BIT Research: Two Major Headwinds Continue to Weigh on the Market — Why Is Bitcoin Still Near the Cycle Bottom?
- Core View: Despite the dual headwinds of the Fed's hawkish stance and the slowdown in legislative progress on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin has held within the $62,000–$66,000 range, demonstrating notable resilience. The market is now watching whether this cycle has already approached its bottom.
- Key Factors:
- Trading volume has fallen 80% from its peak, down roughly 60% from the Q4 2025 high, while total market capitalization has dropped about 50%, reflecting a lack of new dollar liquidity.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish tone, with the two-year Treasury yield rising about 35 basis points cumulatively. The committee vote stands at 9 in favor of holding rates steady versus 3 in favor of a hike.
- Progress on the CLARITY Act has slowed, with prediction markets placing only a 32% probability of it being signed into law by the end of 2026, as it faces obstacles including Senate scheduling, the summer recess, and disputes over provisions.
- Since November 2025, the market caps of USDT and USDC have shown no significant expansion, with stablecoin supply growth stalling — leaving crypto assets without the liquidity support needed for sustained upside.
- Bitcoin has only pulled back roughly 3% over the past week, outperforming altcoins. This suggests that investors needing to rebalance positions have largely completed the adjustment, making a deeper sell-off increasingly difficult.
- If Bitcoin can reclaim the $70,000 level and push multiple indicators back into positive territory, it could confirm that the cycle low is already in place.
当前市场正处于宏观政策与监管预期共同影响的调整阶段。美联储主席凯文·沃什延续偏鹰立场，市场对利率路径的预期持续调整；与此同时，《CLARITY 法案》立法进程放缓，也削弱了此前市场对于监管利好的预期。尽管两项利空因素持续发酵，比特币依然维持在 62,000 至 66,000 美元区间，展现出较强韧性。
从目前表现来看，加密货币市场成交量已从高点回落 80%，较 2025 年第四季度峰值收缩约 60%，总市值也已下跌约 50%。市场整体仍缺乏新增美元流动性，但在成交量持续低迷、监管预期降温的背景下，比特币并未出现更大幅度下跌，市场关注点正逐步从短期利空转向本轮周期是否已经接近底部。
美联储维持偏鹰，监管预期降温压制市场情绪
自 2026 年 1 月下旬凯文·沃什的提名消息首次传出以来，美联储政策立场较市场此前预期更为鹰派，两年期美债收益率同期累计上行约 35 个基点。虽然沃什多次强调通胀仍高于目标，但市场更关注政策沟通带来的不确定性。目前委员会投票结果已出现 9 票支持维持利率、3 票支持加息的格局，进一步收紧政策的讨论有所升温。
与此同时，《CLARITY 法案》推进节奏也持续放缓。截至 7 月 17 日，预测市场显示其在 2026 年底前获签署成法的概率仅为 32%。随着参议院优先处理其他议题、夏季休会临近，以及稳定币付息、反洗钱及伦理条款等争议仍未解决，法案后续完成参议院表决、众议院确认及总统签署的时间窗口正进一步收窄。
市场仍缺乏新增流动性，比特币表现显现韧性
目前稳定币供应仍未恢复持续增长。自 2025 年 11 月以来，USDT 与 USDC 市值整体未出现明显扩张，反映数字资产市场尚未迎来新增美元流动性，市场若缺乏资金重新净流入，加密资产价格仍难形成持续上涨动力。
不过，相比多数山寨币，比特币仍展现出更强的相对表现。自 2025 年 10 月市场见顶以来，战术模型持续偏向比特币，不少旧周期项目仍受到历史筹码及解锁压力影响，而比特币在美联储持续偏鹰、《CLARITY 法案》前景转弱等利空叠加下，过去一周仅回调约 3%。这一韧性表明，需要调整仓位的投资者可能已基本完成调仓，市场从当前水平继续大幅下探的难度正在上升。
整体来看，当前市场仍面临偏鹰货币政策、监管进展放缓及资金观望等多重因素影响，但比特币在成交量低位及缺乏新增流动性的环境下仍保持相对稳定，反映当前周期的下行压力正逐步减弱。若后续比特币重新站上 70,000 美元，并推动多项指标转为看涨，则将进一步表明本轮周期低点已经确立。
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