每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)
- Core Thesis: This edition of Editor's Picks distills the week's most valuable industry insights from multiple dimensions, including macro landscape, investment and entrepreneurship, Crypto, Web3 & AI, and prediction markets. It focuses on key themes such as the market shift from war impact to supply recovery, investment risks under AI giant dominance, predictions for the crypto four-year cycle, and the financial risks lurking behind AI commercialization.
- Key Elements:
- With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, the market is shorting crude oil risk premiums and going long on airlines, tourism, and Asian energy importers. Meanwhile, supply chains for LNG, fertilizers, and related sectors are being repriced.
- Ray Dalio points out that when a few tech giants dominate index weightings, investors should be wary of concentration risk. He advises building diversified portfolios composed of low-correlation assets to navigate volatility.
- Cycle predictions for the crypto industry suggest that sectors like perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and asset tokenization are developing slowly due to policy constraints. By 2029, the core output will likely be an asset trading market.
- Three key bottom-fishing signals for BTC are flashing simultaneously: on-chain valuation, cycle position, and the proportion of long-term holders. The current zone is viewed as a window for staged accumulation requiring patience and discipline.
- The AI sector faces an estimated ~$1.8 trillion of off-balance-sheet exposure risk. Morgan Stanley warns that leverage ratios for hyperscale cloud companies are soaring; if AI commercialization falls short of expectations, the fragility of the financing chain will be exposed.
- In the prediction market space, the battle is shifting from a contest of markets to a war over distribution channels. Leveraging its user-access advantage, Robinhood is directing order flow away from Kalshi and into its own proprietary ecosystem.
- For SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts, on-chain markets face bottlenecks in handling corporate actions. The standardized mechanisms of traditional markets have yet to be rebuilt on-chain, creating a critical gap for development.
The flow of information is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of information to bring you these valuable pieces, helping filter out the noise, leaving insights, and offering inspiration.
Macro Situation
After the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Which Trades is the Market Betting On?
The conflict has largely shifted from the military sphere to the realm of negotiation. The market is transitioning from a "war shock" to a "supply recovery."
Following the reopening of the strait, the market is shorting the risk premium on crude oil, going long on airlines, cruise lines, and the tourism chain, going long on Asian energy-importing countries, going long on bond duration, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being re-priced.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Technological progress itself does not mean that related stocks are equally attractive. Major technological cycles in history often go through phases of excitement, overcrowding, volatility, and shakeout.
When a handful of tech companies account for an increasingly large weight in an index, investors need to be wary of unconsciously holding a highly correlated, concentrated, and risky exposure. Instead of continuing to chase a few leaders, a truly more robust approach is to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust the volatility level according to one's own risk tolerance.
Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction of the Four-Year Cycle in the Crypto Industry
Although the logic of the products in the three tracks of Perpetual Contracts for Non-Public Offerings, Stablecoins, and Asset Tokenization is sound and market demand is well-validated, external policy forces outside the industry severely limit the speed of development.
By 2029, what will remain in the public eye is the core product that the crypto industry has been truly building after cycles of speculation – the asset trading market.
When BTC was above $120,000, everyone was willing to believe it could go higher; but when it falls back to around $60,000, even as on-chain valuation, cycle position, long-term holder percentage, and macro variables all point towards a bottoming area, the market is most lacking in confidence.
The current zone is more akin to a window for phased accumulation that requires patience, discipline, and conviction.
Written After the SpaceX Debut: $2.1 Trillion Market Cap, Is It Still Worth Chasing?
SpaceX jumped $150 on its debut, with a market cap settling at $2.1 trillion. At its current stage, SpaceX's revenue simply cannot support its massive valuation.
Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable business. Space launches are SpaceX's flagship offering.
Besides the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the overly large proportion of retail investors in the IPO might also be a reason suppressing SPCX's stock price. Musk allocated 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors. The larger the proportion of retail shareholding, the greater the volatility. Retail investors can buy in without regard for cost due to FOMO, and can just as thoughtlessly sell emotionally on any fluctuation. Therefore, retail investors mainly affect volatility, not the final upside.
