Weekly Editor's Picks (1024-1030)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-10-31 09:21 (UTC+8)

This article is about 3791 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

High-quality in-depth analysis articles and a quick catch-up on the week's hot topics.

AI Summary

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Core Viewpoint: This week's picks focus on the impact of macro elections and regulatory maneuvers on the crypto market, while also revealing Bitcoin accumulation timing, the rise of the AI Agent on-chain economy, and new market risks such as spoofing orders.
Key Elements:
1. With the U.S. midterm elections countdown underway, if Democrats take both chambers, crypto-related stocks may come under pressure; if Republicans hold their ground, CLARITY and major coins could see a short-term surge.
2. Galaxy's letter to clients states that the bear market ended in June, Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, the 200-week moving average provides support, and it recommends buying and holding.
3. The SEC's innovation exemption establishes a legal pathway for tokenized U.S. stocks, with three TSV applicants emerging, but Nasdaq has explicitly refused to tokenize its stocks under this framework.
4. Binance Agentic Wallet's Agent ID claims have surpassed 100,000, BSC ecosystem launchpads are following suit, and the AI Agent on-chain economy boom is kicking off, though it comes with security risks such as phishing attacks.
5. The Hyperliquid spoofing order case yielded $110,000 in arbitrage over 3 days; the U.S. futures market has explicitly prohibited such misleading market behavior, and on-chain public records have become key to identification.
6. Arthur Hayes, after being bullish for a week, liquidated altcoins such as ETH, ENA, and UNI, citing a tricky macro and geopolitical environment and expecting the market to fall first and then rise.

The news feed moves too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily buried by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column pulls content with real judgment value out of the flood of information, helping you filter out the noise, keep the insights, and find inspiration.

Macro Landscape

One Week Until the Midterms: How Will Trump's Fate Affect Crypto and US Stocks?

Trump's approval rating holds between 30% and 40%; Democrats need just 3 seats in the House and a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate.

If Democrats take both chambers, crypto concept stocks and AI stocks may come under pressure and swing; if Republicans hold both chambers, CLARITY, major coins, and crypto concept stocks will all see a short-term sharp rally.

Brazil's Epic Election Upset: Prediction Markets Become an Insider Cash Machine

Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court confirmed Lula's reelection victory. After trailing in the first round, Lula overtook former President Jair Bolsonaro's son Flávio Bolsonaro by about 4.4 million votes, 51.79% to 48.21%.

Since Brazil restored direct presidential elections in 1989, the first-round leader has never lost in the second round.

Along with this election that broke historical patterns came not only Brazil's Ibovespa index, which fell 10% after the open and triggered a circuit breaker, but also numerous traders who bet on Lula's defeat in prediction markets.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Galaxy's Letter to Clients: Now Is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin

The bear market ended in June this year, and Bitcoin is currently in an "accumulation phase," a phase that has appeared before every previous rally.

From a technical standpoint, the 200-week moving average has provided effective support, and the 50-week moving average has been successfully reclaimed for five consecutive weeks; from a positioning standpoint, short-term selling pressure has largely faded, with basis traders and macro speculators having cut their ETF and futures positions by more than half; Bitcoin's fundamental logic is also becoming more solid, with the US facing a $2 trillion fiscal deficit and Treasury yields at 5%, increasing the likelihood of currency debasement; and the market narrative has turned for a third time toward "focus on blockchain rather than Bitcoin" (the previous two sentiment shifts both occurred at market bottoms).

Therefore, Galaxy believes now is a good time to buy and hold Bitcoin.

Unless the following occurs: the weekly closing price falls below the 50-week moving average ($76,540) and fails to reclaim it within a month; spot Bitcoin ETF holdings fall below the July 13 low of 1.22 million coins; a clear, time-bound path emerges pointing to the birth of a cryptographically capable quantum computer; or the US implements fiscal austerity.

Can Grok Bot Really Make Money Automatically? First Understand the Loss Traps of Three Types of Bots

The fatal weakness of the gambler-type bot is that it tends to keep increasing position size after profits; once a series of misjudgments follows, it can cause large losses; therefore, the position size for each trade must be determined as a fixed proportion of the account's current total capital, and must never be adjusted based on the result of the previous trade.

The fatal weakness of the market-maker-type bot is that once trading volume dries up, token issuance costs may exceed fee revenue; therefore it must not hold or sell tokens it issued itself, and revenue can only come from fees.

The fatal weakness of the tracking-type bot is copy-trading delay; even if it follows the right wallet, it may buy at the wrong price; a chase-high cap must be set.

The four most common mistakes when using trading bots: comparing only returns, not failure modes; trusting a single run result; letting the system run at its limits; and treating risk control as just a settings option.

