BIT 投研：なぜ株価は最高値を更新し、金やビットコインは下落しているのか？
- 核心見解：2025年以降、市場はFRBの利上げ、地政学的紛争、AI投資ブームという三重のマクロ触媒要因によって交互に主導されてきた。その結果、S&P500、金、ビットコインの動きは著しく二極化しており、現在のビットコインはサイクルの底値に近づいている。9月以降はマクロ環境の好転が関連資産の上昇を再び促すと予想される。
- 重要要素：
- 資産の二極化が顕著：S&P500は9%上昇、金は6%下落、ビットコインは31%下落。伝統的に連動してきた3つの資産の動きが乖離している。
- FRBの金融政策による抑制：利下げ期待は完全に後退し、6月のFOMCでのタカ派的な姿勢が、流動性に敏感な金とビットコインに圧力をかけている。
- 地政学的紛争の衝撃：米国とイスラエルによるイラン攻撃で原油価格が上昇し、ビットコインは6万ドルまで下落。伝統的な安全資産としてのヘッジパターンを打ち破った。
- AIストーリーが主軸に：Anthropicの年間収益が300億ドルを超え、NVIDIAがMarvellに投資したことで、ナスダック指数が急上昇。
- 取引勢いの減速：6月以降、企業はAIコストを注視し、中国のオープンソースモデルが市場に参入。ビットコインは5月のCPI予想上振れにより6.3万ドルまで再び下落した。
The current market is in a repricing phase driven by multiple macro-catalytic factors. So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen 9%, gold has fallen 6%, and Bitcoin has fallen 31%, showing a clear divergence among three asset classes that traditionally exhibited some correlation. Factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and AI infrastructure investment have successively become the dominant narratives in the market, continuously altering the pricing logic of risk assets.
From the current perspective, asset performance is no longer determined by a single factor but is constantly being repriced around new catalysts at different stages. This has progressed from the Fed's hawkish stance, to the escalation of the Iran conflict, and then to the AI infrastructure investment boom.
The Fed and War Dominate the Market: Liquidity Expectations Suppress Risk Assets
Since the beginning of the year, the biggest change in the market has come from the reversal of Fed policy expectations. After Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, the market began to reprice a more hawkish monetary policy, completely reversing the expectation of three rate cuts for the year. Subsequently, the June FOMC meeting further confirmed the hawkish stance, continuing to put pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, leading to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and a stock market correction. Gold also fell, as the market believed central banks in the Middle East might prioritize funds for reconstruction financing rather than continuing to increase gold holdings. Bitcoin also dropped to around $60,000 under massive liquidation pressure, breaking its previous performance pattern during geopolitical conflicts.
AI Narrative Takes Over the Market: From Infrastructure Hype to Slowing Trading Momentum
As the conflict de-escalated, market focus quickly shifted to AI infrastructure construction. NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, and Anthropic's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI's previously disclosed $20 billion ARR. This pushed the relevant Nasdaq index from 23,200 points to 30,500 points, making AI the new market theme.
However, entering June, the momentum of AI trading began to wane. The trend of "tokenmaxxing" gradually subsided, with companies becoming more focused on token usage costs. Open-source models from China accelerated their entry into the market. OpenAI postponed its IPO to 2027, and Meta is planning to sell its surplus AI computing power. The market has started to reassess AI investment returns. Simultaneously, the US May CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, exceeding market expectations, leading to significant net selling of Bitcoin ETFs, which reduced their holdings by $9 billion worth of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price fell back from $82,000 to around $63,000, once again demonstrating its high sensitivity to inflation and Fed policy expectations.
Overall, since the beginning of the year, the market has experienced shifts between three core catalysts: Fed policy, geopolitics, and the AI narrative, which have also driven a clear divergence between stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Looking ahead, we believe that the Fed's hawkish stance is expected to gradually reverse after the summer. Gold has already entered a technically oversold zone, and Bitcoin is approaching its cyclical bottom target range of $50,000 to $55,000. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, AI usage demand recovering, and inflation expectations cooling, gold, Bitcoin, and AI-related trades are all expected to regain upward momentum.
Parts of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
