每周 편집 추천 Weekly Editor's Picks (0509-0515)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-05-16 02:32

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핵심 의견: 이번 주 블록체인 및 암호화폐 시장은 규제 정책(CLARITY 법안)과 지정학적 이슈(NACHO 거래)가 자산 가격과 시장 구조에 미치는 이중적 영향에 집중되었습니다. 동시에 퍼블릭 체인(공개 블록체인)의 자금 조달 열풍과 CeFi의 새로운 서사(Uniswap v4 Hook)가 시장에 새로운 변수를 제공했지만, HYPE 등 자산의 높은 FDV와 미해제 매도 압박 리스크는 주의해야 할 사항입니다.
핵심 요소:
1. 월가에서 'NACHO' 거래가 부상하고 있습니다. 이는 호르무즈 해협의 지속적 폐쇄에 베팅하며, 보험, 유가 및 금리 인하 시장을 통해 지정학적 리스크에 대응하는 방식으로, 이전의 '트럼프 굴복'에 베팅했던 TACO 거래를 대체했습니다.
2. Bitwise 보고서에 따르면, 최상위 자본들은 스테이블코인 및 자산 토큰화 시나리오에 특화된 Arc, Canton, Tempo 등 새로운 퍼블릭 체인에 베팅하고 있습니다. 자본의 움직임은 규제 입법을 따르며, 프라이버시 보호가 핵심 적용 방향이 되고 있습니다.
3. 일부 의견에 따르면 HYPE이 다시 두 배로 상승하기는 어렵습니다. 그 이유는 토큰의 75%가 잠금 해제되지 않아 매도 압박이 존재하고, 현재 FDV가 전통 거래소의 평가 가치에 근접했으며, 신규 매수자의 출처가 불분명하고 규제, 해킹 등 여러 리스크에 직면해 있기 때문입니다.
4. CLARITY 법안이 통과되면 기관의 시장 진입 장벽이 제거될 것입니다. CFTC는 DeFi에 대한 관할권을 명확히 하여, 이익을 추구하는 자금이 유휴 스테이블코인 상품에서 이탈하여 Pendle, Morpho 등 규정 준수 수익형 프로토콜로 유입될 것입니다.
5. Uniswap v4 Hook 메커니즘 토큰(예: sato, Lo0p)이 시장의 새로운 서사를 촉발하고 생태계 발전을 이끌고 있지만, UNI의 단기 상승 폭은 제한적입니다.
6. LayerZero는 Kelp DAO 공격 사건으로 인해 신뢰 위기에 직면했으며, 자금은 Chainlink의 CCIP 프로토콜로의 이동이 가속화되고 있습니다. 체인상 데이터가 증가함에 따라 Chainlink가 이번 위기의 수혜자가 되고 있습니다.
7. Grayscale은 이더리움 스테이킹 모델을 수정할 것을 제안했습니다. 즉, 보상 상한 곡선을 설정하여 ETH 인플레이션을 통제하고 가치 저장 수단으로서의 서사를 강화하는 것입니다. 이는 단기 스테이킹 수익률을 낮추지만 장기 가격에는 긍정적입니다.

The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The 'Weekly Editor's Pick' column sifts through the vast amount of news to bring you content of judgmental value, helping to filter out the noise, leaving insights and inspiration.

Macro

'TACO' is Outdated, Wall Street Rises with 'NACHO' Trades

NACHO, which stands for 'Not A Chance Hormuz Opens', suggests there is no chance the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

It is the antonymous version of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). TACO bets on 'people backing down,' with Trump retreating at a critical moment. NACHO bets on 'situations being deadlocked,' that this time, the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened by a single Truth Social post.

NACHO is not just talk; it is the same bet placed with real money across three independent derivatives markets: insurance, oil prices, and interest rate cuts.

Now, the market no longer trades on Trump's next Truth Social post but has started trading on the early June inventory data for the Strait of Hormuz.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

After 50x Storage, Justin Sun is Always Looking at the Next Decade

"In the short term, a chip shortage; in the long term, an energy shortage; there is always a storage shortage."

In early 2026, Justin Sun's predictions were: embodied intelligence, drones, spatial computing, and space exploration.

Anthropic and OpenAI Have Severed the Logic of Pre-IPO Equity Tokens

Anthropic and OpenAI have successively stated they 'do not recognize unauthorized stock transfers.' The risk of SPVs being excessively financialized through 'matryoshka doll' structures is starting to emerge. Reflected at the market level, pre-IPO equity tokens have plummeted, while contracts remain relatively stable.

Anthropic and OpenAI's public 'fact-checking' is, to some extent, redrawing boundaries for this wildly growing new market. For speculators, it's a lesson in risk; but for the long-term development of the industry, the market might also need such a 'de-bubbling' moment.

Bitwise: Why are Top VCs Frantically Betting on New Public Chains?

Three public chains, Arc, Canton, and Tempo, are all tailor-made for stablecoin and asset tokenization scenarios.

The key takeaway from this wave of concentrated funding frenzy is: Capital always follows regulatory legislation; privacy protection may become a phenomenon-level core application.

