Don't Just Focus on Yi Lihua, These Whales' Moves During the Plunge Are More Worth Watching

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)

Blockchain claims another victim. Bitcoin has been exploring lower levels for consecutive days, plummeting over 15% at one point in the past 24 hours, swiftly sliding to $60,000. This marks a drop of more than 40% from its October 2025 high, setting a new phase low and potentially recording its largest single-day decline since the FTX incident in 2022. Altcoins have suffered even more severe damage, with blood flowing in the streets. (Related reading: Bitcoin Plunges Nearly 20% in a Single Day, How Long Has It Been Since You Saw $60k Bitcoin?)

Regarding the reasons behind this decline, the market largely attributes it to macro-level factors, such as the "Warsh effect" triggered by the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh taking office, AI capital race draining liquidity from other global assets, and escalating US-Iran tensions.

Beyond these, many unfounded speculations have emerged. Because this decline was excessively smooth, almost without pause, and lacked specific event catalysts, many voices speculate whether a major institution has imploded, suggesting a hidden black swan may surface soon. It's like watching a pile of explosives detonate without knowing who lit the fuse. According to Alternative.me data, today's Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone, further declining from the previous day's 12 and last week's 16. Last month, the index was still at 42.

"The peak breeds false followers, the twilight reveals true believers."

The more such "analysis fails" moments occur, the more we can discern investors' true intentions from their positions. As we fear the arrival of a deep bear market, which whales are selling in the market, and who is truly buying the dip on a large scale?

Who is Selling Value Coins?

Vitalik and Aave Founder Sell ETH to Cash Out

During the market decline in the early hours of February 6th, Aave founder Stani Kulechov (0x803...c78d) sold 4,504 ETH on-chain at a price of $1,855, exchanging it for 8.36 million USDC. ETH hit a low of $1,747 in the early hours of February 6th.

Aave Founder Sells ETH

Besides the Aave founder, Ethereum founder Vitalik has also been regularly selling ETH recently. On January 30th, Vitalik posted that he had withdrawn 16,384 ETH for a multi-year donation plan, focusing on supporting an open, verifiable, end-to-end software and hardware technology stack to protect personal life and the public environment.

On February 3rd, Vitalik began selling these ETH, selling 493 ETH that day worth approximately $1.16 million. As of February 6th, the sale progress of the 16,384 ETH planned for donation has reached 42.1%, with a cumulative sale of 6,899.5 ETH, totaling $14.15 million, at an average selling price of $2,052. However, Vitalik has deposited the remaining 9,484.5 ETH into Aave, which may indicate no plans to sell in the short term.

"ETH Super Bull" Yi Lihua Falls, Sells Approximately 250k ETH

Yi Lihua's Trend Research was one of the most watched ETH bulls this cycle, and he frequently publicly expressed bullish views on social media, leading to the community analogy "Tom Lee in the West, Yi Lihua in the East."

However, as ETH fell, Yi Lihua couldn't hold on either. On February 1st, according to monitoring, Yi Lihua's Trend Research began depositing over 10,000 ETH into Binance. On February 2nd, Yi Lihua admitted on X that he was indeed too early in being bullish on ETH, the profits from selling at the previous peak have been given back, and he decided to continue waiting for the market to rise while controlling risks.

On February 3rd, he posted again, stating he still believes in the new bull market performance, expecting ETH to reach over $10,000 and BTC to exceed $200,000, but he adjusted some positions recently to control risk.

These remarks may have paved the way for subsequent ETH transfers. As of now, the six addresses publicly disclosed by Trend Research hold only about 396k ETH. On February 1st, Trend Research publicly held 650k ETH, meaning they sold approximately 250k ETH, worth $554 million. Simultaneously, Yi Lihua's latest liquidation range is between $1,509 and $1,800.

But from a firm bull to being forced to "cut losses," Yi Lihua's heart is likely filled with helplessness.

Whales Dump 81,068 BTC in the Past 8 Days

Besides these public figures selling, hidden on-chain whales are also "fleeing." According to Santiment statistics, whales holding 10 to 10,000 BTC currently hold 68.04% of the total BTC supply, a 9-month low, having dumped 81,068 BTC in just the past 8 days.

After the market decline, whales also began to stop losses and deleverage. According to monitoring, during yesterday's market drop, a whale deposited 10,128 ETH, worth $20.44 million, to Galaxy and FalconX. A whale (0xfdd...6a92) holding an ETH lending position on Spark also began selling ETH to stop losses when the ETH price fell to $2,050. This whale cumulatively sold 27.8k ETH, repaying $44.14 million in loans.

However, unlike whales, retail investors tend to buy the dip at such times. According to Santiment statistics, "shrimp addresses" holding less than 0.01 BTC now hold 0.249% of the total BTC supply, a 20-month high, reflecting retail buying on dips. But caution is needed, as this combination of whale selling and retail buying has historically led to bear market cycles.

