Bitcoin's Short-Term Bullish Structure Validated, HYPE's Dip-Buying Window Opens | Guest Analysis

The market environment this week is exceptionally complex — the U.S.-Iran agreement exceeded expectations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a dramatic repricing of global assets, and such violent emotional swings are precisely when structural analysis provides the most value. The louder the noise, the more important the framework.

This week, we focus on two main themes: After BTC rose above $65,000, how will the outcome of the pullback confirmation battle determine its subsequent direction? And after HYPE completed a four-segment adjustment, will the resistance test in the $62.5 to $64.57 range create new short-term trading opportunities?

A complete structural analysis of the trends, market forecasts, and trading strategies can be found in the main text below.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• Analysis of BTC's hourly-level trend structure. (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC market forecast for this week and medium/long-term trading strategies. (Detailed in Part 2) 

• Analysis of HYPE's hourly-level trend structure. (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE market forecast for this week and short-term trading strategies. (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• HYPE Short-term Trading Results: One short-term long position was executed last week (1x leverage), achieving a return of approximately 11.88%. (See Table 1 for details)

• BTC Trend Forecast Market Validation: Last week's article pointed out that after an instantaneous dip below the $60,000 mark, the price would find support and initiate a short-term rebound to confirm the validity of the breakdown of this key level. Current market action confirms our previous forecast.

• HYPE Trend Forecast Market Validation: Last week's article suggested that when HYPE's price retests the key support zone of $55-57 and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals triggered by two models, one could consider opening a small long position. Current market action is highly consistent with our forecast.

1. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in Figure 1, since the adjustment from the high of $82,850 on May 6, the 4-hour chart can be subdivided into a 12-segment adjustment structure. This includes two declining中枢: Central D and Central E. The overall structure is clear, exhibiting a typical complex adjustment pattern.

② From the perspective of the 4-hour structure, the price is currently in the 38-39 segment rebound. The price has now risen above $65,000. If the breakout is confirmed as valid, the next significant resistance for this rebound lies in the $69,500 to $70,500 zone.

2. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Price Trend Forecast for This Week:

Core View for This Week: Focus on the outcome of the pullback confirmation following the breakout above $65,000.

• If the pullback fails, the market may retest the core support zone of $60,000 to $62,000.

• If it holds firmly, the price will challenge the core resistance zone of $69,500 to $70,500. This area will be our key target for planning medium-term short positions.

2. Key Resistance Levels:             

   • First Resistance Zone: $69,500 - $70,500 (Previous dense volume area)  

   • Second Resistance Zone: $72,500 - $74,500 (Previous dense volume area)  

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: Around $65,000

    • Second Support Zone: $59,000 - $60,000 (Previous key support level)

    • Third Support Level: Around $55,000 (Previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding unexpected news impacts)

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 2

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 2, the price has effectively broken below the "Long-Short Channel," and the technical structure has shifted to a bearish-dominant pattern. Since the market did not meet the conditions for our planned short positions last week, we currently hold no medium-term positions.

This week, based on the outcome of the long-short battle at $65,000, we can gradually build short positions according to the following three-tier strategy:

• Add on Strong Resistance: If the price successfully holds above the $65,000 zone and subsequently rallies to the $69,500 - $70,500 zone showing clear signs of resistance, consider establishing medium-term short positions, keeping total position size below 60%.

• Go Short on Breakdown: If the price loses the $65,000 support level with a confirmed breakdown signal, consider initiating a 30% medium-term short position.

• Add to Short on Further Breakdown: If the price loses the $65,000 support and effectively breaks below the $59,000 - $60,000 support zone, consider adding to the short positions, keeping total position size below 60%.

② Short-Term Strategy: Use 30% of capital with stop-loss orders. Look for "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-min/60-min chart as the operating cycle).

③ To dynamically adapt to complex market changes in short-term trading, we have prepared two specific action plans, Plan A and Plan B.

 • Plan A: Build positions in the strong resistance zone.

    • Entry: If the price successfully holds above the $65,000 zone and later rallies to the $69,500 - $70,500 area showing signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from quantitative models, open short positions with less than 30% of capital.

    • Risk Management: Set initial stop-loss.

    • Exit: When the price pulls back to key support levels with corresponding model signals, gradually close all positions to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Go short on a confirmed breakdown of support.

   • Entry: If the price loses the $65,000 support level with a confirmed breakdown signal, open short positions with less than 30% of capital.

   • Risk Management: Set initial stop-loss.

   • Exit: When the price declines to key support levels with corresponding model signals, gradually close all positions to lock in profits.

3. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Trend Structure

HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

1. As shown in Figure 3, on the 4-hour timeframe, since HYPE's adjustment from the high of $75.87 on June 2, it can be subdivided into a four-segment adjustment structure: (47-48), (48-49), (49-50), (50-51).

2. Currently, HYPE's price has stabilized and rebounded from the support zone around $52, and is in the process of the (50-51 segment) rebound. The overhead resistance lies in the $62.5 to $64.57 zone. If point 51 forms a high within this zone (high probability of constructing a "declining center" structure here), the price will likely continue its search for stronger support to the downside.

 4. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Price Trend Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $62.5 - $64.57 zone;

• Second Resistance Level: $68 - $70 zone;

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: $52 - $55.5 zone;

• Second Support Level: $47 - $49 zone;

Core View on HYPE for This Week:

• Observe the resistance effect in the $62.5 - $64.57 zone and the location where point 51 forms a price high.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: (Go long on support)

This week's short-term trading for HYPE should follow the strategy of "accumulate on dips, avoid chasing rallies."

Short-Term Strategy: Go long on stabilization at support zones

When HYPE's price retests the key support zone of $52 - $54.5, or the deeper zone of $47 - $49, and shows signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, one could consider a small long position. Position size must be strictly controlled below 30%, and stop-loss discipline must be observed.

5. HYPE Trade Review

1. Short-Term Trading Review: (See Table 1)

Strictly following our trading plan and based on trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term long position last week, achieving a profit of 11.88%.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trade Detail Summary: (Leverage: 1x)

3. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 4)

① Entry Strategy:

  • A relatively complete bearish adjustment structure had already unfolded;

  • The proprietary "Spread Trading Model" had issued a strong early warning bottom signal (red and white dots in the chart);

  • The proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" had issued a momentum divergence bottom signal;

Based on the above three signals, we opened a 30% long position near $54.39.

② Exit Strategy:

  • Resistance signals appeared when the price rose to around $62.5;

  • The proprietary "Spread Trading Model" had issued an early warning top signal (white dot in the chart);

  • The proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" had issued a momentum divergence top signal;

Therefore, we closed all positions near $60.85.

 ③ Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 11.88%.

HYPE 30-Minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 4 (Short-Term Trade Diagram)

6. Special Reminders:​​

 1. Upon entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.

 2. When profit reaches 1%: Move stop-loss to entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.

 3. When profit reaches 2%​​: Move stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

 4. Continuous tracking: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, move the stop-loss 1% accordingly to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets are rapidly changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis and serve solely as a personal trading journal. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. Markets involve risk; investment requires caution. Do not make decisions based on this content.