Odaily Exclusive: Polymarket Opens Store in New York, Kalshi Gives Away $50 Supermarket Vouchers — Are Prediction Markets Also Handing Out Eggs?
- Core Viewpoint: The two leading U.S. prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are conducting offline promotions in New York by distributing free food to attract users. Their underlying intent goes beyond brand marketing and user acquisition; it likely aims to influence New York State's regulatory stance on prediction markets by aligning with local political issues.
- Key Elements:
- Kalshi is hosting pop-up events in New York supermarkets, offering users limited-time $50 worth of free food, aiming to attract participation in its predictions on everyday events.
- Polymarket announced the opening of "New York's First Free Grocery Store" and donated $1 million to New York City food banks, with a more systematic and public welfare-oriented approach to its campaign.
- Estimates suggest $50 in New York can buy approximately 1.5 pounds of beef or 5 McDonald's meals, covering nearly two days of food costs for an average person, which has attracted large crowds of local residents to queue up.
- The activities of both platforms closely resemble the policy proposal by New York's new mayor to "open publicly-owned grocery stores to lower food prices," indicating an intent to align with local political issues through public welfare actions.
- New York State legislators are reviewing a new bill that could impose strict restrictions or licensing requirements on prediction markets. These platforms' actions may be an effort to seek a more favorable regulatory environment amid tightening oversight.
Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
"Each generation has its own eggs to claim," and the weight of this statement continues to grow!
This time, the battle for eggs is being stirred up by the duopoly of the prediction market—Kalshi and Polymarket.
To capture more attention ahead of the "American Super Bowl," the two platforms have recently launched their own "ground promotion performances." Kalshi is offering users $50 worth of free groceries at a supermarket in New York, while Polymarket is going even further by launching New York's "first free grocery store," which it has been preparing for months and plans to officially open on February 12. In the competition for attention and user growth, these prediction market giants, valued at tens of billions of dollars, have chosen the most old-fashioned but effective route: offline ground promotions.
Regarding this matter, we immediately contacted Odaily's New York-based colleague Connie to get the latest updates on "Kalshi and Polymarket's offline promotions" and real information such as "how much can $50 actually buy in New York City," which we are sharing with our readers.
When Prediction Market Giants Engage in Ground Promotions: Kalshi's Pop-up vs. Polymarket's "Instant Store"
As one of America's top metropolises, New York has become a battleground and focal point for the two prediction market giants, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Addressing the increasingly prominent issue of rising living costs in New York and across the U.S., both Kalshi and Polymarket have rolled out major initiatives—
On February 3, Kalshi offered [limited-time] $50 worth of free groceries to select users at the Westside Market on 84 Third Avenue in New York, aiming to attract more users to participate in various real-world event predictions on its platform.
Judging from the surrounding "flyers," "supermarket KT boards," and other promotional materials, Kalshi's offline promotion resembles an impromptu "pop-up event." It involves collaborating with a local supermarket to deploy offline materials for a short period, using the "bait" of "$50 worth of free groceries" to attract people to queue up, participate, and gather on-site. This has been verified and confirmed by Connie.
Furthermore, it's evident that through this pop-up event, Kalshi hopes to attract more people to join the prediction market by betting on everyday, low-barrier, easy-to-understand questions like "Will New York City's gas price exceed $3.3 this year?" This strategy aims to achieve business goals such as brand marketing, user activation, and new user acquisition.
Kalshi's co-branded pop-up supermarket eggs were snapped up
Compared to Kalshi's somewhat crude and highly commercialized approach, Polymarket's preparations appear much more thorough.
On February 3, slightly earlier than Kalshi's official announcement, Polymarket announced that after months of offline preparation, it plans to open "New York's first free grocery store" on February 12 (EST) by leasing a physical storefront. Additionally, Polymarket donated $1 million to the New York City Food Bank to address the region's "hunger issue."
Polymarket also released real photos of distributing vegetables like tomatoes and eggplants offline, instantly reminiscent of the era of domestic internet platform ground promotions, evoking a strong sense of "download the app to get eggs" or "first recharge to get a new user gift package."
