BIT Research: Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over—Will $200K Be the Peak of This Bull Cycle?

Bitcoin is re-entering a bull market cycle. Previously, Bitcoin had reached the downside target zone of this bear market correction and confirmed the cycle bottom after holding above $62,900. The price then crossed above the 21-week moving average at $69,272, further confirming the end of the bear market; Bitcoin has now risen to around $84,000–$86,000, not only breaking above the May 2026 high but also reclaiming the 1-year moving average, with monthly cycle indicators further confirming that the bear market has ended.

Meanwhile, U.S. federal debt has reached approximately $40.1 trillion. By overlaying Bitcoin's price against U.S. federal debt, Bitcoin's implied fair value is currently around $105,000. As debt levels continue to expand, this trend will continue to provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin. However, the recent strengthening of the dollar, combined with Bitcoin's short-term overbought condition, means the price may still see periodic consolidation.

Bear Market Confirmed Over: Bitcoin Reclaims Market Average Cost

This rally was initially driven by short covering, and after Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, the first wave of FOMO sentiment began to emerge. The price subsequently broke through the March 2024 high of $73,084, the resistance level formed by the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the May 2026 high, while also reclaiming the 1-year moving average. Bitcoin has now recovered the major resistance zone dating back to March 2024, while trading above the 1-year moving average, increasing the probability of a valid breakout.

More importantly, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average holding cost of all holders — the True Market Mean — currently at approximately $76,897. With the price trading in the $84,000–$86,000 range, the entire market has returned to profitability. Historical experience shows that traders in unrealized loss tend to continuously close positions and add selling pressure; now that the entire market is back above average cost, FOMO is returning, and traders' willingness to increase leverage is rising accordingly.

At the same time, after U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion, Bitcoin also broke above the downtrend line from its October 2025 high. Based on the current U.S. federal debt of approximately $40.1 trillion, Bitcoin's implied fair value is around $105,000. Although the price may repeatedly experience overvaluation and undervaluation around this trend center, the continued expansion of debt will still provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin.

This Cycle's Peak May Point to $185,000–$215,000

From the perspective of market average holding cost, historical experience shows that a Bitcoin bull market typically does not peak until the price reaches a premium of at least 85% relative to the True Market Mean. Based on the current True Market Mean of $76,897, the corresponding price is approximately $142,260. However, this level is not the final peak, but rather the minimum trigger threshold for the bull market to begin its final ascent. As Bitcoin rises and coin turnover increases, new buyers enter at higher prices, and the market average holding cost will shift upward accordingly, meaning this bull market's peak should be higher than $142,260.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin first reached an 85% premium at around $73,000 in March 2024, and ultimately rose to $126,000, corresponding to a multiple of approximately 1.7x. However, the premium multiple is compressing cycle by cycle. If this cycle it further declines to 1.3–1.5x, and using approximately $142,000 as the base, the corresponding potential top range would be approximately $185,000–$215,000.

However, this does not mean Bitcoin will quickly rise to near $200,000 in the short term. In the previous cycle, it took approximately 19 months from the first appearance of the 85% premium signal to the final peak, as the True Market Mean needs time to catch up with the price. Therefore, a top near $200,000 is more likely to be a 2028–2029 event rather than something imminent.

Overall, Bitcoin has reclaimed both the 21-week and 1-year moving averages, printed a higher high, and pulled the entire market back above average cost, with monthly cycle indicators also confirming that the bear market has ended. In the short term, dollar strength and overbought conditions may bring periodic consolidation; from a longer-term perspective, the U.S. debt model gives a fair value of $105,000, the True Market Mean framework points to a cycle minimum target of $142,260, and the ultimate peak may fall in the $185,000–$215,000 range.

However, this top is still some distance away in both time and space. The previous cycle took approximately 19 months from the appearance of the 85% premium signal to the final peak, so this cycle's peak near $200,000 is more likely to occur in 2028–2029, rather than being a target reachable in the short term.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets carry risk, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risk and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.