卫冕还是新王登基？世界杯决赛，AI们竟站到同一边

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Beijing time, July 20th at 3 AM, the 2026 World Cup final will be decided between Argentina and Spain. On one side is Argentina, attempting to defend their title and win consecutive World Cups; on the other is Spain, who have maintained stability throughout the tournament, reaching the final with an almost impenetrable defense.

Spain's path to the final has demonstrated remarkable stability. After entering the knockout stage, they defeated Austria, Portugal, Belgium, and France, maintaining control of the game even against strong opponents. Particularly in the semi-final against France, Spain gave Mbappe's forward line little space to counter-attack, ultimately advancing with a 2-0 victory. Conceding only one goal in seven matches and keeping six clean sheets, their solid defense and strong midfield control have been the foundation of their success.

Argentina's path, however, has been filled with danger and comebacks. After the knockout stage began, they barely won any match comfortably. Against Cape Verde and Egypt, Argentina won 3-2 each time. In the quarter-final against Switzerland, they only scored consecutive goals in extra time. In the semi-final against England, they were still trailing in the 85th minute but relied on Messi's consecutive assists for Enzo and Lautaro to complete the comeback.

Furthermore, this final carries a story almost like a movie script.

During a charity photoshoot in 2007, a young Messi bathed Yamal, who was still a baby. No one imagined at that time that nearly 20 years later, the two would face each other for the first time in their careers in a World Cup final.

Now, Messi is 39 years old, and Yamal has just turned 19. One may be playing in his last World Cup match, while the other stands at the threshold of his own era. An old photo spanning nearly 20 years adds a layer of generational transition to this final.

Before the AI predictions for who will lift the trophy, let's review their performances in the two semi-finals (Related reading: Semi-final AI prediction battle: Is France a sure bet? England vs Argentina outcome uncertain).

Most Semi-final Predictions were Wrong; Gemini Got Both Right

In the World Cup quarter-finals, all 6 AIs correctly predicted the advancement of France, Spain, England, and Argentina. However, by the semi-finals, the overall prediction performance of the AIs was somewhat lackluster.

For France vs. Spain, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen not only favored France to advance but all predicted a 2-1 victory for France. Five models believed France could exploit the space left by Spain's advancing full-backs with quick counter-attacks. In the end, France failed to execute the expected counter-attacks and instead was controlled by Spain, losing 0-2. Gemini, the only one to choose Spain, correctly predicted the advancing team but guessed the match would go to penalties, also missing the process.

For England vs. Argentina, the 6 AIs were split. Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen supported England, while ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favored Argentina. Argentina eventually completed a 2-1 comeback. The 3 models supporting Argentina correctly predicted the advancing team, but only Gemini also predicted the exact score.

After the two semi-finals, Gemini became the only model to correctly predict both finalists, delivering the most accurate predictions of this round. However, for the final championship match, the 6 AIs are once again on the same side.

Consensus Reached for the Final; All 6 AIs Favor Spain

Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that for the "World Cup Final: Argentina vs. Spain" event on predict.fun, the probability of Argentina winning is 27%; draw is 32%; Spain winning is 43%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Spain's championship probability is 59%, while Argentina's is 41%.

The odds given by the prediction market are not far apart, but the stance of the 6 AIs is highly consistent. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen all favor Spain to win the title.

Why do the AIs Unanimously Predict Spain Will Win?

The reasons the AIs favor Spain are highly consistent: Defense, midfield control, and fitness reserves.

Spain's most compelling advantage is their almost impenetrable defense this World Cup. Conceding only one goal in the first seven matches, they then neutralized Portugal, Belgium, and France in the knockout stage. Although Argentina possesses stronger attacking firepower, they will find it difficult to exploit the open spaces for counter-attacks they enjoyed earlier against Spain's compact formation.

Midfield control will determine the pace of the game. Rodri orchestrates attacks, Olmo constantly moves into half-space channels in the final third, and Yamal can consistently stretch Argentina's defense on the flanks. Argentina excels at compressing the center and launching quick attacks through Messi, Alvarez, and Lautaro, but Spain can reduce the number of transitions by maintaining long possessions, preventing Argentina from settling into their most comfortable rhythm.

Fitness reserves are another variable commonly mentioned by the AIs. Spain finished their semi-final a day earlier than Argentina and had a relatively easier path to the final. Argentina, on the other hand, played 120 minutes against Switzerland and battled England into stoppage time. If the match goes into extra time, Spain's younger squad and deeper rotation could become the decisive advantage for the title.

5 AIs Do Not Expect Spain to Win Within 90 Minutes

Although they unanimously predict the champion, the six models have different views on how Spain will win the match.

Gemini, which performed best in the semi-finals, predicts a 1-1 draw in regular time, with the stalemate continuing in extra time, eventually decided by a penalty shootout, with Spain emerging victorious.

ChatGPT, Grok, and Qwen give similar predictions, all leaning towards a 1-1 draw in regular time. Argentina will have the ability to equalize through Messi's organization and forward efficiency, but as extra time progresses, Spain's superior fitness and squad depth will gradually show, leading to a winning goal in the 30 minutes of extra time.

Claude did not predict a specific score but believes the match will be a low-scoring affair (1-1, 1-0, or 0-0). It emphasizes the cautious nature of the final, with both teams likely maintaining balance for long periods until a set-piece, counter-attack, or individual brilliance breaks the deadlock.

DeepSeek is the only one leaning more towards Spain settling the match within 90 minutes. It favors Spain to continue their defensive performance from previous games, neutralize Argentina's attack, and win directly 2-0 or 2-1.

Before the semi-finals, 5 AIs unanimously bet on France advancing, only for Spain to win 2-0, resulting in a collective miss for the AIs. This time, will Spain live up to their overall superiority, or will Argentina once again drag the match into their familiar desperate situation and find a way to turn the tables?