从喊单150美元到清仓HYPE仅用三天，Arthur Hayes的公信力还剩多少？
- 核心观点：BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 近期多次公开喊单后快速清仓加密资产（如 HYPE、WLD），实现精准逃顶，其操作模式损害市场公信力，投资者应关注其链上行为而非言论。
- 关键要素：
- Arthur Hayes 在公开喊单 HYPE 至 150 美元并立下对赌协议仅 3 天后便清仓，导致 HYPE 当天跌幅超 13.6%，成功于 75.5 美元高点逃顶。
- 喊单 WLD 至 10 美元后仅 3 天即清仓，致 WLD 当天跌超 20%，解释为 SpaceX 盘前价格“反常”，操作类似“拉高出货”。
- 其抛售理由包括能源成本上升、AI 股 IPO 及政策转向可能刺破 AI 泡沫，但实际行为与言论矛盾，常“前脚看多、后脚清仓”。
- 历史案例显示，Arthur Hayes 常在公开唱多后快速清仓，如 HYPE 在 2025 年 8 月吹捧后 1 个月清仓获利数百万美元，随后代币价格震荡下跌。
- 长期投资者总结其模式为“话不可信但操作需盯”，建仓需谨慎跟随，卖出需果断，但持续操弄将导致公信力反噬。
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes have left? Recently, the "father of crypto perpetual swaps" and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has faced public backlash, with on-chain detective ZachXBT also publicly questioning how much exit liquidity he has created using his followers.
Liquidating HYPE, NEAR, WLD
Starting last week, Arthur Hayes performed several unannounced sell-offs at market peaks.
Arthur Hayes had repeatedly stated publicly that HYPE would rise to $150 in this cycle. On June 1, he was still passionately arguing with former Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani over criticism of Hyperliquid, even making a $100,000 bet against him. However, three days later, Hayes announced he had completely liquidated his positions in HYPE and NEAR, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% that day. His sell-off indeed successfully topped the market – HYPE hit a new high of $75.5 on June 4 before falling steadily, currently hovering around $62-$64.
Besides selling HYPE and NEAR, Hayes also liquidated ZEC and WLD. While liquidating ZEC due to the Orchard Pool attack might be understandable, his WLD sell-off resembled a classic "KOL pump and dump" operation: early accumulation, public promotion, and finally selling at a high.
From publicly touting WLD to completely liquidating it, Arthur Hayes only "faked it" for three days. On June 3, the day before selling HYPE, Hayes publicly set a $10 target for WLD, claiming it would become an alternative investment for those unable to directly participate in SpaceX equity trades. After the news spread, WLD surged over 35% that day. But by June 6, Hayes changed his tune, stating he had sold all his WLD because the pre-market price trend for SpaceX was "abnormal." This flimsy explanation caused WLD to drop over 20% that day.
What sets Arthur Hayes apart from "low-tier KOLs" is his ability to write lengthy analyses, often providing reasonable explanations for his moves from a macroeconomic and top-down perspective.
On June 9, Arthur Hayes published a long article, "Reality Test" (about a 20-minute read), explaining his recent actions. He argued that three factors would burst the AI bubble: rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, IPOs of the three major AI stocks (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump's potential shift against AI for the midterm elections.
Consequently, his family office, Maelstrom, holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers and has sold AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, retaining only BTC and ETH.
Don't Listen to Arthur Hayes, But Watch His Moves
Arthur Hayes's articles are adept at using extensive economic data and charts to argue points, sometimes incorporating political and historical perspectives to be quite persuasive. But when you take his words at face value and invest real money following his lead, he might announce a complete position liquidation and turn bearish the very next day, as if he'd forgotten everything he said, leaving your portfolio simultaneously crushed.
This pattern is common. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly performed the "bullish one moment, liquidated the next" routine. The classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, Hayes promoted HYPE during a speech at WebX in Japan, claiming the token had 126x upside potential (Odaily note: the price was $45.9 that day). Just one month later, he announced he had sold all his HYPE, pocketing millions in profit, citing the risk of token unlocks.
This time, Hayes's sell-off happened precisely at the peak of HYPE's previous cycle, after which HYPE entered a volatile downtrend. It wasn't until mid-January 2026 that Hayes began buying HYPE heavily again. Looking at the chart, his purchase point coincided perfectly with the bottom of the recent market cycle.
Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA, where he publicly talked them up, then sold without warning, perfectly timing the top. (Related reading: You Ran Away Again! A Look Back at Arthur Hayes's Top-Selling Records)
Long-time followers of Arthur Hayes have summed up a methodology: Don't listen to what Arthur Hayes says, but definitely watch what he does. Enter positions cautiously when he buys, and sell decisively when he exits.
However, if Arthur Hayes continues this charade, especially in cases like manipulating WLD's price, his market credibility will be threatened, no matter how well he masks his excuses. It's like a crypto version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" – in the end, Arthur Hayes is sure to face a backlash.
In his latest article, he got one thing right: "I am still a full-blooded gambler," and gamblers usually don't end well.