Niche Viewpoint: Why HYPE is Unlikely to Double Again

75% of the yet-to-be-unlocked token supply means continuous selling pressure in the future; the current FDV is already approaching or exceeding the valuation range of some traditional exchanges; and at this price, who the new marginal buyers are – retail, traditional institutions, or crypto funds – still lacks a sufficiently clear answer.

More importantly, HYPE faces not just valuation issues but also risks such as regulation, hacking, key person dependency, and liquidity migration of traders.

For an asset that has already been fully noted by the market and heavily shilled by KOLs, the real question is no longer 'does it have a narrative?' but 'at this price, who will continue to buy?'. When a crypto asset goes from being an alpha to a consensus, investors need to re-evaluate not just how good the project itself is, but whether the current price has already discounted the future.

AI

The Semiconductor Century: Investment Roadmap for the 2026 AI Frenzy

High-value AI chips contribute about half of the industry's revenue but account for less than 0.2% of total shipments. Semiconductors have evolved from consumer electronic components into strategic assets for giants with market caps exceeding $10 trillion.

The four key roles in the supply chain are: designers (architects), foundries (manufacturers), equipment suppliers (tool providers), and memory makers (storage layer).

Key companies worth researching include: NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, AMD, Broadcom (AVGO), and SK Hynix.

Semiconductor ETFs include: SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF), SOXQ (Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF).

Key catalysts to watch: the trillion-dollar market cap milestone, TSMC's Arizona fab production ramp-up, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform deployment, AMD's market share progress, memory pricing, and HBM4 supply.

Policy & Stablecoins

When Stablecoins Stop Yielding: 7 DeFi Protocols Benefiting from the CLARITY Act

Once the CLARITY Act is officially enacted, it will immediately trigger two major changes: Institutional funds clear the entry barrier.

BlackRock, Apollo, Deutsche Bank, pension funds, corporate treasury funds, etc., have been on the sidelines. Compliance teams couldn't assess whether related assets were securities, so they dared not allocate heavily. Now with the CFTC's clear jurisdiction and a safe harbor for DeFi, institutions can finally enter on a large scale. Yield-seeking capital will abandon idle stablecoin savings. The days of parking USDC on exchanges to effortlessly earn ~5% APY will be over. Tens of billions of dollars seeking stable returns must find new allocation outlets.

Therefore, two massive flows of capital (institutional investors finally entering + retail investors seeking yield) will converge on the same type of target: compliant products with real business use cases and structured yields.

Protocols tailored for this new regulatory landscape include: Pendle (underlying yield infrastructure layer), Morpho (on-chain prime broker), Sky (USDS / sUSDS), Maple Finance (on-chain credit trading desk), Centrifuge (RWA asset native issuance layer), and protocols relying on STRC assets (fixed-income track).

Also recommended: 'Earnings Report, Legislation, Fed... Circle Faces Three Major Tests This Week', 'CLARITY Act Drafted: Ethereum the Biggest Winner?', 'Under the CLARITY Act, XRP and the New Order of the Crypto Market'.

CeFi & DeFi

Is Hook Summer Really Here? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite a New Uniswap v4 Narrative

Following ASTEROID, ecosystem tokens backed by the Uniswap v4 Hook protocol, such as sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD, have gradually become the market's focus. Their market caps range from millions to tens of millions of dollars, bringing much-needed concentrated liquidity to the narrative-dry crypto market.

Toknens leveraging the Hook mechanism drive Uniswap ecosystem development: UNI is bullish long-term, but short-term gains are limited.

$3 Billion DeFi Exodus: LayerZero Stumbles, Chainlink Feasts

The rescue efforts following the Kelp DAO exploit have also seen substantive progress recently. However, more difficult to repair than the financial damage is market trust.

LayerZero, the cross-chain leader at the center of this storm, is facing an accelerated exodus of protocols. It was forced to rapidly change its stance within weeks, from initially deflecting blame to publicly apologizing and initiating a remediation plan. Chainlink, however, unexpectedly emerged as a beneficiary of this crisis, with its CCIP protocol absorbing a large portion of the migrating liquidity, evidenced by a significant increase in on-chain data.

Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides

Popular Interaction Compilation | The Beacon Season 1 Pre-registration; GenLayer Latest Testnet Interaction (May 15)

Circle Publishes Arc Whitepaper, What Early Interaction Opportunities Exist?

Meme

From the A9 Myth to Millions in Debt: The 5-Year Rise and Fall of a Meme Trader

Ethereum & Scaling

Grayscale: Ethereum's Staking Model Needs a Change

Ethereum's current staking reward model faces two structural problems: L2 sharding leads to lower token burn and higher net issuance; the staking threshold approaches zero, potentially locking nearly all ETH into staking.

The community is discussing setting a staking reward cap curve, which Grayscale believes is positive for ETH's long-term value. The Ethereum community is considering modifying the network's staking reward model, with the core idea being to incentivize staking only up to a certain percentage, offering no additional rewards beyond that.

If implemented, nominal yields for stakers would decrease. However, Grayscale believes this is good for ETH's long-term price for two reasons: controlling ETH inflation and strengthening the narrative of ETH as a store of value asset.