Yesterday (22 APR), risk sentiment in the US stock market rebounded slightly, and the SP 500 ended its six-day losing streak. The market got a chance to breathe before the PCE index on Friday, the busy earnings week and the upcoming FOMC meeting. On the other hand, the recent poor inflation data delayed the market's expectations of the Fed's shift to an easing policy. The US Treasury yields are still fluctuating at a high level, and it also forced global investors to reconsider their expected global easing cycle. Some investors began to doubt the ECB's determination to cut interest rates. The money market no longer fully digested the expectation that the ECB will cut interest rates three times by December. Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in a report that "relative to the previous more aggressive rate cut path, the inflation caused by the exchange rate gives us reason to worry about the ECB's rate cut action."

Source: TradingView, SP 500

The gold price premium brought about by geopolitical conflicts gradually faded from the market, and spot gold recorded its biggest single-day drop in two years and continued its decline today.

Source: TradingView, XAUUSD

In terms of digital currencies, ETFs maintained positive inflows, with FBTC inflows exceeding its big brother IBTC for three consecutive days, and GBTC outflows also shrinking. In addition, according to Artemix, a facial data analysis company, net inflows of stablecoins have continued for 15/16 weeks since 2024, and last week's net inflow of stablecoins reached US$3.4 billion, the third highest level in 2024.

Source: Farside Investors; Twitter

In the past day, the price of BTC broke through 66000 to 67000 and then pulled back to around 66000.

In terms of options, the implied volatility has clearly gone down steeply. On the BTC block, there were two sets of Iron Condor transactions in opposite directions, buying Vol at the end of April and selling Vol at the end of May. In addition, it was noted that BTC call options at the end of June were sold in large quantities, mainly affected by two triangular spreads on the block platform. While selling 28 JUN 75000 & 80000 Call, 27 DEC 80000-C and 27 SEP 90000-C were bought respectively, which may include the uncertainty brought about by the US election.

Transactions on ETH are relatively concentrated. Large investors bought a large amount of 3,100 Puts at the end of April to protect the upcoming monthly settlement. Retail investors took advantage of the fact that IV had not completely fallen back and sold OTM Puts on May 3rd and 31st to earn premiums.

Source: Deribit (as of 23 A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution, Calls were heavily sold at the end of June

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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