Prediction Market Activity Hits Record Highs: Key Events for Leading Projects to Watch

Asher

Odaily资深作者

@Asher_0210

2026-02-02 10:31

This article is about 3438 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

Opinion may delay TGE; predict.fun launches Boost points campaign; Probable launches liquidity points rewards.

AI Summary

Expand

Core View: Despite the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, the prediction market sector has shown active performance, with weekly transaction counts reaching a record high. Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space, and various projects are actively expanding their businesses, forming partnerships, and innovating their products.
Key Elements:
1. According to Dune data, the total number of transactions in prediction markets last week reached 26.39 million, setting a new historical record. Polymarket (13.34 million) and Kalshi (11.88 million) ranked first and second.
2. Polymarket's weekly trading volume reached $2 billion, an increase of 18.4% week-over-week. It expanded into real estate prediction markets and secured exclusive partnerships with the Golden Globe Awards and Major League Soccer (MLS).
3. Kalshi's weekly trading volume was $1.4 billion, but its trading volume over the past 30 days has shown a declining trend. As the contract provider for Coinbase's prediction market, it is now fully operational in all 50 US states.
4. BNB Chain ecosystem project Opinion, affected by the market crash, saw the market's predicted probability of its governance token launching before February 17th plummet from over 70% to around 35%.
5. Emerging platforms like predict.fun are enhancing liquidity by launching Boost points campaigns and innovative events (e.g., "CZ's number of tweets"), while Probable announced the launch of liquidity points rewards to improve the trading environment.

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Despite the market crash last weekend, the weekly transaction count for prediction markets hit a record high. According to Dune data, prediction markets recorded 26.39 million transactions last week. Among them, Polymarket led with 13.34 million transactions, Kalshi followed with 11.88 million, and Opinion ranked third with 379.3 thousand transactions.

Prediction market weekly transaction count data

Below, Odaily provides a roundup of recent developments for leading prediction market projects.

Two Leaders: Polymarket and Kalshi

According to DeFi Rate data, alongside the record-high weekly transaction count, the trading volumes for the two leaders, Polymarket and Kalshi, have also remained elevated recently.

Specifically, Polymarket's weekly volume reached $2 billion, up 18.4% week-over-week, ranking first among similar platforms. Kalshi's weekly volume was $1.4 billion, with a weekly increase of 8.5%, placing it second.

Looking at a longer timeframe, the past 30 days' trading data shows a clear divergence: Polymarket's volume has maintained an overall upward trend, possibly linked to rising market expectations for its potential token launch. In contrast, Kalshi's volume has continued to decline over the past 30 days, showing a more pronounced downward trend.

Beyond trading volume data, noteworthy recent developments for the two leaders include:

Polymarket

1. Polymarket has begun charging up to 3% in trading fees for its 15-minute crypto up/down markets. Data shows that a "Trading Fees" page has been added to Polymarket's official documentation, explicitly stating that fees will be enabled for the 15-minute crypto up/down markets. This adjustment indicates Polymarket has started charging up to 3% in taker fees on these short-term markets.

2. Polymarket launched a real estate prediction market, allowing users to bet on housing price trends. On-chain real estate platform Parcl announced a partnership with Polymarket, aiming to integrate Parcl's daily housing price index into Polymarket's new real estate prediction market. Users can predict the rise, fall, or threshold outcomes of specific city housing price indices on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Each market will reference a dedicated Parcl analytics page to display the final settlement value, historical index context, and calculation methodology.

3. Polymarket was designated as the prediction market partner for the Golden Globe Awards, and a Polymarket Golden Globes prediction market dashboard was launched at the event. Polymarket posted on X, stating it has been named the exclusive prediction market partner for the Golden Globe Awards. Additionally, the official Golden Globes account posted: "Golden Globes awards season meets Polymarket's prediction season," accompanied by an image of the Polymarket Golden Globes prediction market dashboard.

4. Jupiter announced it will integrate the prediction market Polymarket. Jupiter posted on X announcing the integration of prediction market Polymarket. This integration will make Jupiter an innovative prediction platform on Solana, allowing users to directly access Polymarket through the "Predict" feature built into the Jupiter App.