Just a Week After Turning Bullish, Arthur Hayes Has Run Away Again

Arthur Hayes's previous bullish rhetoric on tokens like ENA and UNI often focused on "cash flow," "value capture," "quality DeFi infrastructure," and "high-beta assets"; now, when selling, he dismisses them all with a single "shitcoin."

His reason for turning bearish this time: the macro and geopolitical environment looks somewhat tricky, and the market may need to fall further before the next rally arrives.

Never mind what he says—go on-chain and see what his wallet is actually doing.

AI & Storage

Why Does Anthropic Desperately Need This IPO?

Private financing can no longer sustain this AI giant. Tapping the enormous liquidity of public markets is the best way to feed the next stage of this AI arms race.

An IPO is also the best way to subject this AI boom to the market's ultimate test.

Agents Trading and Earning Automatically: Is the On-Chain Economy Boom Coming?

Binance recently launched Agentic Wallet, and a series of on-chain ecosystem assets and launch platforms quickly followed around the project. The number of Agent IDs claimed based on Agentic Wallet has officially surpassed 100,000. A series of moves by launch platforms in the BSC ecosystem truly kicked off this boom.

Of course, the development of the AI Agent economy also comes with a series of security risks such as AI phishing attacks and AI risk assets. When users use AI Agents to participate in on-chain trading, they must set appropriate permission boundaries and asset limits to avoid asset losses as much as possible.

Prediction Markets

Tiger Research: Do Prediction Markets Really Have Practical Use?

Prediction markets are essentially high-value data sources, not merely venues for betting and gaming.

Real money at stake actually gives participants a genuine "skin in the game." Prediction market prices can provide highly time-sensitive dynamic data that changes in real time as events develop. Prediction outcomes are fully and objectively verifiable after the fact.

Prediction market data can be widely applied in fields such as elections, macroeconomics, public health, and corporate intelligence.

Going forward, the industry still needs to deepen its work in three dimensions: continue to improve mechanism design to reduce price distortions and root out market manipulation; conduct active and pragmatic government relations (GR) outreach to reshape regulators' fixed perceptions of prediction markets; and maintain a fully transparent data disclosure mechanism to cultivate a healthy independent third-party research ecosystem.

Policy and Stablecoins

Three Innovation Exemption TSVs Appear, and OKXICE Gets 22 "No" Votes First

The US SEC issued an innovation exemption order (Release No. 34-106402), valid for five years, formally establishing a legal channel for tokenized US stock trading.

Three companies have notified the SEC that they intend to operate TSVs under the innovation exemption: TSV LLC (filed September 23), OKXICE (filed October 4), and Kephas Corp. (filed October 14, operating under the name Perpetuals.com). The SEC also stated that inclusion on the list does not mean these three have met the exemption conditions.

The resistance they face does not come only from issuers; greater uncertainty comes from the traditional market side. Nasdaq has separately stated that it will not allow its stocks to be tokenized under this framework—TSVs neither display the best price in real time nor report trades to the consolidated tape.

CeFi & DeFi

Arbitraging $110,000 in 3 Days: Is the Hyperliquid Spoofing Case Unfair?

Someone placed a large crude oil sell order on Hyperliquid, appearing ready to dump, while continuously buying on the other side. Once the trades completed, those sell orders were withdrawn.

Spoofing refers to placing large orders to influence others while hiding the trade you actually want to make on the other side. For example, sell orders pressure the market while buy orders take the goods for yourself.

The US futures market has explicitly banned such behavior; the key legal focus is "placing an order with the intent to cancel it just before execution in order to mislead the market."

Sometimes the asset the manipulator actually wants to sell is not even in the same market. On weekends with poor liquidity, large players often use BTC spoofing to make BTC price rise slowly, thereby using algorithmic help to pump altcoins and help themselves exit.

CEXs have already placed such behavior under monitoring, and traders constantly discuss how to identify it. Hyperliquid has one difference from centralized trading platforms in this matter: orders, cancellations, and trades all have public records.

Aggregator Hooks Bring External Liquidity into v4: What Is Uniswap Up To?

Uniswap v4 captures fees generated by liquidity it does not own through aggregator Hooks, strengthening the UNI burn flywheel. This also means Uniswap is moving toward becoming an "on-chain liquidity gateway," shifting from providing liquidity to distributing liquidity.

However, whether Uniswap v4 aggregator Hooks can enhance UNI's value capture capability depends on whether it turns on the fee switch for external high-traffic pools.

Limited Downside, Capped Upside: BlackRock Wants to Attract "Old Money" with PBIT