Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market, has released a guide to the market observations in May
1/ Following our April views, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets have bottomed out as expected this month, and Bitcoin has become the best performing US dollar asset after the recovery from the liquidity crisis for the first time in many years, which is gratifying. As of the date of this months report, the actual operating price center of Bitcoin has broken through the consolidation range of March.
2/ Looking at the whole month, after the huge turnover in the past 3 months, Bitcoin has actually entered a state of supply exhaustion, and the turnover of long and short interweaving has always been moderate. From the perspective of market sentiment, a large number of market traders are shorting the market and altcoins, which is also in line with the peak judgment made by a large number of old coin circle people based on basic chip theory and trading habits such as emotions.
3/There is no need to say much about altcoins. Although some newly listed tokens and the old and powerful altcoins represented by SUI have tried to increase prices, the overall performance is still unsatisfactory. Before the arrival of new liquidity and emotional climax, it is hard to say whether the money-making effect will return again. We are also seeing that more and more crypto-related assets choose to embrace SPAC, listing and other liquidity acquisition channels in trading venues such as Nasdaq. It is foreseeable that the capital flow path in the next round of liquidity cycle has quietly changed, and the existing old altcoins are facing more severe challenges.
Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trends
This months market is very important. In the process of volatility convergence after large fluctuations, the strength and weakness of assets often represent trend changes, and the strength of Bitcoin has exceeded the expectations of many participants. However, we believe that this period of time has precisely explained several very important things: 1/ Bitcoin still has no concentrated selling pressure problem. Currently, most of the clearing is the old currency circle and the floating chips for trading. Therefore, the end of the cycle should be based on the exhaustion and inflection point of liquidity, which runs counter to the actual trend of global liquidity at present;
2/MicroStrategys first quarter report in 2025 showed a miracle in the history of capital. We think this is something that the market does not understand. To put it simply, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025 through direct additional issuance, issuance of tradeable bonds, convertible bonds and other methods, which is higher than $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the same period, MicroStrategy became one of the strongest dollar risk assets when the U.S. stock market fell sharply, and its transaction volume has long been in the top ten of U.S. stocks, which is astonishing. What is even more amazing is that, judging from the results, this is a stock that the entire market welcomes to reduce holdings and increase issuance, which can be called a miracle in the history of human capital. The market significantly underestimates MicroStrategys actual financing and purchasing power, and the existing arrogance and prejudice will bring greater emotional reversal possibilities in the future;
3/If we believed that the pricing power was just being transferred in 2024, at this moment, we can conclude that the handover of pricing power has been completed, most of the so-called old cryptocurrency analysis frameworks will be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, US dollar cycles, and asset operation laws will be more rewarded by the market. The liquidity circulation path of the cryptocurrency circle will also confirm the above conclusions in the next round of high sentiment.
In general, we are very optimistic about the future trend of BTC. On the one hand, this is based on the inevitability of an increase in the slope of liquidity growth, and on the other hand, it comes from the divergence between the actual trend and the understanding of market participants.
Speaking of copycats, we also believe that the current new copycat operation model linked to the U.S. stock market will be the highlight of the next round of sentiment overflow cycle, and deserves the attention of all peers.
Finally, lets briefly talk about our views on RMB assets. The RMBs gorgeous turn from the fundamental level will slowly let the world know, just like the J-10 CE shines in the India-Pakistan conflict, which will also gradually set off the RMB assets to a new upward channel, with the bottom constantly raised. The price here deviates from the fundamentals due to the inertia of long-term bearishness, which is exactly the best layout range. Global easing is imminent, and the high-profile financial voice that just ended is an important signal. Dont get lost in the chaotic American series. The global central banks have actually made their choices.
To some extent, BTC in the eyes of crypto industry professionals is just like A-shares in the eyes of the Chinese people. What we want to say is exactly the same. We use a poem as our summary of the past market trends of the two major MVC heavy-weight industries and our outlook for the future:
Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, and purple, who is holding the colorful streamers dancing in the sky? After the rain, the setting sun returns, and the mountains and passes are green. In those days, the fierce battles left holes in the village walls. Decorating this mountain and pass, it looks even better today.
about Us
Metrics Ventures is a data and research driven crypto asset secondary market liquidity fund led by an experienced team of crypto professionals. The team has expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, and plays an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC works with senior influencers in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, economic model consulting capabilities, etc.
Everyone is welcome to DM to share and discuss insights and ideas about the market and investment of crypto assets.
Our research content will be published simultaneously on Twitter and Notion, welcome to follow:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetricsVentures
Notion: https://www.notion.so/metricsventures/Metrics-Ventures-475803b4407946b1ae6e0eeaa8708fa2?pvs=4
Hiring! We are looking for traders with good salary and flexible working location.
If you: have bought sol below 40/ ordi below 25/ inj below 14/ rndr below 3.2/ tia below 10 and meet any two of the above, please contact us at admin@metrics.ventures, ops@metrics.ventures
