ICE, Parent Company of NYSE, Makes Major Moves with Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools

Original｜Odaily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser（@wenser 2010）

Yesterday, following the major news in January about "planning to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading", ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company behind the New York Stock Exchange, unleashed two more "big moves." First, it launched seven CoinDesk Index cryptocurrency futures contracts and also plans to launch a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract based on the CoinDesk Overnight Rate (pending approval). Second, it introduced the Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with market signals such as prediction market data and analysis. This series of actions indicates that ICE Group, the "parent" behind the NYSE, one of the largest U.S. stock exchanges, is building its own "new nine-child ecosystem."

At a time when traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency market are deeply intertwined, ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner into a trendsetter.

ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Providing More Options for the Securities Market

In a previous article, "NYSE Plans to Launch 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, Leaving 'Competitors' Stunned", we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to consolidate liquidity from both TradFi and DeFi markets, also listing the pros and cons of market views at that time.

In less than a month, ICE Group, the parent company behind the NYSE, is no longer silent. Instead, it has stepped from behind the scenes to the forefront, directly launching seven CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that better align with crypto-native metrics. These include: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures. The related contracts are USD-denominated and cash-settled.

It's worth mentioning here that CoinDesk Index-related crypto futures contracts offer the following advantages:

• 1. Historical Significance — CoinDesk Index metrics have been operational since 2014. Its flagship indices, such as the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX), have long been regarded as foundational industry benchmarks. BlackRock's BTC ETF products also reference them. Currently, over $40 billion in assets (e.g., ETFs, funds) are linked to these indices.
• 2. Broad Coverage — The CoinDesk 20 Index covers approximately 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using a market-cap-weighted and capped design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional-grade investment standards. The total market cap of related products exceeds $16 billion. The CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest components by market cap within the CoinDesk 20 Index, balancing index diversification with the market status of high-market-cap cryptocurrencies.
• 3. Pioneering Nature — ICE Group previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products. The transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance needs, helping ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the entry barrier for investment institutions.

Thus, ICE has introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market via CoinDesk indices, providing professional institutional investors with more trading options. This also indirectly brings more liquidity to the cryptocurrency market. With these seven USD-denominated, cash-settled CoinDesk index crypto futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify asset portfolio allocations.

The subsequent product ICE Group plans to promote, the "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk Overnight Rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.

It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move marks the first time a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi interest rates. This also signifies that the overnight borrowing annual percentage rate (APR) of on-chain lending protocols has gained recognition from traditional financial markets, facilitating investors in hedging USDC borrowing costs or locking in yields. Regardless of the product's price performance post-launch, this is a historic step. At a time when the crypto market is in a downturn, it injects a fresh wave of vitality.

If we compare the traditional financial market to a food market, the launch of CoinDesk index crypto futures contracts is like ICE Group, this "vegetable stall," offering customers more "dishes." The introduction of the Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool is akin to ICE Group providing "produce price impact indicators" to "shoppers" (Odaily Note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) to help them make effective decisions on "which produce to buy."

ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool: An "Information Gold Shovel" for Investors

Last September, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. At that time, the prediction market was on the eve of a trading volume explosion, with monthly industry volume still around $5 billion. However, with the overall crypto market downturn, successive prediction events, and strong capital institution enthusiasm, the entire prediction market track entered a surge period starting in Q4 last year — monthly trading volumes broke new highs consecutively, rapidly exceeding $13 billion in November, a more than fourfold year-on-year increase compared to the 2024 U.S. presidential election year period.

Since then, Polymarket, touted as "the world's largest prediction market platform," has seen a new wave of growth in its valuation, platform trading volume, and user numbers. Compared to traditional polls, data research institutions, and other channels, prediction markets offer more intuitive and collective wisdom-based information indicators, garnering increasing attention.

To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket serve as the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group recognized this decision-support value.

As Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated: "Prediction markets reflect near real-time collective expectations of market-moving events and have become a reliable information input beyond traditional data sources."

Similarly, let's illustrate its specific role with two simple examples.

First, betting events on Polymarket like "the timing and method of a U.S. attack on Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders, hedge funds, etc. If the likelihood of such an event suddenly increases and trading volume spikes rapidly, it often indicates regional tensions, and prices for oil and other energy sources are likely to surge. Institutional investors can use this to build positions for profit in advance, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risky assets.

Second, various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to judge the production, price trends of bulk agricultural products like corn and soybeans, and the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on prediction market platforms can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually impact supply chains/prices, avoiding asset damage from concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.

In other words, various betting events in prediction markets can identify abnormal factors one step ahead, thereby concretizing the potential impact on related assets.

It is worth noting that Polymarket's data is not the only source ICE Group provides to institutional investors; previous sources also included Reddit and Dow Jones data. Cross-verification from multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.

Leveraging this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group has essentially opened a "window of probability" for institutional investors to "see the future in advance."

Summary: ICE Group is Building Its Own "Crypto Territory"

Last September, the U.S. SEC's Crypto Special Task Force held meetings with the NYSE and ICE Group regarding cryptocurrency regulation, covering crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group had successively reached cooperation agreements with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration and on-chain data for forex and precious metals.

Based on available information, under the crypto-friendly regulatory environment fostered by the Trump administration, ICE Group is striding into the "crypto finance era," assembling its own "crypto territory" through investments, partnerships, and expanding tradable assets.