Semi-final AI Prediction Battle: Is France a Sure Bet? England vs. Argentina Hangs in the Balance

Original by Odaily ( @OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

In the previous article predicting the World Cup quarterfinalists, all six AIs unanimously favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After four matches concluded, the AIs didn't get a single semifinal ticket wrong.

France had the easiest path to the semifinals. Although Mbappé missed a penalty, he later contributed a goal and an assist, helping France eliminate Morocco 2-0. Spain pulled off another late victory, with Merino scoring in the 88th minute to beat Belgium 2-1. The other two matches went to extra time: Bellingham scored a brace to help England come from behind and beat Norway 2-1; Argentina, facing a Swiss team reduced to ten men, only managed to score two goals late in extra time to secure a hard-fought 3-1 win.

Similarly, to participate more effectively in the prediction markets for the semifinals, I again consulted the six AI models—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok—asking them to predict the regular time result (win/draw/loss), the exact score, and whether the match would go to extra time or a penalty shootout.

However, by the semifinals, the predictions from the six AIs showed clear divergence. For France vs. Spain, five AIs favored France to advance, all predicting a 2-1 scoreline. The England vs. Argentina match saw the biggest split, with three AIs backing England and the other three favoring Argentina. There was also no consensus on whether the match would go to extra time or even penalties.

Five AIs Unanimously Predict France 2-1 Spain, Only Gemini Backs Spain to Advance

The first semifinal of this World Cup is France vs. Spain, scheduled for July 15th at 3:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, within regular time, France has a 42% win probability; a draw is 30%; Spain has a 30% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, France has a 60% chance of advancing, while Spain has a 40% chance.

These are the two most defensively solid teams in this World Cup. France hasn't conceded a goal since the knockout stages began, and Spain has only been breached once in the entire tournament. However, their paths to victory are completely different. Spain controls the tempo through possession and high pressing, while France excels at quick transitions, using the speed and individual brilliance of their forward players to create direct threats.

Among the six AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen all chose France to advance. Furthermore, all five models predicted the exact score as France 2-1 Spain. Although Spain might have more possession, their full-backs pushing high could leave dangerous space behind them. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise, France doesn't need prolonged sieges; just a few transition opportunities could directly change the game.

ChatGPT's assessment of the match flow was more detailed, suggesting France would score first on the counter, Spain would equalize in the second half, then continue pressing forward, only for France to exploit the space behind once more for a late winner. Claude, while acknowledging the possibility of the match going to extra time, ultimately joined Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen in selecting France to win 2-1 in regular time.

The only one choosing Spain is Gemini, predicting a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes, with Spain eventually advancing via a penalty shootout. Gemini's key reasoning isn't about Spain dominating France offensively, but rather that Spain can reduce the number of transition moments through sustained possession, minimizing the threat of France's most potent weapon—the counterattack.

As long as Spain avoids conceding an early goal, the match could fall into their familiar rhythm. While France boasts explosive talents like Mbappé and Dembélé, they may struggle for open space against Spain's midfield control. Conversely, with France yet to concede in the knockout stages, Spain will also find it tough to score repeatedly in settled possession. Therefore, Gemini analyzes that the match could remain low-scoring for an extended period, with each team capitalizing on one chance before the deadlock persists all the way to penalties.

Thus, whether Gemini can be the sole AI predicting a Spanish advancement becomes another major storyline for this match. In contrast, the other semifinal is far more divisive—for England vs. Argentina, the six AIs couldn't even reach a consensus on the advancing team.

Split Predictions for England-Argentina, No Consensus on Extra Time or Penalties

The second World Cup semifinal is England vs. Argentina, scheduled for July 16th at 3:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, within regular time, England has a 37% win probability; a draw is 33%; Argentina has a 32% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, England has a 55% chance of advancing, while Argentina has a 45% chance.

Compared to France vs. Spain, this match is harder to call. Both teams played the full 120 minutes in their previous round. England came from behind to beat Norway in extra time, while Argentina only defeated Switzerland late in extra time. Physical exhaustion, key player form, and match rhythm could all influence the final outcome.

Regarding the predictions from the six AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.

Those supporting England value physicality, set pieces, and attacking power more. Both Grok and DeepSeek predict England wins 2-1 in regular time, while Qwen gives a more aggressive 2-0 prediction. England's current attack is also heavily focused on Kane and Bellingham. The duo has scored the vast majority of the team's goals, with Bellingham stepping up in two consecutive knockout rounds to solve problems. From these models' perspectives, England can use high pressing, crosses, and set pieces to apply constant pressure, aiming to finish the match within 90 minutes.

Supporters of Argentina place more faith in knockout stage experience. Gemini predicts Argentina advances 2-1 in regular time, believing Messi's playmaking and clutch ability remain decisive at this level; Claude's assessment is more conservative, suggesting a low-scoring stalemate is likely, with a 1-1 draw in regular time quite possible, and the probability of the match going to extra time being significantly higher than the first semifinal, ultimately leaning towards Argentina advancing; ChatGPT goes straight to predicting a penalty shootout, foreseeing a 1-1 draw in regular time, with both sides hesitant to over-commit in extra time, before Argentina eliminates England 4-3 on penalties thanks to Emiliano Martínez and their richer penalty shootout experience.

In the previous round, the AIs' predictions for the quarterfinalists were highly consistent, and they turned out to be entirely correct. Now in the semifinals, the predictions have become a situation of "one consensus match and one split match." Can France break through Spain's possession system? Will England and Argentina battle all the way to a penalty shootout? This time, whose prediction is more trustworthy?

Recommended Reading:

《A Few Days into the World Cup, Some AI Prediction Models Become Legends, Others Fall Flat》

《Predicting World Cup Knockouts: Why Are Different AIs' Skill Levels So Different?》

《World Cup Quarterfinals Loom: Who Are the AIs Voting to Advance?》