The World Cup is here, and the battle for entry into the prediction market has begun

In the early hours of June 12, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, officially kicked off.

As the world's most-watched sporting event, the World Cup is more than just a direct contest between players on the pitch. Who will lift the trophy? Which team will be the biggest dark horse? Who will win the Golden Boot? Starting months before the tournament, hundreds of millions of fans have been actively discussing and predicting various outcomes on social media.

Unlike previous editions, while fans can still debate online or participate in traditional betting (which is often subject to strict regional regulations), a new on-chain probability perception tool originating from the crypto world — Prediction Markets — is becoming the biggest off-field attraction of this World Cup.

The allure of prediction markets lies in converting collective wisdom into real-money odds. Over the past few years, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained mainstream attention for predicting global macro events, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market trends. Their high sensitivity in information feedback has led many mainstream media outlets to hail them as "more accurate barometers than traditional polls."

However, for a long time, prediction markets have felt like an exclusive domain for native crypto users. For an average fan attracted by the World Cup, participating often requires overcoming a steep learning curve — wallets, seed phrases, on-chain transactions, gas fees, smart contracts, approvals, trading... These concepts, second nature to seasoned crypto users, objectively create high entry barriers for a massive influx of new users, potentially deterring 90% of interested participants.

In other words, while prediction markets have proven their product and value, the last mile towards mass adoption has been bottlenecked by the cumbersome experience of the underlying infrastructure.

Analyzing the CEX Channel Advantage: The Case of Gate

Addressing this industry pain point, major centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Gate are attempting to break down the complex entry barriers for new users by integrating (or building) their own prediction market products and revamping the user experience.

Gate is a prime example. As the first CEX to directly integrate with Polymarket, Gate and Polymarket have established a classic partnership model — Polymarket acts as the underlying layer, providing event markets, matching, and settlement capabilities; Gate serves as the channel, offering an on-chain trading entry point and account system where users can execute all trades using their Gate accounts and USDT. As of June 16, 2026, Gate's prediction market product has accumulated a total trading volume exceeding $251 million, with a single-day peak of nearly $69 million, ranking first in notional trading volume among over 300 channels partnered with Polymarket.

For the average user, the most direct manifestation of this channel value is the lowered barrier to entry and the optimized interaction experience.

Within Gate's product ecosystem, users no longer need to worry about wallet creation, asset bridging, gas payments, or on-chain approvals. They simply log into their account, use USDT, and directly participate in prediction market trading. The overall process feels essentially no different from spot or futures trading. Simultaneously, for experienced users accustomed to on-chain operations, Gate also retains a Web3 wallet connection option, providing greater flexibility between convenience and native experience.

Specifically, in terms of trading experience, Gate offers two distinct interaction schemes: "Prediction Mode" and "Trading Mode."

• Prediction Mode is better suited for regular users. In this mode, users simply choose "Yes" or "No", input the amount, and confirm to complete the trade. The system displays the corresponding probability and potential profit, compressing the entire operation into a streamlined three-step process.
• Experienced, advanced users can opt for Trading Mode. This mode provides more professional market tools, including order books, candlestick charts, and depth data. Here, the prediction market transcends simple outcome betting, becoming a market for real-time pricing and trading based on evolving probabilities.

In terms of trading flexibility, Gate allows users to engage in "two-way trading" at any time, meaning participants can buy or sell their positions before the event's final settlement, responding to market expectation changes, without needing to hold until the result is announced. As match progress, macro events, or market sentiment shifts, the prices of corresponding contracts fluctuate, offering users more dynamic trading opportunities.

Regarding the scope of tradable events, Gate's prediction market now covers hot topics across sports, cryptocurrency, macroeconomics, traditional financial markets, and more. Whether it's the World Cup winner, Bitcoin's price trajectory, or the direction of global events, users can find corresponding prediction markets to participate in.

But doing just this is clearly insufficient for the massive adoption of prediction markets. From a product design perspective, Gate aims to transform the prediction market from a relatively niche on-chain tool into a comprehensive information discovery and trading system.

For most users, another practical challenge after the operational barriers are lowered is answering the core question: "What to buy?" Prediction markets are fundamentally a game of information and cognition. Compared to the act of trading itself, the ability to access timely information, understand shifts in market sentiment, and spot potential opportunities is often the key determinant of success.

Addressing this need, Gate has built a relatively complete information auxiliary system alongside its trading features.

