BIT 투자 연구: 연준 수장 교체, 비트코인 새로운 순풍 맞이
- 핵심 견해: 이 기사는 연준의 잠재적 지도부 교체(Kevin Warsh 취임)와 정책 전환 기대가 비트코인의 ‘통화 가치 하락 헤지’라는 거시적 내러티브를 어떻게 강화하는지 분석합니다. 동시에 단기적인 고인플레이션과 양적 긴축이 위험 자산에 미치는 혼란을 지적합니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 연준의 정책 주기는 비트코인 내러티브 진화의 핵심 거시적 배경입니다: Bernanke의 양적 완화가 내러티브 기반을 제공하고, Yellen 시기에 주류로 진입했으며, Powell 임기 동안 고금리 스트레스 테스트를 견디며 생존했습니다.
- 2024년 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인은 중요한 전환점으로, ‘통화 가치 하락 거래’가 공식적으로 기관 주류 내러티브에 진입했음을 의미하며, 비트코인이 주변 자산에서 거시적 자산으로 전환되었음을 공고히 했습니다.
- 잠재적 후임자 Warsh의 핵심 주장(대차대조표 축소, 금리 도구 강조, CBDC 반대)은 ‘통화 구매력 하락’ 내러티브를 강화하며, 공급이 고정된 비트코인에 유리합니다.
- 단기 거시적 혼란은 현저합니다: 유가가 100달러 이상으로 상승하고, 에너지 공급 긴축 및 AI 투자 수요가 인플레이션을 높일 수 있어 시장 기대는 금리 인하에서 금리 인상 가능성으로 전환되고 있습니다.
- 미국 연방 부채는 약 39조 달러로 증가했습니다. 양적 긴축이 재정의 지속적인 국채 발행과 함께 너무 빠르게 진행될 경우, 장기 금리 상승이 위험 자산에 압력을 가할 수 있습니다.
The current market is in a phase of macro repricing driven by policy expectations. The Federal Reserve leadership may be on the cusp of a new transition. If Kevin Warsh takes over, he could bring new policy approaches regarding the interest rate trajectory, the balance sheet, and the inflation framework. Concurrently, the debt environment and monetary system, which have been expanding for over a decade, are intensifying the market's reassessment of "monetary purchasing power."
Looking back at Bitcoin's development path, its birth following the 2008 financial crisis significantly overlaps with multiple rounds of the Fed's quantitative easing. From the large-scale balance sheet expansion under Ben Bernanke, to market skepticism during Janet Yellen's tenure, to the stress test of an interest rate environment above 5% under Jerome Powell, Bitcoin has continuously reshaped its market positioning across different policy phases. Notably, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, the "currency debasement trade" has gradually entered the mainstream institutional narrative.
Against this backdrop, potential shifts in the Fed's policy direction are becoming a crucial variable influencing the Bitcoin narrative.
Monetary Cycle Evolution: From Quantitative Easing to Tightening, Bitcoin Completes a Narrative Reshaping
Over the past decade, the Federal Reserve's policy cycle has provided the evolving macro backdrop for Bitcoin. The quantitative easing under Bernanke prompted the market to first pay systematic attention to the issue of fiat currency expansion, laying the foundation for Bitcoin's narrative as a "fixed-supply asset." During Yellen's term, Bitcoin's price rose from around $300 to nearly $17,000, gradually entering the mainstream view, though it was still widely regarded as a highly volatile speculative asset.
Entering the Powell era, Bitcoin underwent a more complex cyclical test. Early interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions led its price to drop over 80% from its 2017 highs. Subsequently, during the pandemic, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by nearly $3 trillion within weeks, reinforcing the market's perception of "monetary expansion." In 2021–2022, Bitcoin surged to $69,000 only to retrace by about 75%, demonstrating that it still possessed risk-asset characteristics.
However, a key shift occurred in 2024: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs gradually brought the "currency debasement trade" into institutional acceptance. Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt has climbed to approximately $39 trillion. Bitcoin, despite high interest rates, has not exited the mainstream market and has completed a transitional phase from a fringe asset to a macro asset.
Policy Shift and Uncertainty: Strengthening and Disrupting the Bitcoin Narrative Under a Potential Warsh Path
Under a potential new policy framework, Warsh's core propositions include: reducing the balance sheet, re-emphasizing the interest rate tool, and establishing a new inflation policy mechanism. He stated during a hearing on April 21, 2026, that the inflation of 2021–2022 was one of the biggest policy mistakes in the past 40-50 years, and that the cumulative 25%–35% price increase since 2020 continues to affect household living costs.
From Bitcoin's perspective, this assessment somewhat reinforces the "currency debasement narrative." If the Fed acknowledges the long-term impact of past balance sheet expansion, the market will reassess the stability of the monetary system, which supports Bitcoin given its emphasis on fixed supply. Concurrently, Warsh's firm opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) also weakens a potential competitive path previously seen as an institutional alternative to Bitcoin.
However, the short-term macro environment still contains significant disruptions. On one hand, oil prices have risen above $100, and tightening energy supply has shifted market expectations from "three rate cuts this year" to pricing in the possibility of rate hikes. On the other hand, the energy demand stemming from AI infrastructure investments could push inflation higher before productivity dividends materialize. Internal models even suggest that a scenario where CPI rises to 6% cannot be ruled out.
Furthermore, if balance sheet reduction proceeds too quickly against the backdrop of ongoing U.S. fiscal debt issuance, long-term interest rates could rise, thereby pressuring risk assets. Additionally, if inflation is systematically underestimated, it could also undermine the institutional credibility of the Fed.
Some of the above views are sourced from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and uncertainty. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
