Metrics Ventures Market Watch: Deep Adjustment in its Midpoint
Metrics Ventures November Market Watch Summary
- The market has experienced a rollercoaster ride over the past month, from the high spirits of early October to the chilling cold of November, highlighting some important shifts that are taking place. Bitcoin has now broken through a key uptrend support level, making short-term risk management more important than long-term medium-term outlook.
- This adjustment has the clear inability of government TGA accounts to make expenditures as the primary obstacle to liquidity. However, closer observation reveals that Bitcoin ETFs are not only experiencing continuous outflows but also a clear and sustained increase in volume. Expanding the scope to cryptocurrency stocks, MSTR's correction has lasted for a full four months since mid-July, smoothly breaking through all support levels. Although they performed exceptionally well in selling preferred shares, the weakness of the underlying stock means their ability to generate explosive short-term buying is very limited before further interest rate cuts. In essence, due to various factors such as high levels and fundamentals, the dollar system has entered a high-pressure state where it will continue to contract without any real increase in liquidity.
- Looking ahead, although gold, Japanese and South Korean stock indices, and the Latin American cycle all indicate the arrival of a global capital market boom; the continued unemployment of white-collar workers, the trend towards international political stability, and the roar of a global frenzied fiscal cycle are indeed happening rapidly, but considering the above phenomena, waiting for the next clear turning point is particularly important for net asset value management plans.
A review of the overall market situation and market trends
From a purely market perspective, the short-term risk signals we want to clearly identify include:
- MSTR continues to break below all key support levels;
- US-listed BTC ETFs are not only experiencing continuous outflows, but also seeing sustained high trading volumes at high levels;
- After weeks of sustained high trading volume, Bitcoin has clearly broken through a key upward support level.
- The rotation speed of overcrowded and concentrated high-level trading in the US stock market is accelerating.
From a macro perspective, the Fed's stance is no longer as crucial in the short term. The market has already priced in too many expectations through concentrated investment. A genuine acceleration of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion will be the clear starting point for the next round of market activity. Unemployment and the continued slowdown in traditional industries will ultimately translate into continuously printed liquidity within the electoral political system. However, whether another collapse of the capital markets is necessary before quantitative easing through balance sheet expansion remains uncertain.
Despite the ongoing consolidation over the past few months, the global liquidity charts reaffirm our view that Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive risk asset among dollar-denominated assets. Therefore, we remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance and potential. The timing and extent of this correction will be determined by the specific path of balance sheet expansion.
I hope you are all well, and that we will meet again when the bubble begins.
about Us
Metrics Ventures, also known as MVC, is a data and research-driven secondary market liquidity fund led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. This team possesses expertise in both primary market incubation and secondary market trading, and plays an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analytics. MVC collaborates with influential figures in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support to projects, including media and KOL resources, ecosystem collaboration resources, project strategy, and economic model consulting capabilities.
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- 核心观点：比特币短期风险加剧，需谨慎管理。
- 关键要素：
- 比特币跌破关键上升趋势支撑。
- 比特币ETF持续流出且放量。
- MSTR股票长期下跌削弱购买力。
- 市场影响：短期流动性收缩抑制加密货币上涨。
- 时效性标注：短期影响。
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