Original author: Joel Khalili, Wired Magazine

Original translation by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Truth Social, a social media platform majority-owned by US President Donald Trump and his family, is launching a cryptocurrency-based gambling service that will directly compete with the popular Polymarket.

The new service, called "Truth Predict," will allow Truth Social users to predict the outcome of specific events using cryptocurrency as betting capital, covering areas such as sports competitions, political campaigns, and even economic changes. Truth Social is operated by the publicly traded Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

Typically, individual predictions are presented as binary questions, such as: "Will Taylor Swift release a new original song before October 2nd?" or "Will Barcelona win the Champions League?"

On the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, prediction markets entered the mainstream for the first time. Their supporters claim that these markets are a better alternative to traditional opinion polls and a more efficient "source of truth."

"With Truth Predict, we are democratizing information, enabling Americans to leverage collective wisdom to translate free speech into actionable, forward-looking judgments," said Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, in a statement.

Truth Predict is a product of a partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. Currently, the prediction market space is primarily dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which recently completed funding rounds at valuations in the billions of dollars.

The launch of Truth Predict coincides with Polymarket's plans to return to the U.S. market—after being forced to withdraw from the U.S. during Joe Biden's presidency. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused Polymarket of operating an unregistered derivatives trading market. Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC, with withdrawing from the U.S. market as one of the conditions of the settlement.

In November 2024, the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating at the time whether the platform violated the injunction in the settlement agreement by continuing to accept bets from U.S. residents (Coplan was not arrested or charged).

The situation changed after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Under the Trump administration, regulators have halted lawsuits against prominent cryptocurrency companies, and the Department of Justice has instructed prosecutors to turn a blind eye to certain cryptocurrency-related crimes.

In July of the same year, Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice had concluded its investigation into Polymarket without bringing any charges, clearing the way for the company to return to the U.S. market.

In an interview with Wired, Zach Hamilton, founder of cryptocurrency startup Sarcophagus, said, "If there's one key reason why (crypto prediction markets) have returned to the U.S., it's the Trump administration—to put it bluntly, Donald Trump himself."

In fact, even before Truth Predict was launched, the Trump family already held economic interests in the development of the US prediction market.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor; in August of the same year, Polymarket received investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, of which Trump Jr. was a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined Polymarket's advisory board.

Just as Polymarket sought to re-enter the U.S. market, the Trump family forged ties with the platform. This has drawn close scrutiny from critics who argue that the investment could constitute a conflict of interest. Critics claim the deal creates an opportunity for the Trump family to profit from policy changes driven by the Trump administration.

Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project (an organization dedicated to monitoring the conduct of elected officials), stated, "No one would say that in a capitalist country, the president's family cannot engage in normal capitalist activities. But Polymarket is in the midst of intense political controversy, so this investment reflects a significant conflict of interest—a conflict that could have been avoided."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded in a statement to Wired: "The president and his family have never been, and never will be, involved in a conflict of interest."

As of now, Polymarket, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), and 1789 Capital have not responded to requests for comment.

The launch of Truth Predict could also lead to direct competition between different branches of the Trump family's business empire.

Chris Perkins, managing partner at cryptocurrency venture capital firm CoinFund, said, "From a venture capital perspective, many of us are reluctant to invest in competing projects and try to avoid that situation—we try to find the 'category winner'."

In fact, companies associated with the Trump family have long been operating competing Bitcoin treasury companies; in June 2025, a controversy even broke out over "which company has the right to launch an 'official' Trump-branded crypto wallet".