每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0801-0807)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-08-08 02:09

This article is about 4587 words, reading the full article takes about 7 minutes

Quality in-depth analysis articles and a weekly roundup of hot topics.

AI Summary

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Core Insights: This week's featured content focuses on the impact of macro policy shifts on the crypto market, the valuation restructuring of the AI and storage industries, and the competitive divergence within the stablecoin and CeFi sectors. The articles point out that rising expectations of a September Fed rate hike will exert direct pressure on the crypto market, the AI capital expenditure narrative is facing market repricing, and the cyclical bottom of the storage industry has been lifted above historical peaks due to AI demand.
Key Elements:
1. The probability of a September Fed rate hike is influenced by the July CPI report—if energy inflation persists, the likelihood of a hike increases; rate cut expectations are mostly concentrated after 2027, with a cumulative magnitude of approximately 50 basis points.
2. If AI-related tech giants face rate hikes, rising financing costs will compress returns on capital expenditure; stocks of companies with negative cash flow and lacking growth narratives may see increased volatility.
3. Leverage ETF margin requirements on the Korean stock market tripled, and after foreign capital bottom-fished, Morgan Stanley issued an "overweight" rating; market turbulence drove over 24 trillion KRW back into bank time deposits.
4. SpaceX's Q2 revenue surged 92% yet still fell below its IPO price, dragged down by AI capital expenditure concerns and selling pressure from approximately 910 million shares unlocking on August 6.
5. Unitree Robotics priced its IPO at approximately 150.80 yuan per share, corresponding to a valuation of about 61 billion yuan and a P/E ratio exceeding 100 times; the company is benchmarked against Figure AI and UBTech, with a fractured valuation reference framework, making profitability and scaled delivery capabilities its core advantages.
6. Circle's valuation divergence is significant: Morgan Stanley cut its target price to $38, while TD Cowen issued a Buy rating with a target of $82; the core disagreement lies in whether Circle is positioned as a stablecoin issuer or a financial infrastructure platform.
7. Hashdex's Bitcoin ETF became the first U.S. product to be liquidated, and the four smallest funds by AUM have annual management fee revenues near the breakeven line, reflecting a winner-take-all dynamic in the industry.

The news feed moves too fast, and in-depth analysis articles can easily be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column sifts through the vast amount of information to surface content with true judgment value, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and spark inspiration.

Macro Landscape

Is a September Fed Rate Hike Inevitable? How Will Crypto and US Stocks Cope?

A noticeable gap remains between market pricing and the overall expectations of economists. Most still believe that a rate cut cycle will resume in 2027, with cumulative cuts of around 50 basis points. The market's consensus next key node is the July CPI report, set for release on August 12. If the data shows June's moderation was genuine and sustainable, the probability of a September hike will likely fall back towards the economist consensus. However, if the data shows energy-driven inflation re-accelerating—especially with the Iran ceasefire still incomplete and oil prices holding above $80—the odds of a September hike will climb even higher.

A rate hike would exert direct, rapid downward pressure on crypto market sentiment.

For AI-related tech giants, if a September hike actually materializes, rising corporate financing costs would directly compress the marginal returns on their capital expenditures. At that point, the market's tolerance for the "burn cash on AI for growth" narrative could narrow further. Companies with already negative cash flow and no compelling growth story to tell could see more violent stock price swings than this July's round.

Don't Dismiss the "AI Stock Guru Blowup" and "Korean Stock Crash" as Noise – They Are a Preview of a Much Bigger Storm

Both events are symptoms of the same underlying condition: leverage—present in ETFs, margin accounts, and hedge fund books—leverage that was fostered by over a decade of low and stable interest rates.

The frequent occurrence of "small volatility" events is no coincidence.

The report quotes analyst Rob Armstrong, noting that Fed Chair Warsh's withdrawal of forward guidance may not be a mistake, but rather a deliberate policy choice—aimed at reintroducing an "uncertainty premium" to the market to curb excessive leverage.

Two areas still with hidden pent-up risks are private equity and publicly listed companies.

Surged 20% Then Fell 5%: When Will the Korean Stock Market Bottom Out?

Investment size in Korean stocks has shrunk, with funds flowing back to banks;

Korean stock regulators stepped in: margin requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs tripled, with plans to invoke "emergency intervention powers";

After foreign capital bottom-fished, Morgan Stanley issued an "Overweight" rating.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Q2 Revenue Surged 92% Yet Still Below IPO Price: Should You Buy or Wait on SpaceX?

At this stage, the market's overall concerns about massive AI capital expenditures are dragging on SpaceX.

On the micro level, the unlock of approximately 910 million restricted shares on August 6 will bring selling pressure to the market.

A Look Ahead at Unitree Robotics' IPO Pricing: How Much Is This Robotics Company Actually Worth?

Unitree's preliminary bookbuilding occurred on August 5, the offering price will be finalized on August 6, with online and offline subscriptions on August 10. Results will be announced on August 14, and the industry expects listing around August 19, subject to official Shanghai Stock Exchange announcements.

Based on the RMB 4.2 billion fundraising target and the issuance of 40.4464 million shares, the offering price is estimated to be around RMB 104 per share, corresponding to a post-issuance base valuation of approximately RMB 42 billion (about $6.2 billion). This estimate is based on the public offering plan, with the final price subject to the August 6 announcement. Based on 2025 non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent of RMB 600.1 million, the RMB 42 billion valuation translates to a P/E ratio of roughly 70x. Based on 2025 revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, it's about 25x price-to-sales. If the secondary market pushes the valuation to RMB 100 billion as some discussions suggest, the P/E ratio would exceed 160x.

