Original author: Sleeping in the Rain (X: @0xSleepinRain)

1. Stablecoins

In my opinion, the main narrative over the next three to five years will likely be adoption, and the only crypto application that can quickly reach this level of adoption is stablecoins. Top applications like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun are still limited to native crypto adoption. Truly widespread adoption still has a long way to go.

In short, stablecoins will be the core metagame of the future Crypto market.

Breaking it down, the hype surrounding the stablecoin narrative boils down to two things: 1) saving money; 2) hyping up the token price of the stablecoin infrastructure.

1. Save money

Saving money is a low-risk, high-yield option, making it a popular option in the market. Recent projects like Spark, Plasma, and Zerobase are examples of this trend, with pre-TGE savings offering very high APYs.

The underlying logic is:

1. Project owners need to generate TVL data before the TGE and cooperate with exchange activities to boost token valuations in order to exit after the TGE.

2. Alternatively, the project owner may need to use economic incentives (usually tokens) to boost the circulation of their own stablecoins, ultimately achieving the goal of promoting stablecoin adoption.

Saving money is a direction I recommend, but as the market develops, subsequent stablecoin deposits will likely become more and more volatile, with lower returns. It is best to deposit money in projects that have partnerships with major exchanges.

2. Stablecoin infrastructure token price speculation

In my opinion, participating in the price manipulation of these tokens is extremely risky, and we're not currently at a stage where they can generate positive EV. The main reason for this is the same as I mentioned in my first article: "Hype is driven by demand (even if that demand is spurious or unsustainable) or Ponzi schemes (high returns and high capital efficiency, driven by greed)" and "Demand and Ponzi schemes interact, each subject to cycles."

Currently, token speculation in this sector is primarily focused on backing from established investors, investment institutions, and exchanges. This means saving money is the optimal solution, not purchasing tokens. It's best to wait until demand emerges, or when Ponzi schemes emerge, before considering token speculation.

2. Super Apps and Repurchase

The term "super app" refers to the two apps mentioned above, Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. The core of the hype surrounding these super apps is "buybacks."

Super apps mean that they have achieved very good PMF (Product-market fit) in the market, which means that these super apps can capture continuous fee cash flow income in the medium and long term.

Using product fees to "buy back" can provide sufficient buying liquidity during a product's growth phase, driving up the token's value. A rising token value is the product's best advertising, effectively creating an invisible flywheel.

Secondly, repurchase can balance the different positions represented by token holders and product users, bind product users to the token car, increase the stickiness of token holders, reduce speculative behavior, and increase investment behavior.

It's also worth noting that Pump.fun is shifting from a Launchpad and DEX narrative to a livestreaming, or streaming, narrative. I believe @TimDraper's comments signal a reversal in the $PUMP trend (along with Alon's involvement in ICM). If the crypto market recovers in the near future, $PUMP's price performance will be worth anticipating.

As for $HYPE, I think it will take some time for the unlocking event to be over before it can recover, but I am optimistic about it in the long term.

3. ICO & ICM

There is not much difference between ICO and ICM in essence at this stage.

ICO is a simple and crude way of raising funds, while ICM (Internet Capital Market) tells a big story to package the act of "raising funds".

Why is it necessary to create a bigger story? Because a bigger, better story can attract more participants and create a bigger bubble. The better the narrative, the more leeks you can reap.

This is the story Solana is currently trying to tell. This is also being done in conjunction with the launch of the $SOL ETF – there has to be a reason for Tradefi to buy $SOL, right?

Based on ICM’s narrative, I am not optimistic about Launchcoin. Those who keep it will keep it.

@MetaDAOProject is a better bet. It has frequent interactions with Solana officials, a strong background, and the market is willing to pay for its projects (primarily because they can make money). Another reason to be optimistic is that $META isn't listed on a CEX yet.

Overall, the Solana ecosystem is in a recovery phase. The foundation has already laid out all the necessary plans, and the time is approaching for a major push. This time will likely be around the launch of the ETF.

The short-term forecast is roughly like this (as long as there are no major changes in the market in the short term), and the medium and long-term development will depend on the overall market trend.

IV. Prediction Markets and Robotic Narratives (Transmission of Web2 Narratives)

Prediction markets and bots aren't native to the crypto market; the market is simply hyping them up, following the narratives of the Web2 world. I won't elaborate here, but many have already hyped these two narratives to the skies. I'm personally bullish on prediction markets, but I'm not optimistic about their long-term hype. As for the bot narrative, I find it just average.

Prediction market hype is still dominated by VCs, and it's unlikely to see a Ponzi-style game. Therefore, I believe the market excitement will only last for a short while. Prediction markets like Limitless and BSC are worth participating in, but they're not suitable for long-term growth. Prediction market hype will likely be concentrated in Q4. Polymarket's coin offering/IPO will trigger another wave of hype.

Crypto itself excels at asset speculation, not robot creation. There are only two approaches to robot narratives:

1. Projects that provide training assistance (data, computing power) to Web2 robotics companies, such as $SAPIEN and @gaib_ai;

2. Projects that provide software services for robots, such as @openmind_agi. Both of these categories are worth discussing briefly and exploring opportunities during the TGE.

The hype generated by the Web2 narrative is generally short-lived (referring to the overall market explosion), and the excitement fades (a month?). Crypto-native Ponzi/asset issuance narratives, on the other hand, can last much longer.

The fact that narratives like prediction markets and bots are being repeatedly promoted and espoused on Crypto Twitter suggests that, after $TRUMP, the crypto market has yet to develop a compelling new narrative that warrants significant hype. The market is desperate for new narratives and hype about new assets.

5. Artificial Narratives

Artificial narratives are similar to the BSC meme hype. They have a high wealth effect, but are extremely uncertain and risky. Market dynamics are very fast, making them very suitable for young P players to enter the market and perform.

I personally prefer native memes that aren't tied to specific individuals and embody the spirit of the internet, like Hakimi. Memecoins tied to specific individuals will inevitably be the first to gain traction, as market attention is focused on them. Over time, however, market attention will gradually fade away from these specific memecoins, shifting to memes with a broader audience.

I actually think Perp DEX is a semi-constructed narrative. From my observation, the timing of the rise of Lighter and other Perp DEX fomos coincides with the rise of Aster. Since Hyperliquid's inception, PerpDEX has gradually gained attention, Aster's rise, and then a multitude of schools of thought have emerged, with the ultimate outcome likely to be the overthrow of all schools of thought and the prestige of Confucianism. Hype aside, don't put your faith in some PerpDEX knockoff. Personally, I think Hyperliquid still has a chance of emerging as the ultimate winner.

The development of artificial narratives tests people. If people are strong, the narrative will be strong, as seen with Bitcoin Cash (BSC). $ZEC's rise also relied on @naval's statement, "Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin" (and the willingness of CX, the company behind it, and BTC Maxis to buy it).

For this kind of narrative, first, you have to start early enough, and second, you have to have enough PVP to have a chance to gain substantial profits.

That’s about it, GN.

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