It's worth noting that Polymarket not only emphasized that "Polymarket's offline store is well-stocked, no purchase necessary" but also called on people in its tweet to donate to the New York City Food Bank, encouraging practical actions to address the real "hunger issue" caused by high food costs and persistently high living expenses.
Seeing this scene, I couldn't help but sigh—
Fake crypto project ground promotions: Host offline conferences, feast on seafood, hype various fake concept tokens;
Real crypto project ground promotions: Give away vegetables, give away eggs, open offline stores offering free food, engage in charity and public welfare, call on people to donate and show compassion.
Regarding the real purchasing power of Kalshi and Polymarket's "egg collection activities," we also had a detailed discussion with Connie, Odaily's correspondent in New York.
The Real Purchasing Power of $50 in New York City: 5 McDonald's Meals, 1.5 lbs of Beef, or 2 Days of Food for an Average Person
According to Connie, the real purchasing power of $50 in New York City can indeed be considered "quite valuable."
"Buying a 0.5 lb (approximately 0.45 kg) portion of beef at a local New York supermarket costs about $18, so $50 could buy about 1.5 lbs of beef," which is sufficient for an adult's protein intake across three meals a day. For comparison, the price of one pound of beef in China is only around 30 RMB, which is only about 1/8th of the cost in New York City.
Converting to the well-known "Big Mac Index," the real purchasing power of $50 is also quite astonishing—a cheeseburger meal delivery with 800-1000 calories costs about $10.89, so $50 could buy about 5 meals. If buying a double cheeseburger with 580 calories, it only costs around $7.20. Of course, this price would be considered "exorbitant" in China, where a similar burger meal costs only 25-40 RMB, which is about half the price of the same food in New York City.
In other words, spending frugally, $50 is close to covering an average person's food costs for about 2 days in New York (calculated as 5-6 meals). According to Connie, Kalshi's event attracted many Americans to queue up for 'free food,' and 'Americans' enthusiasm for queuing for free stuff is even higher than that of Chinese people.' Polymarket's "offline free grocery store" is also expected to attract a large crowd. Based on the existing information released by Kalshi and Polymarket, the hard costs for the two platforms' related activities are likely at least $50,000 to $100,000.
Beyond charity and goodwill, Kalshi and Polymarket, having invested so much manpower and resources, also have their own "calculations."
The "Business Logic" Behind Prediction Market Platforms "Giving Away Eggs": Influencing Institutional Regulation Through Political Issues
Both Kalshi and Polymarket's food donation activities were conducted without coordination or communication with the New York City government; they were spontaneous corporate actions.
However, the wording and stated purposes of their public statements bear a striking resemblance to the "policies" repeatedly emphasized by New York's new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, during his campaign. The latter proposed "opening publicly-owned grocery stores in New York's five boroughs to lower food prices." Zohran Mamdani pointed out that city-owned grocery stores could reduce rent and operational costs through non-profit operation models and the use of public property. This proposal is currently still in the pilot stage, with no final implementation timeline determined.
On another front, as one of America's key states, New York's legislators are actively drafting new bills targeting the emerging prediction market industry. Among them, the "ORACLE Act" plans to restrict or prohibit New York residents from betting on certain prediction market events and impose stricter limitations on event-based prediction markets. Another piece of legislation plans to require prediction market operators to obtain a state-issued license before operating.
It's evident that some legislative decision-makers still harbor various concerns about prediction markets, viewing them as akin to unregulated gambling or as being more susceptible to insider manipulation.
In light of this, although the New York City mayor does not have direct jurisdiction over prediction market regulation (Odaily Note: Regulatory authority over prediction market platforms belongs to state and federal governments), Kalshi and Polymarket's actions might also be an attempt to seek regulatory friendliness through indirect means.
Finally, regardless of the ultimate impact of their "egg-giving" actions, we must say that China's internet promotion models are at least 5-10 years ahead of the Western world.
