BIT 투자 연구: SpaceX, 1조 달러 가치 평가를 향해 질주, 시장은 대체 무엇에 베팅하고 있는가?
- 핵심 관점: SpaceX의 가치 평가 논리는 기존 로켓 기업에서 AI, 글로벌 연결 및 우주 인프라를 포괄하는 플랫폼형 자산으로 변화하고 있다. 약 2조 3천억 달러의 시장 내재 가치 평가는 높은 성장 기대치를 반영하지만, 유동성 압박과 가치 평가 규율 리스크에 대한 경계가 필요하다.
- 핵심 요소:
- SpaceX의 xAI 인수는 그 주소 지정 가능 시장(Total Addressable Market)을 약 28조 5천억 달러로 끌어올렸으며, 이 중 AI 시장이 26조 5천억 달러를 차지해 전통적인 우주 사업의 0.4조 달러를 훨씬 상회한다.
- Binance 및 Hyperliquid의 SpaceX Pre-IPO 무기한 선물 가격은 1조 7,500억 달러 목표 가치 대비 약 34% 프리미엄을 기록하며, 약 2조 3천억 달러의 내재 시가총액에 해당한다.
- Starlink의 2025년 매출은 114억 달러(전년 대비 50% 증가)에 달하고 EBITDA 마진은 63%이지만, 사용자당 평균 수익(ARPU)은 99달러에서 66달러로 감소하여 성장 효율성에 의문이 제기된다.
- 현재 가치 평가는 대략 매출의 100배 수준으로 대부분의 대형 기술 기업을 훨씬 상회하며, 지속적인 성장 서사와 실행 능력 강화가 뒷받침되어야 한다.
- IPO를 통해 약 860억 달러를 조달할 것으로 예상되며, 200억 달러의 브릿지론(Bridge Loan)은 고수익 부채를 대체하는 데 사용된다. 락업(Lock-up) 일정으로 인해 지속적인 유동성 압박이 발생할 수 있다.
- 글로벌 우주 경제 규모는 2023년 6,300억 달러에서 2033년 1조 8천억 달러로 성장할 것으로 예상되며, 발사 비용 하락과 AI 시너지 효과 강화가 핵심 동력이다.
The market is currently repricing around what could be SpaceX's largest-ever IPO. While most investors focus on its target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, perhaps more noteworthy is the evolving growth narrative it represents. With SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, the market is beginning to view it as a platform asset covering AI, global connectivity networks, and space infrastructure, rather than merely a rocket company.
From a market pricing perspective, SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid are trading at a premium of about 34% to the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market cap of roughly $2.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a larger story in advance, and investors must judge whether this narrative can support such a high valuation.
From Rocket Company to Infrastructure Platform: SpaceX's Valuation Logic is Being Reconstructed
The combination of SpaceX and xAI pushes its total addressable market (TAM) to approximately $28.5 trillion. Within this, the AI-related market accounts for about $26.5 trillion, global connectivity networks $1.6 trillion, and traditional space operations merely $0.4 trillion.
This indicates that what the market is truly pricing is not Mars exploration, but broader infrastructure value derived from data centers, AI, and global communications networks. As SpaceX's core asset, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined from $99 three years ago to $66. Whether future user growth and profitability can improve in tandem will be a key factor determining valuation.
Meanwhile, SpaceX's current valuation corresponds to approximately 100 times its price-to-sales ratio, far exceeding most large tech companies. Such a high valuation requires not only a continuously strengthening growth narrative but also the company's sustained strong execution over many years.
Behind the High Valuation: IPO Liquidity and Space Economy Expansion Expectations
Since 2002, SpaceX has raised a cumulative total of only about $12 billion in primary market funding. This IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion and could generate around $800 million in underwriting fees for Wall Street. Additionally, in March 2026, SpaceX signed a $20 billion bridge loan to replace high-yield debt related to X and xAI, making this listing also significant for optimizing its balance sheet.
Notably, SpaceX has adopted a relatively flexible lock-up arrangement. Some early investors can sell up to 20% of their eligible shares after the first quarterly earnings report, and additional shares will be unlocked if the stock price rises 30% above the issue price. This means the market will face ongoing liquidity tests post-IPO and explains why the market narrative surrounding SpaceX needs constant reinforcement to absorb potential future supply pressure.
From a longer-term perspective, the market's core bet remains on the expansion of the space economy. Mainstream forecasts suggest the global space economy could grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033. As launch costs continue to decline, the synergies between satellite networks, orbital data, and AI applications are increasing, and true value may gradually shift towards the platform and application layers.
Overall, SpaceX's current valuation already reflects high market expectations, making valuation discipline crucial in the short term. For investors, the focus should perhaps not be limited to SpaceX itself, but on the long-term trends it represents—the increasing convergence of AI, global connectivity networks, space infrastructure, and digital assets. If this trend continues to evolve, related publicly listed companies and space economy-themed assets could also become important windows for observing this narrative.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets carry risks, and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
