structures

• "As for whether they violate securities laws, and whether companies like OpenAI can effectively stop firms like Robinhood from offering these products, this remains a legal gray area. Regardless, these products haven't gained significant traction overall. The main reason is that these assets aren't truly liquid."
• "The batch of Anthropic shares held by FTX, along with many other shares and assets FTX held, were typically sold without any encumbrances. That means Anthropic's right of first refusal (ROFR) on those shares was completely waived, transfer restrictions were waived, and other limitations were removed."
• "If you hold Anthropic shares related to a FTX claim, i.e., the shares FTX bought, you might be among the safest people besides direct investors approved by the company, because it has a different legal status attached."

The Landscape of Players in the Private Secondary Market

• "On the perpetual side, there's Trade.xyz, which is HIP-3; Ventuals, which is an earlier protocol and also HIP-3; and some new projects, like a friend of mine working on Entropy, which will also be HIP-3. They might offer some pre-markets earlier than Trade.xyz. You'll see these markets largely clustering around Hyperliquid."
• "I think Solana is more retail-oriented, and for some reason, people are more willing to experiment there. There's also a significant overlap between crypto and AI. ... There are many people willing to take high risks, there's a lot of capital, and they're already used to operating on Solana. They prefer to invest in these projects without needing to open a bank account, go through cumbersome paperwork, or rely on personal connections for direct share allocations like in traditional finance."

Patagon's Positioning and the Onchain Boundary

• "We previously looked at perpetuals in the private market to see if we should talk to some clients about hedging pre-IPO risk, which itself is a bit of a gray area, maybe using perpetuals instead of something like IBKR. ... We don't want to upset the companies we're on the cap table for. Launching tokenized versions of their stock, or launching pre-IPO markets (especially very early ones), is an easy way to make them very angry."

Why Pre-IPO Perpetuals Could Continue to Expand

• "Many world-changing and market-moving events now happen on weekends, which is a huge advantage for 24/7 tradable RWA perpetuals. Pre-IPO perpetuals are the same. Once they convert, they become regular RWA perpetuals."
• "I'm not sure how the pre-IPO market will develop, but this year we have a historic number of IPOs. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all trying to hit trillion-dollar-plus valuations, which has never happened before. ... It's definitely a good time for pre-IPO perpetuals to start gaining more attention."

Why Onchain Pre-IPO Markets Are Suddenly Heating Up

Host Laura Shin: This week, or more accurately, over the past few weeks, there's been a lot of action in the pre-IPO market, especially onchain. This week saw a major new launch on Hyperliquid: the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual. Around the same time, Polymarket announced a new type of event contract where users can bet on unicorn valuations, IPO dates, secondary market pricing, etc., in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market. Last week, Anthropic and OpenAI announced they were voiding a batch of secondary market share trades, causing significant controversy.

According to data from Allium Research, Hyperliquid's pre-IPO activity was about $3 million in February, but reached $44 million a few days ago. Your take? Why is this activity emerging now?

Dio Casares:

I think a big reason is that the timing is very strategic. For the crypto audience, a good way to understand pre-IPO perpetuals is to think of them like pre-markets in crypto. Many people should remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with many altcoin pre-markets, so these markets started getting a lot of volume and gradually became the place where most pre-market trades happen.

When these tokens officially launch, the opening price is usually quite close to the price formed in the pre-market. And once they become regular perpetuals with normal oracles, Hyperliquid manages to retain most of the volume.

So what we're seeing with Cerebras and now SpaceX is that these pre-IPO perpetuals launch shortly before a planned IPO or key event. I think the relevant timeframe for SpaceX is around the 17th of next month, just three or four weeks away. Because they launch so close to the event, they attract more volume and more participants. You can think of them as futures that are about to settle, unlike Ventuals, which have a longer duration and it's unclear when those perpetual futures will eventually settle.

Why OpenAI and Anthropic Deny Secondary Trades

Host Laura Shin: In my initial question, I mentioned several different types of activities: the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual, the Polymarket news, and the events with Anthropic and OpenAI. Some of these happen off-chain, some onchain. They represent different zones or segments within this pre-IPO phase. How would you summarize what these news pieces represent?

Dio Casares:

The reasons why OpenAI and Anthropic stepped up to say "we will not honor these trades" are roughly twofold.

First, they want to create a real fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. Because the essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying shares, but the company or employees don't get funding from it. And these AI companies, to put it bluntly, are high capital consumption. They absorb a lot of cash and then burn through billions of dollars.

Anything that hinders raising capital for these high-capital-consumption companies (so-called "cash incinerators"), especially right before they enter an extremely competitive IPO phase, would be seen as a major problem. Currently, SpaceX is expected to go public first, followed by Anthropic, then OpenAI. These companies are trying to absorb as much capital as possible. Therefore, for them, restricting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step because it channels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds.

The second reason is liability. Usually, when a company deems a transaction credible or approves it, they are also responsible for executing it. That means, on the company's cap table, ensuring that the buyer actually receives the shares at or before the IPO.

You can imagine, there might be hundreds or thousands of SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and other entities in the market. They could face lawsuits, and the structures could be very complex. When these SPVs start liquidating and closing around the IPO, a host of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal liability or simply not wanting the hassle, they want nothing to do with it. Nobody wants to deal with 1,000 different cases.

So they are very loudly stating now: "This is not our problem. If you're not in an approved block, we can't help you." They are choosing to make this clear loudly before any IPO issues arise. In summary, it's about maximizing the cash they can secure while minimizing their legal liability.

What Problem Does Onchain Solve Exactly?

Host Laura Shin: We've already touched a bit on the various problems in this market and why some think onchain solutions can fix them. But could you specifically list, for both buyers and sellers, what problems are they trying to solve by going onchain?

Dio Casares:

Going onchain can be broken down into two markets: the derivatives market and the spot market. The derivatives market has many advantages. Like most derivatives, it is primarily a hedging tool. Many people I know using this market use it as a way to hedge their existing spot positions or direct investments.

I believe the reason derivatives markets make more sense than spot markets in crypto is primarily US regulation. In the US, these private stocks usually have a holding period of about 6 months. There might be ways around it, but generally, it's 6 months. If you don't have a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could break the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and other issues.

So once you tokenize something that represents some ownership interest in these companies, US regulators can easily say it violates the relevant rules. I think this is a huge hurdle for many tokenization products.

Another problem loops back to our earlier topic: a lot of spot market volume isn't necessarily in the best interest of these companies, as it competes with their primary rounds. They don't want price discovery to happen this way because it could lead to adverse selection when they are fundraising. The company might say, "We know you're going to tokenize this, so we won't work