The Israeli military is hunting for moles on Polymarket
- Core View: Israeli military personnel and civilians have been prosecuted for using classified military information to place bets and profit on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This incident confirms the existence of insider trading within prediction markets and raises concerns about the severe security risks such behavior could pose in sensitive areas like warfare.
- Key Elements:
- The Tel Aviv District Court in Israel has indicted a civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist, charging them with using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket, constituting a "serious security crime."
- The investigation was conducted jointly by multiple agencies, including the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet). The suspects' actions were deemed to have created serious operational security risks during wartime.
- The community discovered that an account named "Rundeep" maintained a 100% win rate across six predictions related to Israeli military operations, often placing bets when odds were low, and profited over $150,000.
- The account's only failed prediction was unrelated to Israel, involving U.S. military action against Iran, suggesting its informational advantage may be limited to specific domains.
- The incident highlights how permissionless prediction markets can become channels for monetizing insider information, especially in sensitive fields like warfare, where insider betting could have unpredictable real-world repercussions and security impacts.
Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The unfair competitive advantage brought by insider information has long been a controversial focus on prediction markets like Polymarket.
Previously, during the US military's operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds for related events on Polymarket showed abnormal movements in advance (see "When War is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Capture Operation 6 Days Early"). If that suspected insider behavior could still be explained away by fluctuations in the "Pizza Index," then this time, it can be said that there is a mole on Polymarket, and it has been thoroughly exposed.
Israeli Military Hunts for the "Mole"
On February 12, Israel's largest English-language newspaper, The Jerusalem Post, reported that the Tel Aviv District Court indicted an Israeli civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist on Monday, accusing the two of using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket for profit. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior posed a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement approved for release by the prosecution, the suspects were arrested in a joint operation by the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), the investigation unit under the Ministry of Defense's security agency, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reservists are exploiting their access to classified information through their military roles to bet on the timing of military operations and profit from it.
Following the investigation, the prosecution stated that it had obtained evidence of the civilian and the reservist's misconduct and therefore decided to indict both on charges of "serious security offenses," as well as bribery and obstruction of justice. Simultaneously, the prosecution requested the court to extend the suspects' detention until the conclusion of the trial.
Beyond the information already disclosed, further details of the case remain under legal restrictions, including the defendants' identities, the specific bets placed, and the alleged flow of information.
Tracing the Mole's Actions
Although we cannot learn the true identity or account information of this mole, the X community had already identified an account on Polymarket with clearly anomalous behavior. The Jerusalem Post also included a screenshot of this account's profits in its report.
As shown in the image above, this user named Rundeep joined Polymarket in June 2025 and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate in six prediction markets related to Israeli military actions. Notably, five of these bets were placed when the probability was below 50%, ultimately yielding profits exceeding $150,000.
It is worth mentioning that Odaily's investigation found that apart from this "six wins, zero losses" streak, Rundeep had only one recorded loss on Polymarket. However, this failed prediction was not directly related to Israel; it was about "whether the US military would take action against Iran before Saturday (June 21, 2025)"... It seems allied intelligence isn't entirely reliable.
The Real-World Repercussions of Prediction Markets: A Chilling Thought
Due to Polymarket's open, permissionless nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform. Objectively, this provides a more convenient channel for "information monetization" for groups with intelligence advantages. Driven by profit, those holding unequal informational advantages find it hard to resist the temptation, inevitably leading to moles trying to cash in.
If such incidents occurred in conventional fields like sports or entertainment, the impact might still be somewhat manageable. However, when they happen in sensitive areas like politics or even warfare, the potential terrifying consequences of similar insider betting events are truly hard to imagine.
Taking this article as an example, if opposing forces guessed the direction of an Israeli operation in advance through insider bets on Polymarket, could it have a massive impact on the subsequent evolution of events? While many might find it hard to sympathize with Israel, the reality is that such events could happen to any entity.
In traditional gambling, public affairs like political elections, legislative outcomes, and wars are typically subject to explicit restrictions. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory constraints in the future may involve a prolonged regulatory tug-of-war.