• Smart Money Leaderboard: Quickly identify "smart money" and active traders in the market, viewing their historical P&L, holdings, and trading trajectories. For inexperienced users, this transparent mechanism for displaying on-chain behavior lowers the cost of information acquisition and provides additional reference points for market observation.
• Market Activity Monitoring: Users can track specific wallet addresses or accounts of interest. When a targeted account makes a new trade, the system automatically pushes an alert. For users wanting to follow whale movements or learn from experienced traders' strategies, this tool effectively enhances market observation efficiency.
• Live Zone & Real-time Feed: Aggregates updates on popular events, market dynamics, and real-time trading data, helping users quickly grasp the most discussed topics.
• AI Insights: Consolidates diverse viewpoints and the latest developments around hot market events, helping users quickly understand the underlying logic and improve trading decision efficiency, offering more reference perspectives for judgment.

From discovering hotspots and tracking market sentiment, to observing smart money movements, analyzing AI and capital flows, and finally executing trades, Gate is attempting to build more than just a simple Polymarket channel; it's constructing a complete participation link covering information acquisition, opinion formation, and trade execution.

The World Cup is Here: From Watching to Participating

If the value of prediction markets lies in converting collective judgment into market probabilities, then the World Cup is undoubtedly one of its most ideal applications.

Compared to macroeconomic events, football matches feature higher-frequency information changes, broader participant groups, and more intense emotional swings. From pre-match lineup releases and injury news, to every goal, yellow/red card, and tactical adjustment during the game, these elements can rapidly alter market expectations for the match outcome, directly reflected in the price changes of the corresponding prediction markets.

For this World Cup, a premier global sports IP, Gate recently launched a dedicated World Cup theme zone, aggregating the match schedule, standings, popular prediction markets, and event news in one place.

For fans, this means no more switching between different pages. They can quickly browse matches, get information, and place predictions, all within Gate. The zone also features a match calendar and reminder function, allowing users to add interesting games to their watchlist and receive notifications before they start, ensuring they don't miss key matches and related prediction opportunities. During live matches, the Live feed feature further strengthens the connection between the prediction market and the viewing experience. Match progress, trending topics, and market trading dynamics update simultaneously, letting users follow the scoreline and observe the market's real-time pricing of the game's flow.

Looking at the actual user experience, Gate has also deliberately simplified the entire World Cup participation process. Users enter the relevant match page, choose to support or oppose a specific outcome, input the amount, and confirm the transaction to place an order. As the match progresses, users can either hold their position until the final result or execute buy/sell orders based on market price changes.

From this perspective, prediction markets are reshaping the World Cup viewing experience. For participants, they are not just trading the match outcome itself; they are trading their judgment of the game's narrative and the market consensus as it continuously adjusts with new information.

Prediction Markets' Next Stop: From Crypto Circles to the Mass Market

Reflecting on the development over the past few years, prediction markets have arguably already completed the most difficult step: proving the product's effectiveness and market value.

From the US elections and macroeconomic events to global sporting spectacles like the World Cup, a growing number of cases demonstrate that when enough people put real money behind their opinions on a single event, markets can reflect shifts in collective expectations faster than traditional polls, expert predictions, or even some media reports.

However, there is clearly still a gap between prediction markets and true mass adoption.

For a long time, crypto-native infrastructure like wallets, gas, and on-chain interactions has formed the underlying framework for prediction markets but has also inadvertently limited their user base. For most ordinary people, they might be willing to express their judgment on a World Cup match, an interest rate decision, or a hot market topic, but are not necessarily willing to learn a complex set of on-chain operations to do so.

This suggests that the next phase of competition for prediction markets might not be about who can build a more effective product, but who can attract and onboard more users.

From this viewpoint, centralized exchanges, social platforms, and even more internet products have the potential to become crucial gateways for the future of prediction markets. The entity that can abstract away the complex underlying mechanics and reach ordinary users with lower learning costs and smoother product experiences will be best positioned to drive prediction markets from a niche crypto-native application into the mainstream market.

This is precisely the path Gate is attempting. By replacing wallet barriers with an account system, substituting complex on-chain interactions with familiar trading experiences, and building a comprehensive product suite around information discovery, opinion exchange, and trading decisions, the prediction market is gradually evolving from a specialized tool for a few on-chain players into a new type of market that more ordinary users can understand, participate in, and benefit from.

When prediction markets cease to be an on-chain experiment for the few and become an open market where anyone can express their views, discover consensus, and trade on their judgment, the real growth story may have just begun.

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from users in restricted regions. Please read the User Agreement for more information.