Valuation benchmarks are wildly divergent. US-based Figure AI, despite lacking scale revenue, has a rumored private valuation as high as $39 billion (approximately RMB 280 billion). Meanwhile, UBTech, listed in Hong Kong, has been chronically loss-making. Unitree is the only target among the three that is both profitable and shipping at scale.

Fundamentals are being pulled in two directions simultaneously.

Unitree IPO's Wealth Feast is Destined for Only a Few to Profit

Despite recent extreme market volatility, Unitree's IPO subscriptions will remain scarce, "because people believe this is a policy-supported industry, and the leader will definitely rally." For every 10,000 valid subscription numbers, only about 2 will win an allocation. In this capital feast propped up by the embodied intelligence narrative, a fault line is emerging between the wealth creation in the primary market and the realities of the secondary market.

The primary market expects Unitree to surge. Sentiment in the secondary market remains divided. Unitree's valuation anchor isn't Unitree itself; the entire humanoid robot sector's key still depends on whether Tesla can open up expectations.

Ahead of Circle's Earnings, Wall Street Deeply Divided on CRCL Valuation

Morgan Stanley downgraded Circle from Equal Weight to Underweight, slashing its price target from $106 to $38.

TD Cowen, however, initiated coverage with a Buy rating and set a price target of $82.

The core disagreement between the two is whether to continue viewing Circle as a stablecoin issuer dependent on USDC's scale growth, or as a tech company evolving into a digital financial infrastructure platform.

For a companion read with the earnings analysis: "Circle's Q2 Report Is Out – Does It Settle the Bull/Bear Debate on Wall Street?".

When Dark Pools Dominate and Whales Hide: How Reliable Are Public Market Signals?

Institutions have a strong incentive to hide their trading trails. Once a trading pattern is identified by the market, other participants will engage in counter-trading against it. The informational advantage of tracking whales is being actively eroded.

Traders should not treat volume from a single exchange as a full picture of the overall market; before referencing listed exchange fee rates, compare comprehensive trading costs across different channels; when order book depth is insufficient, use limit orders to prevent market orders from impacting prices.

After Talking with Frontline Practitioners, I Found That On-Chain Brokerages Aren't a Great Business

A deep understanding of the business logic, applying for and maintaining compliance licenses, and building user trust across the entire product design process are all initial hurdles.

To "make money alongside users," rather than just "earning user fees," there are still many business systems worth developing.

From the perspective of profit capture and self-sustaining growth, crypto exchanges crush brokerages. Considering compliance, volatility, and liquidity risks, on-chain brokerages are not an easy business to be in.

AI & Storage

How to Interpret the AI Correction: Deep Dive into Morgan Stanley's 120-Page Report

The main driver of the correction is technical factors, not a breakdown in fundamental logic.

Explaining Storage Long-Term Agreements: This Cycle's Bottom Has Been Lifted Above Historical Peaks

Pricing power in the storage industry is shifting from buyers to sellers.

The definition of the storage industry's "cyclical bottom" has been rewritten. The floor of this cycle has been raised to surpass the ceiling of past cycles.

Apple, Standing on the Other Side of the AI Boom: Why a Perfect Report Led to a Nearly 10% Plunge?

The global competition for semiconductor resources driven by AI is transmitting from data centers to consumer electronics, and even Apple, with the world's strongest supply chain management, cannot remain immune.

TSMC is the true "toll booth" spanning both types of demand.

The market repricing Apple reflects a shift in the AI narrative. At this stage, Apple's advantage isn't training the model with the most parameters, but possessing one of the world's largest entry points for high-value consumer devices. This path of "device distribution + subscription services" is a key reason for Apple's repricing as AI capex controversy heats up.

Western Digital Earned $3.195 Billion in a Quarter, but How Much Did the HDD Business Actually Make?

US storage company Western Digital's latest FY2026 Q4 earnings release reported revenue of $3.747 billion. On a GAAP basis, EPS was $8.21. According to the company announcement, the mark-to-market gain on its SanDisk stake was also included in the income statement.

This gives Western Digital's results a two-layered interpretation. First, the core HDD business, post the flash memory spin-off, sold more and was more profitable. Second, the retained SanDisk equity fluctuates with market value, pushing GAAP profit to a level that isn't suitable for directly measuring the HDD business.

The most interesting aspect of Western Digital's report isn't that a hard drive suddenly has a chip-like valuation narrative, but that after spinning off the flash memory business, both revenue and profit margins for the core HDD business have indeed thickened together.

SanDisk Posts Record Earnings – Why Did It Still Fall 8% After Hours?

The market isn't denying SanDisk's delivered performance; it's worried about whether future growth rates can continue to meet even higher expectations.

Policy & Stablecoins

The Policy Green Light Is On, So Why Hasn't Bitcoin Escaped Its Bear Market?

Removing policy restrictions only lowers the barrier to holding assets; it doesn't create incentives for investors to increase positions. Institutional entry channels are fully open, but institutional investment enthusiasm has long evaporated.

Policy has genuinely changed only three things: industry operating licenses, institutional entry channels, and compliance risks. The crypto industry now must prove its irreplaceable value within the financial system.

CeFi & DeFi

Winner Takes All: First Spot Bitcoin ETF Liquidated, Survival Crisis Looms for Smaller Players

On August 3, asset manager Hashdex announced it would close and liquidate its Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (NYSE Arca: DEFI), marking the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US market to officially announce liquidation.

Hashdex stated the decision was based on a comprehensive assessment of factors including assets under management, trading liquidity, operating costs, and investor interest.

WisdomTree BTCW ($143 million), Invesco BTCO ($348 million), Franklin EZBC ($370 million), and Valkyrie BRRR ($377 million) are the four smallest funds. Among them, BTCW is closest to the safety margin, with annual management fees of approximately $357,000 at a 0.25% fee rate. If its scale continues to shrink, it could enter a loss-making zone.