5. Polymarket secured an exclusive licensing partnership with Major League Soccer (MLS). Polymarket announced it has signed a multi-year exclusive licensing agreement with Major League Soccer (MLS), becoming MLS's sole prediction market partner. The agreement covers the MLS Cup, various division tournaments, and the All-Star Game. The partnership will also introduce new fan experiences, including "second-screen interaction" during matches, to enhance viewer engagement.

Kalshi

Trading on the Kalshi platform requires passing U.S. KYC verification first, making participation difficult for the vast majority of users. Therefore, noteworthy developments are mostly at a macro level.

1. Kalshi will host its first Prediction Market Conference in March. Kalshi CEO and Co-founder Tarek Mansour posted on X, announcing plans to host the first Prediction Market Conference in March. Researchers, economists, policymakers, and traders will gather to discuss core issues surrounding prediction markets and knowledge aggregation.

2. Coinbase Prediction Markets are now fully live in all 50 U.S. states through Kalshi. Coinbase recently announced that its Prediction Markets, through its partnership with Kalshi, are now officially available to users in all 50 U.S. states, marking the product's transition from a limited testing phase to nationwide rollout. The service allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events in politics, sports, entertainment, culture, and macroeconomic indicators.

Coinbase stated that all prediction market contracts are currently provided by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated compliant prediction market platform. More platform contracts may be integrated in the coming months. Prediction market contract prices reflect the market's collective probability judgment on event outcomes. Users can manage related trades within the same Coinbase interface alongside crypto assets, stocks, and cash positions, with a minimum trade amount of $1 (USD or USDC).

Opinion: TGE Potentially Delayed Due to Market Crash

Opinion is the first prediction market platform on the BNB Chain ecosystem. According to ROOTDATA, Opinion announced the completion of a $5 million seed round on March 18 this year. The round was led by YZi Labs, with participation from echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold, Amber Group, and others. Additionally, Opinion was one of the four top-performing projects in the previous Binance Labs MVB program.

According to official information, on January 26, Opinion's website added an airdrop binding interface, supporting distribution binding for up to 5 wallets. This move may indicate an impending token airdrop from Opinion.

Opinion website's new airdrop binding interface

Furthermore, Opinion founder Forrest indicated in an official Discord interaction late last year that "TGE is not expected to be later than February 17th (Chinese New Year)."

Opinion founder's reply regarding TGE

However, due to last week's market crash, community members generally believe Opinion will delay its TGE. According to Polymarket data, the probability for the event "Will Opinion officially launch a governance token by February 17?" has continuously fallen from over 70% at the end of January, dropping below 15% at its lowest, and has since rebounded slightly to currently report 35%.

Significant drop in probability for the "Opinion launching governance token by Feb 17" event

predict.fun: Points Campaign Enters Week 7; Platform Liquidity Improves After Launch of Boost Points Campaign

predict.fun is a prediction market platform launched on BNB Chain, founded by dingaling, a well-known figure in the NFT space. Unlike traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun has implemented a key innovation: funds used for predictions are not idle; they can simultaneously generate additional yield during the prediction period.

On January 20, predict.fun announced the launch of its Boost points multiplier campaign. Events marked with a golden "Boosted" badge will award more points (the specific multiplier has not been disclosed), with many being sports events.

predict.fun launches Boost campaign

Furthermore, to diversify its event offerings, predict.fun launched a "Number of CZ's Tweets" event, increasing community discussion around the platform.

predict.fun launches "Number of CZ's Tweets" event

Probable: Liquidity Points Rewards Launched Starting February 2

Probable is a fully on-chain prediction market platform incubated by PancakeSwap (platform language supports switching to Simplified Chinese). The project is supported by both PancakeSwap and YZi Labs and will be exclusively deployed on BNB Chain.

Community users mock the platform for awarding points to wash traders. Currently, the platform still offers zero-fee trading (including market orders), allowing for lossless point farming, potentially attracting wash trading or "self-trading" users. Apart from the first event having extremely high volume (previously the event was whether the Fed would cut rates in February, now changed to whether Satoshi will move Bitcoin this year), other events have low volume and extremely poor liquidity.

Probable homepage screenshot

Notably, today (February 2), Probable officially announced that liquidity points rewards will be launched starting this week. Perhaps after launching liquidity points rewards, the platform's points will be distributed more to genuine traders. Odaily will continue to report on community feedback regarding point distribution.