World Cup is approaching, the battle for the gateway to prediction markets has begun

In the early hours of June 12, the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico officially kicked off.

As the most globally followed sporting event, the World Cup is more than just a direct contest between players on the pitch. Who will lift the trophy? Which team will be the ultimate dark horse? Who will take home the Golden Boot? Months before the tournament began, hundreds of millions of fans have been actively discussing and predicting these outcomes on social media.

Unlike previous editions, fans this year, besides engaging in online debates or participating in traditional betting (which often has strict regional legal restrictions), have a new tool: Prediction Markets. This novel on-chain probability perception tool, born from the cryptocurrency world, is becoming the biggest off-field attraction of this World Cup.

The appeal of prediction markets lies in transforming collective wisdom into profitable odds. Over the past few years, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have broken into the mainstream through numerous global macro events, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market trends. Their high sensitivity to information feedback has led many mainstream media outlets to regard them as "more accurate barometers than traditional polls."

However, for a long time, prediction markets have felt like an exclusive battleground for native crypto users. For an average fan attracted by the World Cup, participating often requires overcoming a steep learning curve – wallets, seed phrases, on-boarding, gas fees, smart contracts, approvals, transactions... These concepts, familiar to crypto insiders, objectively create significant entry barriers for a massive influx of new users, potentially deterring 90% of interested potential participants.

In other words, while prediction markets have proven their product and value, they have been stuck in the "last mile" towards mass adoption due to the cumbersome experience of underlying infrastructure.

Analyzing CEX Channel Value: The Gate.io Example

To address this industry pain point, major centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Gate.io are integrating (or building their own) prediction market products and redesigning the user experience to break down the complex barriers facing new users.

Gate.io is a prime example. As the first CEX to directly integrate Polymarket, Gate.io has established a classic partnership model: Polymarket acts as the underlying layer providing event access, matching engine, and settlement capabilities; Gate.io acts as the channel, offering an on-chain trading entry point and account system. Users can execute all transactions directly using their Gate.io accounts and USDT. As of June 16, 2026, Gate.io's prediction market product has accumulated over $251 million in trading volume, with a single-day peak of nearly $69 million, ranking first in nominal trading volume among over 300 channels partnered with Polymarket.

For ordinary users, the most direct value of this channel is the lower barrier to entry and optimized interaction experience.

Within Gate.io's product framework, users no longer need to worry about complex steps like creating wallets, cross-chain asset transfers, paying gas fees, or on-chain approvals. They simply log in to their account and use USDT to participate directly in prediction market trading. The overall process feels no different from spot or futures trading. Simultaneously, Gate.io retains Web3 wallet access for experienced on-chain users, offering greater flexibility between convenience and a native experience.

Specifically, regarding the trading experience, Gate.io provides two different interaction modes: "Prediction Mode" and "Trading Mode."

• Prediction Mode is better suited for ordinary users. In this mode, users only need to select "Yes" or "No," enter the amount to participate, and confirm the transaction. The system simultaneously displays the corresponding probability and potential returns, compressing the entire operation into a simplified three-step flow.
• Advanced users with trading experience can opt for Trading Mode. This mode provides more professional market tools, including order books, candlestick charts, and depth data. Here, the prediction market transcends simple betting on final outcomes, evolving into a real-time pricing and trading market centered around probability changes.

In terms of trading flexibility, Gate.io allows users to engage in "two-way trading" at any time. This means participants can buy or sell their positions at any time before the final event settlement, based on changing market expectations, without needing to hold until the result is announced. As match progress, macro events, or market sentiment change, the corresponding contract prices fluctuate accordingly. This flexibility creates more dynamic trading opportunities for users.

Regarding the scope of trading, Gate.io's prediction market currently covers multiple popular areas including sports events, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, and traditional financial markets. Whether it's the World Cup winner, Bitcoin's price trajectory, or the direction of global hot topics, users can find corresponding prediction markets to participate in.

However, this alone is clearly insufficient for the widespread adoption of prediction markets. From a product design perspective, Gate.io aims to transform prediction markets from a relatively niche on-chain tool into a complete information discovery and trading system.

For most users, another practical problem with participating in prediction markets is: even if the operational barrier is significantly lowered, it's still difficult to answer the core question of "what to buy." After all, prediction markets are fundamentally a game of information and cognition. Compared to the trading act itself, the ability to obtain timely information, understand shifts in market sentiment, and identify potential opportunities is often the decisive factor for the final outcome.

Addressing this need, Gate.io has built a relatively comprehensive information support system alongside its trading functions.

