HYPE on the Eve of an Explosion: AQAv2 Begins Revenue Accrual This Month, HIP-4 Poised for Launch
- Core View: After two months of pullback, HYPE is expected to enter an upward trend driven by technical rebounds and fundamental catalysts (such as AQAv2 revenue sharing and HIP-4 permissionless deployment).
- Key Factors:
- Technical analysis shows HYPE is currently trading in the $76-77 rebound range. If it breaks through the $58-58.5 resistance zone, it may form a central departure segment, and the strength of the rebound should be observed.
- Traditional financial institutions are increasing their HYPE exposure through PURR, a treasury asset of HYPE, indicating that Hyperliquid is gaining traction in traditional finance and providing structural off-market buying support.
- The AQAv2 revenue-sharing mechanism will launch on August 26, expected to contribute approximately $200 million annually to buy back HYPE, enhancing the token's value-capture capability.
- The total stablecoin supply on Hyperliquid has reached $5.74 billion. Based on a 3.82% Treasury yield, annual reserve revenue stands at approximately $210 million, with 90% earmarked for buybacks.
- Since May, Hyperliquid's stablecoin reserve revenue simulations have shown growing income, with July revenue up 41.4%, and stablecoin yields exceeding fee income on low-trading-volume days.
- The Assistance Fund has cumulatively repurchased approximately $1.03 billion worth of HYPE, accounting for 4.65% of the total supply and 15.54% of the circulating supply.
- HIP-4 permissionless deployment has gone live on the testnet, with over 180 outcome contracts deployed, of which sports prediction contracts account for 50%, positioning it to challenge Polymarket and Kalshi.
Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
Since hitting an all-time high in mid-June, HYPE has entered a two-month correction cycle. Now, both from a technical and fundamental perspective, HYPE is highly likely to enter a rebound phase.
From a technical standpoint, Odaily's特邀 analyst Cody stated in this week's analysis that the current HYPE market is running a rebound segment toward $76-77. If the price can effectively break through and hold the $58-$58.5 resistance zone before continuing to rebound, it would form the exit segment of the中枢. At that point, the rebound momentum of the entry segment ($72-73) and exit segment ($76-77) can be observed separately. (Related reading: BTC consolidates in a range, HYPE daily rebound confirmed | Special Analysis)
From a fundamental perspective, traditional financial institutions and asset managers have recently disclosed that they have increased their HYPE exposure through PURR, the HYPE treasury asset, indicating that Hyperliquid has gained increasing recognition and position allocation from the traditional finance sector. This represents one of the off-exchange structural buying forces that can underpin the HYPE price. (Related reading: From hedge funds to family offices, who is quietly increasing HYPE exposure through PURR?)
Additionally, Hyperliquid's AQAv2 (Aligned Quote Asset v2) revenue-sharing mechanism is set to launch on August 26. Analysts estimate this revenue-sharing will contribute approximately $200 million annually to buy back HYPE, strengthening HYPE's value capture capability within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Hyperliquid's results market HIP-4 permissionless deployment is also about to hit mainnet...
AQAv2 Could Generate Approximately $200 Million in Annual HYPE Buyback Capital
AQAv2 (Aligned Quote Asset v2) was announced by Hyperliquid in May this year, allowing stablecoins not exclusively issued by Hyperliquid, including USDC, to qualify for "Aligned" status. AQAv2 permits designated "technical deployers" and "treasury deployers," both of which must stake 500,000 HYPE, valued at approximately $30 million. Hyperliquid has partnered with Coinbase and Circle, with Coinbase designated as the capital deployer and Circle handling technical deployment.
The most closely watched aspect of AQAv2 by investors is the revenue-sharing mechanism, which requires stablecoin deployers to allocate 90% of stablecoin reserve yields to the Hyperliquid protocol, with 100% of these proceeds used to buy back and burn HYPE tokens. Stablecoin reserve revenue shares are settled on a 30-day cycle, with proceeds automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends.
According to official rules, formal revenue accrual begins on August 26, with the first revenue payment scheduled for October 3. Although it will take approximately 1.5 months for AQAv2 revenue shares to actually flow into the Assistance Fund for HYPE buybacks and burns, market sentiment suggests that capital is highly likely to push up the HYPE price in advance of the buyback catalyst materializing.
According to Hyperliquid data, as of press time, the total stablecoin supply on Hyperliquid stands at $5.74 billion, with USDC commanding a 98% share at $5.6 billion. Even calculated at the one-year U.S. Treasury yield (3.82%), the annual reserve yield from stablecoins on Hyperliquid would reach $210 million, with 90% of these future proceeds allocated to HYPE buybacks.
Overview of stablecoin scale on Hyperliquid
Blockworks analysts simulated Hyperliquid's accrued revenue since the AQAv2 announcement on May 14. Data shows that Hyperliquid revenue grew 41.4% in July. Even on the lowest revenue day (July 25), stablecoin reserve yield exceeded the total of all fee revenue combined ($589,000 vs. $537,000).
Simulation of Hyperliquid stablecoin reserve yield from May 14 to August 14
According to Hyperliquid data, as of press time, the Assistance Fund has repurchased approximately $1.03 billion worth of HYPE in total, with repurchased tokens accounting for 4.65% of the total supply and 15.54% of the circulating supply.
The most significant implication of the AQAv2 revenue-sharing mechanism is that it further insulates Hyperliquid's revenue from cyclical and market downturns. While trading fee revenue may decline during unfavorable market conditions, stablecoin reserve yield is far more predictable, making Hyperliquid's revenue more stable. Given that Hyperliquid allocates all stablecoin reserve yield to HYPE buybacks, HYPE also gains greater and more stable token value capture capability.
HIP-4 Gears Up for Launch
Meanwhile, from a fundamental perspective, HIP-4 is also building momentum.
In mid-July, Hyperliquid announced that the results market HIP-4 would support permissionless deployment. Odaily previously analyzed that opening HIP-4 to permissionless deployment could become a turning point for Hyperliquid in the prediction market space, potentially nurturing ecosystem partners capable of surpassing Polymarket and Kalshi. (Related reading: HIP-4 opens permissionless deployment — can Hyperliquid kill Polymarket?)
On July 31, HIP-4 permissionless deployment went live on testnet. Unlike the sluggish mainnet HIP-4 markets, over 180 outcome contracts have been deployed on the Hyperliquid testnet as of press time, with over 95 sports-related match prediction contracts, accounting for 50% of the total.
HIP-4 outcome markets on Hyperliquid testnet
Furthermore, Hyperliquid has designed a new UI for the outcomes market, no longer placing it solely within the "Trade" page. Instead, a more prominent standalone "Outcomes" page has been created, displaying outcome contracts in card format — better suited to the trading habits of prediction market users.
Currently, the highest-volume category across most prediction markets is sports match outcome prediction. Based on testnet deployment numbers, third parties also prefer deploying sports match prediction outcome contracts. Whether the permissionless deployment mechanism can turn the tide for Hyperliquid's outcomes market remains to be seen until it goes live on mainnet and goes head-to-head with prediction market projects like Polymarket and Kalshi.
