每周編集選抜 Weekly Editor's Picks（0613-0619）

The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. This "Weekly Editor's Pick" column retrieves valuable content from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macro Situation

After the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Which Trades Is the Market Betting On?

Military conflict has largely transitioned into the realm of negotiation. The market is shifting from a "war shock" to "supply recovery."

Following the strait's reopening, the market is shorting crude oil risk premiums, going long on airlines, cruise lines, and tourism chains, betting on Asian energy-importing countries, buying bond duration, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being repriced.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Ray Dalio: As AI Giants Dominate US Stocks, I Choose Not to Bet on Direction, Only Do One Thing

Technological progress itself does not automatically make related stocks equally attractive. Major historical tech cycles often experience phases of excitement, crowding, volatility, and washout.

When a small number of tech companies account for an increasingly high weight in indices, investors need to be wary of unconsciously holding highly correlated, concentrated risk exposure. Instead of continuing to chase a few leaders, a truly more robust approach is to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust volatility levels according to one's own risk tolerance.

Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction for the Four-Year Cycle of the Crypto Industry

While the business logic of private perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and asset tokenization is sound and market demand is well-validated, external policy forces outside the industry severely constrain their development speed.

By 2029, what will remain in the public's view is the core product the crypto industry has been truly building through successive speculative cycles: the asset trading market.

Data Deciphers the BTC Cycle: Three Bottom Signals Flash Together; Could Q4 Be the Key Turning Point?

When BTC is above $120,000, everyone is willing to believe it can go higher; but when it drops back to around $60,000, and on-chain valuations, cycle positioning, long-term holder ratios, and macro variables all point to a bottoming zone, the market is at its most lacking in confidence.

The current area is closer to a phased accumulation window requiring patience, discipline, and conviction.

Written After the SpaceX Debut: With a $2.1 Trillion Market Cap, Is It Still Worth Chasing?

SpaceX jumped $150 on its opening day, closing with a market cap of $2.1 trillion. SpaceX's current revenue simply cannot support its massive valuation.

Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable business. Space launches are SpaceX's flagship service.

Besides the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the disproportionately large retail IPO allocation might be another reason suppressing SPCX's stock price. Musk released 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors. The larger the retail shareholding percentage, the greater the inherent volatility. Retail investors can buy indiscriminately due to FOMO and also sell emotionally without thought at the slightest fluctuation. Therefore, retail investors primarily affect volatility, not the final price appreciation.

For investors watching SpaceX, the following two time points are particularly important:

1. Approximately 15 trading days after the IPO (expected around July 6 - July 7), there is a high probability SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq index, at which point top-tier funds will buy the stock;
2. SpaceX's Q2 earnings report (mid-to-late August).

The Higher It Rises, the More Dangerous It Gets? The Systemic Risk Behind SpaceX's Soaring Valuation

A gamma squeeze is a feedback loop where options market makers are forced to buy the underlying stock to hedge, further pushing up the price. If SpaceX follows this path and is further propelled by its own narrative strength, limited free float, and Elon Musk's personal influence, it could evolve from a high-valuation stock into a systemic variable for the entire market.

The more dangerous part lies in indexation and passive investing. When a company's market cap is large enough, it gets included in major indices and is passively held by ETFs, pension funds, retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, the bubble is no longer just the adventure of a few traders but enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it rises, the harder it is for the market to bypass it; and the harder it is to bypass it, the more likely capital flows towards it.

The article discusses a structural paradox in modern capital markets: when market mechanisms themselves can amplify narrative, leverage, and liquidity enough to overwhelm fundamentals, can so-called "price discovery" still hold?

For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Buy HOOD

Amid multiple positive factors, HOOD has risen recently.

For a long time, cryptocurrency-related revenue has been a significant part of Robinhood's total income, and HOOD's stock price has shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. Recently, however, there are signs that Robinhood is breaking free from its dependence on crypto revenue and positively decoupling from this correlation. Its stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO, and newly added underwriting business are still expected to support its earnings growth.

If the crypto market returns to a bull run in the future, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue will likely explode simultaneously, and HOOD will still enjoy the dividends of industry growth.

Missing the Crypto-Stock Wave, Korean Crypto Exchanges Forced to Trade 'Meme Coins'

Against the backdrop of a weakening crypto market and Korean crypto investors shifting to stock trading, Korean exchanges saw a collective decline in Q1 2026 performance, urgently needing measures to reverse the slump. However, unlike other overseas exchanges that can transform into "everything exchanges" listing tokenized stocks to meet crypto trader demands, South Korea classifies tokenized stocks as securities, thus banning crypto exchanges from such trading. It also prohibits Korean crypto exchanges from trading crypto futures, derivatives, or spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Korea's regulatory measures aimed at protecting investors have now pushed exchanges towards the most speculative corners of the market. With revenue sources and new product lines like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets all banned, exchanges, in order to boost platform trading volume, tend to choose to list more attention-grabbing and speculative "meme coins."

Web3 & AI

AI Version of the Subprime Crisis? $1.8 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Exposure is the Time Bomb of This Rally

Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in non-cancelable leases, and tens of billions in supplier financing arrangements together constitute approximately $1.8 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposure. These liabilities reside outside the balance sheet but genuinely lock in future cash outflows. The market has not yet fully priced in these risks.

Morgan Stanley warns that the leverage ratio of hyperscale cloud companies has surged from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters. Capital expenditure growth consistently outpaces revenue and free cash flow growth, while the real impact of depreciation pressure has yet to arrive.