• Smart Money Leaderboard: Quickly identifies "smart money" and active traders in the market, showing their historical profitability, holdings, and trading trajectories. For inexperienced new users, this transparent on-chain behavior display mechanism lowers the cost of information acquisition and provides additional dimensions for market observation.
• Market Dynamics Monitoring: Users can track specific wallet addresses or key subjects. When tracked accounts execute new trades, the system automatically pushes notifications. For users wanting to follow whale movements or learn from experienced traders' strategies, this tool effectively enhances market observation efficiency.
• Live Zone & Real-time Updates: Aggregates hot event progress, market dynamics, and real-time trading data, helping users quickly grasp the most discussed topics.
• AI Insights: Integrates various viewpoints and latest developments around popular market events, helping users quickly understand the logic behind events and improve trading decision efficiency, offering multiple perspectives for judgment.

From discovering hot topics and tracking market sentiment, to observing smart money moves, analyzing AI and capital flows, and finally making trading decisions, Gate.io is attempting to build not just a simple Polymarket channel, but a complete participation pipeline covering information acquisition, opinion formation, and trade execution.

The World Cup is Here: From Watching to Participating

If the value of prediction markets lies in transforming collective judgment into market probabilities, then the World Cup is undoubtedly one of their most ideal use cases.

Compared to macroeconomic events, football matches feature higher-frequency information changes, broader participation, and more intense emotional swings. From pre-match lineup announcements and injury news, to every goal, yellow/red card, and tactical adjustment during the game, these factors can rapidly alter market expectations for the match outcome, directly reflected in the price changes of the corresponding prediction market.

Specifically for the World Cup, a premier global sports IP, Gate.io recently launched a dedicated World Cup theme zone, consolidating the match schedule, standings, popular prediction markets, and event updates in one place.

For fans, without needing to switch between different pages, they can quickly browse matches, obtain information, and participate in predictions all within Gate.io. The zone also features a match calendar and match-start reminder function. Users can add interesting matches to their watchlist and receive notifications before they begin, ensuring they don't miss key matches and related prediction opportunities. During matches, the Live real-time dynamic feature further strengthens the connection between prediction markets and the viewing experience. Match progress, hot events, and market trading dynamics update synchronously, allowing users to watch the scoreline change on the pitch while observing the market's real-time pricing of the game's flow.

From a practical experience standpoint, the entire World Cup participation process has been deliberately simplified by Gate.io. Users entering a specific match page need only select "Yes" or "No" for a particular outcome, enter the amount, and confirm the transaction to place their order. As the match progresses, users can either hold their position until the final result is announced or trade their position early based on market price changes.

From this perspective, prediction markets are changing the World Cup viewing experience. For participants, they are not just trading the match result itself; they are trading their judgment on how the match will unfold and the market consensus as it adjusts with incoming information.

Prediction Markets' Next Stop: From Crypto Circles to the Mass Market

Looking back at the development over the past few years, prediction markets have actually completed the most difficult step – proving the effectiveness and market value of the product.

From the US presidential election and macroeconomic events to global sports spectacles like the World Cup, a growing number of cases demonstrate that when enough people commit real money expressing opinions about the same event, markets can reflect shifts in collective expectations faster than traditional polls, expert predictions, and even some media reports.

However, on the other hand, prediction markets clearly still have some distance to go before achieving true mass adoption.

For a long time, crypto-native infrastructure like wallets, gas fees, and on-chain interactions, while forming the underlying framework for prediction markets to function, has also unintentionally limited their user base. For the vast majority of ordinary people, they might be willing to express their judgment on a World Cup match, an interest rate decision, or a market hot topic, but they are not necessarily willing to learn a complex set of on-chain operating procedures to do so.

This implies that the focus of the next phase of competition for prediction markets might no longer be who can build a more effective product, but who can attract more users into the market.

From this angle, centralized exchanges, social platforms, and even more internet products could become crucial entry points for the future of prediction markets. Whichever entity can package the complex underlying mechanisms, reaching ordinary users with lower learning costs and smoother product experiences, will have a greater chance of driving prediction markets from a crypto-native application to the mass market.

This is precisely the path Gate.io is attempting. By replacing wallet hurdles with an account system, substituting complex on-chain interactions with familiar trading experiences, and building a complete product system around information discovery, opinion exchange, and trading decisions, prediction markets are gradually evolving from a professional tool for a few on-chain players into a new type of market that more ordinary users can understand, participate in, and benefit from.

When prediction markets cease to be an on-chain experiment for the few and become an open market where anyone can express opinions, discover consensus, and trade judgments, their real growth story may be just beginning.

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate.io may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from users in restricted regions. Please read the User Agreement for more information.