For investors focused on SpaceX, the following two time points are particularly important:
- Approximately 15 trading days after the IPO (expected around July 6-7), there's a very high probability SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq, at which point top-tier funds will be forced to buy this stock;
- SpaceX's Q2 earnings report (mid-to-early August).
The More It Rises, The More Dangerous It Gets? The Systemic Risks Behind SpaceX's Soaring Valuation
Gamma squeeze, a feedback loop where options market makers are forced to buy the underlying stock to hedge, further pushing up the price. If SpaceX replicates this path and is further propelled by its own narrative strength, limited free float, and Elon Musk's personal influence, it could evolve from a high-valuation stock into a systemic variable for the entire market.
The more dangerous part lies in indexing and passive investing. When a company's market cap becomes large enough, it gets included in major indices, passively held by ETFs, pensions, retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, the bubble is no longer just an adventure for a few traders but enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it goes, the harder it is for the market to bypass it; and the harder it is to bypass it, the more funds are likely to continue flowing into it.
The article discusses a structural paradox of modern capital markets: When market mechanisms themselves can amplify narrative, leverage, and liquidity enough to overwhelm fundamentals, can so-called "price discovery" still hold?
For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Buy HOOD
Under multiple bullish catalysts, HOOD has risen recently.
For a considerable period in the past, cryptocurrency-related revenue has been a significant part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price has shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. However, recently there have been signs that Robinhood is breaking its reliance on crypto revenue and moving away from this correlation positively. Its stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO offerings, and newly added underwriting business are still expected to support its revenue growth.
If the crypto market returns to a bull run in the future, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue will likely explode in tandem, and HOOD will continue to benefit from the dividends of industry growth.
Missing the Crypto Stock Wave, Korean Crypto Exchanges Forced to Chase "Meme Coins"
Amidst a weakening crypto market and a shift by Korean crypto investors towards stock trading, Korean exchanges saw their Q1 2026 earnings collectively decline, forcing them to urgently find measures to reverse the slump. However, unlike overseas exchanges that can transform into "everything exchanges" by listing a large number of tokenized stocks to meet crypto traders' demands, South Korea classifies tokenized stocks as securities, thus banning crypto exchanges from conducting such trades. It also prohibits Korean crypto exchanges from trading crypto futures, derivatives, or spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
South Korea's regulatory measures, intended to protect investors, have instead pushed crypto exchanges towards the most speculative corners of the market. With revenue sources and new product lines like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets all banned, exchanges, in order to boost platform trading volume, tend to choose to list attention-grabbing and more speculative "meme coins."
Web3 & AI
Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in non-cancelable lease contracts, and tens of billions in supplier financing arrangements collectively form an off-balance-sheet exposure of approximately $1.8 trillion. These liabilities sit off the balance sheet but genuinely lock in future cash outflows. The market has yet to fully price in this risk.
Morgan Stanley warns that the leverage ratio of hyperscalers has soared from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters, with capital expenditure growth consistently outpacing revenue and free cash flow growth. The real impact of depreciation pressure has yet to arrive.
Meanwhile, private credit institutions like Apollo and Blackstone are using SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) to transfer leverage to the supply chain level, creating a highly circular and opaque financing structure. If the commercialization of AI falls short of expectations, or if enterprise customers massively switch to cheaper alternatives, the fragility of the entire financing chain will be exposed.
Large models like Qianwen, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset possibilities, red card risks, key player performance, and match trend analysis.
For prediction market participants, AI pre-match analysis is becoming an additional reference layer alongside odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.
Who Gets Your AI Monthly Fee? A Chart Breaking Down the Compute Supply Chain Behind $20
A cost breakdown chart for the $20 Claude subscription, dividing the monthly AI fee among model companies, cloud compute, GPUs, electricity, and the supply chain.
AI subscriptions have ongoing inference costs and cannot directly apply the high-margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.
Related tickers: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and the power supply chain.
Prediction Markets
The First Pure-Play Prediction Market Stock Has Arrived!