Meanwhile, private credit institutions like Apollo and Blackstone are using SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) to transfer leverage to the supply chain level, creating a highly circular and opaque financing structure. If the commercialization of AI falls short of expectations, or if enterprise customers massively switch to cheaper alternatives, the fragility of the entire financing chain will be exposed.

The World Cup Has Only Been On for a Few Days, and Some AI Prediction Models Are Deified, Others Have Failed

Large models like Qianwen, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset possibilities, red card risks, key player performances, and match trend analysis.

For prediction market participants, AI pre-match analysis is becoming another layer of reference alongside odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.

Who Takes a Cut of Your AI Monthly Fee? A Diagram Dissecting the $20 Computing Supply Chain

A breakdown of the $20 Claude subscription cost, allocating the AI monthly fee to the model company, cloud computing, GPU, electricity, and supply chain.

AI subscriptions have ongoing inference costs; one cannot directly apply the high-margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.

Related assets: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and the power supply chain.

Prediction Markets

The First Concept Stock in Prediction Markets Has Appeared!

Kalshi had announced a partnership with US online brokerage Robinhood, where the latter would use the former's platform to offer prediction market trading services to its users, allowing bets on political, economic, and sports events. Recently, however, this relationship has seen some subtle changes. Robinhood has gradually realized that what is truly scarce might not be the market itself, but the user gateway it firmly controls. Robinhood holds a crucial resource: distribution capability.

After about six months of accelerated development, the Rothera product gradually took shape, and Robinhood finally made the almost inevitable move – gradually shifting orders that once went to Kalshi into its own controlled system. Robinhood deliberately chose an excellent launch battlefield for Rothera: the World Cup.

If the theme of the prediction market industry over the past few years was the market share battle between Polymarket and Kalshi, then the theme for the next few years might become a channel war.

Also recommended: "World Cup Kicks Off: Reviewing the 'Big Wins' and 'Heavy Losses' in Prediction Markets".

CeFi & DeFi

IOSG: On the Day of SpaceX's Listing, the First Live Test of Three Perpetual Contract Mechanisms

Without a public spot price, how does the market price something? This is the core challenge that the entire Pre-IPO perpetual category aims to solve.

In the SpaceX case, trade.xyz captured the on-chain market (approximately 96.5% of volume), not because its oracle was smarter, but due to near-zero funding rates making the position nearly costless to hold, its launch coinciding with an IPO catalyst, and per-share pricing enabling cross-exchange arbitrage.

However, while Pre-IPO perpetuals are adept at handling prices, their handling of events remains primitive. Corporate actions, especially stock splits after conversion, have no pipeline on-chain: trade.xyz hasn't disclosed any rebase mechanism, while Ventuals outsourced this to a single data provider, which has already caused an incident (an outdated split data caused a 45% flash crash in its market). The bottleneck isn't price discovery but that mundane "corporate action" processing layer. Traditional markets standardized it over a century; on-chain, no one has rebuilt it yet. Whoever can deliver it credibly fills the final gap between these markets and the ones they aim to replace.

STRC Significantly De-pegs: What Risk is the Market Pricing?

STRC fell to around $89, implying a simple current yield of approximately 12.9% based on the $11.5 annualized dividend.

Market divergence isn't about whether Strategy will immediately fail to pay dividends, but how to discount BTC reserves, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competition from similar products.

Related assets: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.

STRC De-pegs 11%: Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Still Turn?

The market's pricing of STRC not only reflects investor sentiment towards a preferred stock but also market confidence in Strategy's entire capital operation model.

Within Strategy's balance sheet expansion loop, STRC is not just an ordinary financing tool; it is the most powerful engine of Strategy's current capital flywheel. Through the loop of "issuing STRC -> raising fiat -> buying BTC -> increasing company book value -> boosting STRC trust," Strategy successfully built a seemingly infinite capital flywheel. However, the key premise for this flywheel to run smoothly is that STRC must trade near its $100 par value.

The failure of the dividend's corrective effect implies that the risk the market is pricing now extends beyond STRC's yield itself. First are superficial technical factors. Some market participants believe the recent decline is largely due to forced liquidations and concentrated deleveraging by arbitrageurs. The deeper concern lies with Strategy's liquidity reserve position.

Annualized 15%-25%: Is BlackRock's Bitcoin Income ETF an Opportunity or a Trap?

BITA leverages BlackRock's spot bitcoin fund IBIT, selling covered call options to generate steady option premium income for investors, at the cost of sacrificing some upside potential of bitcoin. This income-focused bitcoin fund is designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, solving the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets.

Fund flows will provide the final answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb bitcoin while bitcoin holds the $65,000 range, it indicates sustainable real institutional buying. Conversely, if the income ETF only cannibalizes existing spot fund assets, the bearish "income trap" thesis will be validated.

Ethereum & Scaling

Sharplink CEO: One Million Ethereum Developers, Who Can Match?

Ethereum's core advantage isn't speed, but the aggregation of the largest and deepest talent pool; its true moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built on composability, standard-setting, and credible neutrality; these builders are focusing on cutting-edge issues like scalability and quantum resistance, continuously cementing Ethereum's position as the default operating system for financial internet.

Weekly Hot Topic Catch-up

Policy & Macro Markets

Iranian media published detailed terms of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds;

The US and Iran announced an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts;

The US-Iran agreement was finalized, causing crypto and gold to surge while oil prices plummeted;

The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected but adopted a hawkish stance, significantly altering its policy statement;