Who is Quietly Buying the Dip

Besides retail investors buying, some steadfast large holders/institutions are also buying the dip. Statistics show that after the market drop, Bitfinex margin long positions rose to approximately 77.1k BTC, a near two-year high. This trend indicates significant leveraged funds buying the dip during the decline. Furthermore, Bitfinex margin long positions have grown about 64% over the past six months, often seen as a signal of large holders or high-risk appetite funds continuously adding positions during market stress periods.

Famous trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio also posted on his personal channel, "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own."

"Machi" with Infinite Ammo for Longs

Iron-headed "Machi" is a representative large holder buying the dip and going long. According to monitoring, in the early hours of February 6th, during the market decline, Machi Big Brother persisted in going long, depositing 250k USDC into Hyperliquid to open a 25x leveraged ETH long, a 40x leveraged BTC long, a 10x leveraged HYPE long, and a 10x leveraged PUMP long. However, the BTC and PUMP longs were quickly liquidated in the subsequent market drop, while the HYPE and ETH longs were partially liquidated before adding more positions.

As of now, "Machi" still holds a 25x leveraged Ethereum long position of 320 ETH with a liquidation price of $1,841; he also holds a 10x leveraged HYPE long position of 14,720 HYPE with a liquidation price of around $31.

This week, Machi Big Brother closed 11 positions, with 3 profitable and 8 losing trades, a win rate of 27.27%, resulting in a net weekly loss of approximately $286k. The hyperbot chat screen is filled with encouraging messages for Machi.

BTC's Eternal "Backstop" Strategy: Cost Basis $76,052

Fortunately, during the market crash, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury, did not choose to sell. Strategy CEO Phong Le stated during Strategy's Q4 financial results webinar that Bitcoin would need to fall to $8,000 and stay at that level for five to six years to pose a real threat to repaying its convertible debt. This implies that only then might Strategy consider selling BTC, offering some reassurance to the market.

Simultaneously, during the market decline earlier this month, Strategy purchased another 855 BTC for approximately $75.3 million, at a unit price of about $87,974. As of now, Strategy holds a total of 713,502 BTC, with a total acquisition cost of approximately $54.26 billion and an average purchase price of about $76,052. Therefore, at the current Bitcoin price of $66,000, Strategy is sitting on an unrealized loss of over $7.168 billion.

Besides Strategy holding firm and buying, Japan's largest BTC treasury company, Metaplanet, also expressed faith in BTC on February 6th. Its CEO, Simon Gerovich, posted on X, "In response to recent stock price movements and the severe situation faced by shareholders, Metaplanet's strategy remains unchanged; the company will continue to accumulate BTC." However, data shows Metaplanet has not purchased BTC for three consecutive weeks.

ETH's Staunch Supporter Tom Lee: $6.6B Unrealized Loss is Just a "Minor Issue"

From a pure ETH holding perspective, Tom Lee is clearly more resilient than Yi Lihua. His ETH treasury company, Bitmine, not only did not sell ETH but also continued buying during the market decline.

In the last week of January, when ETH fell to a low of $2,200, Bitmine bought 41,788 ETH that week, worth $96.55 million. Subsequently, Tom Lee stated on February 2nd, "The company currently has no debt. Given Ethereum's strengthening fundamentals, the recent market pullback is highly attractive," essentially outlining his buy-the-dip strategy. On February 3rd, Bitmine purchased 20,000 ETH via FalconX, worth $46.04 million.

On February 4th, facing external claims that Bitmine's ETH holdings had an unrealized loss as high as $6.6 billion, Tom Lee responded that this is normal. But as of now, Bitmine holds a total of 4,285,125 ETH with an average cost basis above $3,500. With ETH falling below $2,000, Bitmine's unrealized loss exceeds $8 billion.

On-chain Whales Still Bullish on ETH

For on-chain whales, a declining market is also a rare buying opportunity. According to monitoring, a whale dormant for 7 months (3M4p1i) began buying the dip after BTC's sharp drop on February 6th. This whale bought 482 BTC, worth $32.5 million, and now holds a total of 1,960 BTC worth $128 million.

Compared to BTC, on-chain whales seem to favor ETH more. A newly created wallet withdrew 55,483 ETH from WhiteBIT in the past 2 days, worth $115.16 million.

From the evening of February 5th to February 6th, multiple on-chain whales/institutions also continuously bought ETH. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet linked to Longling Capital withdrew 8,500 ETH from Binance on the evening of February 5th, worth $17.51 million. The whale/institution "7 Siblings" added another 6,923.85 ETH, approximately $13.91 million, when ETH fell below $2,000 in the early hours, with an average cost of $2,009.8. Its current ETH holdings reached 318,508.07. Simultaneously, another whale account spent 28 million USDT to buy 13,837 ETH at an average price of $2,024, but this wallet is also suspected to belong to "7 Siblings."