Kalshi had previously announced a partnership with US online brokerage Robinhood, where the latter would leverage the former to provide prediction market trading services to its users, allowing bets on political, economic, and sports events. But recently, this relationship has seen some subtle changes. Robinhood has gradually realized that what's truly scarce might not be the market itself, but the user entry point it firmly controls. Robinhood holds a crucial resource – distribution capability.
After about six months of accelerated development, the Rothera product gradually took shape, and Robinhood finally made the almost inevitable move – gradually shifting orders that originally flowed to Kalshi into its own controlled system. Robinhood deliberately chose a perfect launchpad for Rothera: the World Cup.
If the theme of the prediction market industry in the past few years was the market share battle between Polymarket and Kalshi, then the theme for the coming years might turn into a distribution channel war.
Also recommended: “World Cup Kickoff: A Look at the ‘Huge Gains’ and ‘Massive Losses’ in Prediction Markets.”
CeFi & DeFi
IOSG: The First Real-World Test of Three Perpetual Mechanisms on the Day of SpaceX's IPO
Without a public spot price, how does the market price an asset? That is the core challenge the entire Pre-IPO perpetual category needs to solve.
In the SpaceX case, trade.xyz captured the on-chain market (~96.5% of volume), not because its oracle was smarter, but because near-zero funding rates made holding the position near costless. It launched right at the IPO catalyst, was priced per share, and enabled cross-exchange arbitrage.
However, while Pre-IPO perpetuals are good at handling price, their handling of events is still primitive. Corporate actions, especially a stock split after conversion, have no pipeline on-chain: trade.xyz hasn't announced any rebase mechanism, while Ventuals outsourced this to a single data provider, which has already caused an issue (an outdated split data point caused its market to flash crash 45%). The bottleneck isn't price discovery, but that boring "corporate action" processing layer. Traditional markets spent a century standardizing it; on-chain, no one has rebuilt it yet. Whoever can deliver it credibly fills the last remaining gap between these markets and the ones they seek to replace.
STRC Severely De-pegs, What Risk is the Market Pricing In?
STRC fell to around $89, translating to a simple current yield of ~12.9% based on an $11.5 annualized dividend.
Market disagreement is not about whether Strategy will immediately default on dividends, but about how to discount the BTC reserve, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competition from similar products.
Related tickers: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.
STRC De-pegs 11%, Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Still Turn?
The market's pricing of STRC reflects not only investor sentiment towards a preferred stock but also the market's confidence in Strategy's entire capital operation model.
Within Strategy's balance sheet expansion loop, STRC is not just an ordinary financing tool, but the most powerful engine of Strategy's current capital flywheel. Through the closed loop of “issuing STRC -> raising fiat currency -> buying BTC -> increasing company net asset value -> boosting STRC trust,” Strategy has successfully built a capital flywheel that seems infinitely cyclical. However, the key prerequisite for this flywheel to run smoothly is that STRC must maintain its value near the $100 face value.
The failure of the dividend adjustment effect means the market is pricing in risks that extend beyond STRC's yield itself. First, there are superficial technical factors. Some market participants believe the recent decline is largely due to a concentrated cascade of deleveraging by arbitrage funds. A deeper concern lies with Strategy's liquidity reserve status.
Annualized 15%-25%, Is BlackRock's Bitcoin Yield ETF an Opportunity or a Trap?
BITA, anchored by BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund IBIT, generates stable option premium income for investors by selling covered call options, at the cost of sacrificing some of Bitcoin's significant upside potential. This yield-oriented Bitcoin fund is specifically designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, addressing the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets.
Fund flows will provide the final answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin while BTC holds the $65,000 range, it suggests sustainable institutional buying. Conversely, if the yield ETF merely diverts existing funds from the spot fund, the bears' "yield trap" assessment would be validated.
Ethereum & Scaling
Sharplink CEO: One Million Ethereum Developers, Who Can Compete?
Ethereum's core advantage isn't speed, but aggregating the largest and deepest talent pool; its true moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built on composability, standard-setting, and credible neutrality; these builders are focusing on frontier issues like scalability and quantum resistance, continuously cementing Ethereum's position as the default operating system for financial internet.
Weekly Hot Topic Catch-up
Policy & Macro Markets
Iranian media published detailed terms of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds;
The US and Iran announced an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts;
