Arthur Hayes' latest podcast: He got the script for next year and has already fired 90% of the shots.

Azuma

Odaily资深作者

@azuma_eth

2025-12-20 02:13

This article is about 6473 words, reading the full article takes about 10 minutes

"I lost a fortune this year by blindly chasing garbage memes. Next year I'm going to turn over a new leaf!"

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核心观点：美联储将变相宽松，推动市场上涨。
关键要素：
1. 美联储将推出名为RMP的变相QE。
2. 当局需维持股市与AI泡沫，依赖宽松政策。
3. 市场初期会怀疑，但最终将确认宽松本质。
市场影响：利好风险资产，比特币等将受益。
时效性标注：中期影响

This article is from: Kyle Crypto Hunt

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina ); Translated by Azuma ( @azuma_eth )

Editor's Note: Arthur Hayes, the market prediction guru, industry legend, and co-founder of BitMEX, is at it again, offering his predictions on market trends. In today's updated episode of the Kyle Crypto Hunt podcast, Hayes provides his insights on macro liquidity changes, future market direction, his personal positions, and trading strategies.

The following is the full text of the discussion on Arthur Hayes' podcast, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily. Some content has been abridged for better readability.

Opening remarks

Everyone is eagerly awaiting the Fed's "magic bullet," as if the moment those words are uttered, everyone's positions will take off—"Quantitative easing (QE) is here." But if you're still waiting for the Fed to announce it directly as it has in the past, you're like watching a foreign film without subtitles.

Today's guest is Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX. Before entering the cryptocurrency field, he worked in trading at Citigroup and Deutsche Bank, and is an expert in macro analysis. You'd better watch this episode with a magnifying glass and take notes, because he says, "The headline you're expecting will never appear."

Part 1: The Latest Developments – Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates

Host (Kyle Chasse): Arthur, it's great to have you on the show. Before we officially begin, the most recent macroeconomic event is the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy decision. By the time viewers watch this episode, the decision should have already been announced (Odaily note: a 25 basis point rate hike has been confirmed). Do you think the rate hike will actually happen? If it does, what will it mean for the market?

Arthur Hayes: Yes, after Kazuo Ueda (Note: Bank of Japan Governor) spoke a few weeks ago, he essentially made it clear that a rate hike was "within the discussion," and the market's probability of a rate hike quickly rose afterward.

Based on what I've learned from people more familiar with the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY exchange rate is between 155 and 160, which is the Bank of Japan's "red line." Therefore, they will definitely take necessary measures—either raise interest rates or tacitly allow some form of foreign exchange intervention—to prevent the yen from depreciating further and breaking through 160.

I believe this rate hike will likely only be an adjustment from 0.5% to 0.25% (Odaily note: the final result is completely consistent with Arthur's prediction). With official inflation at around 3%, this has almost no real significance at the macro level. It might make the market slightly tighter in the short term, but it won't change the fundamental trend.

Part 2: World Focus – The Federal Reserve Successor

Host (Kyle Chasse): The most pressing question right now is who will succeed as Federal Reserve Chairman. They all lean towards lowering interest rates, but their paths are completely different. Do you think that if Kevin Warsh takes over, it will pose some kind of threat to the environment for risk assets?

Arthur Hayes: I always say one thing— the US president will eventually get the monetary policy he wants.

If you look back at the history of the Federal Reserve since its founding in 1913, the power struggle between presidents and Fed chairmen has never been new. This struggle has always been open, intense, and even ugly; Lyndon Johnson once physically assaulted then-Federal Reserve Chairman William Martin on his Texas ranch in an attempt to force him to lower interest rates… So now, people think Trump's harsh attitude towards Powell is nothing compared to this.

The key isn't what that person "believed" before becoming president, but that once he's in that position, he'll understand—he's there to work for Trump. Trump wants lower interest rates, a larger money supply, and hotter markets, all while solemnly denying any connection to inflation; otherwise, he and the Republicans will be out of the running in the next election.

So it doesn't matter who's in charge; the result will be the same. They'll use whatever tools are necessary to accomplish the task, depending on the situation. Who ultimately sits in that position doesn't matter, and I don't care.

Part 3: The lifeline of the stock market – Can the AI bubble last?

Host (Kyle Chasse): So what's your take on the game between inflation and liquidity? If we start printing money on a massive scale as Kevin Hassett predicted, the liquidity environment would obviously be very favorable, but usually the more money is printed, the higher the inflation will be, and ordinary retail investors will still be under pressure as a result.

Arthur Hayes: In my view, the “rules of the game” for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are actually quite simple— the U.S. economy is essentially a highly financialized economy, and the stock market is the U.S. economy itself.

Therefore, ultimately, the authorities must do everything in their power to ensure the stock market rises, and this also means the AI wave must continue. I know some people are already questioning the AI bubble, saying there has been a correction, but I think they are completely wrong. If you are a stock investor, you should be bullish and accept some volatility. It would be very rash to short the Nasdaq or companies like Nvidia now, because this bubble is far from bursting, and the authorities need it to continue.

Trump has staked the entire US economy on the success of AI. And for AI to succeed, the only way is through more debt, lower funding costs, and a larger money supply. He will continue doing this until it becomes unsustainable.

The problem is that this will lead to inflation. So how can politicians convincingly tell voters that "these policies will not cause inflation"? The answer is to change the name. Everyone knows that quantitative easing (QE) = printing money = inflation. So the term QE can no longer be used and will never be used again, because ordinary people on the street know that it means inflation, and people hate inflation, which will lead them to support the Democratic Party in the next election.

Part 4: The New Look of QE

Host (Kyle Chasse): You're right, policies like quantitative easing are just constantly changing names. Looking back, you'll find it's still easing, just looking different at the time. So what should we call this one?

Arthur Hayes: The new name is "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP).

When this term first appeared, I spent a considerable amount of money consulting macroeconomic researchers. I asked them, "Does this count as QE?" Most technical money market experts said no, strictly speaking, it's not QE. I also asked some bond trader friends, and they also said it wasn't QE, but something else. But when you ask some more cynical macro analysts like myself, we'll say:

Technically not, but in essence—it will achieve the same effect.

The current market sentiment (represented by Bitcoin, as it is most sensitive to dollar liquidity) is that this is not QE, but I think the market hasn't truly grasped what it is yet. Looking back at 2008–2009, when Ben Shalom Bernanke introduced the US version of QE, the market initially didn't believe it at all. The S&P 500 continued to fall until it truly bottomed out in March 2009.

At the time, Bernanke kept emphasizing that this was only a "temporary expansion of the balance sheet" and that it would eventually be withdrawn. However, round after round of QE followed, not truly ending until 2021, which was precisely when the market peaked and experienced a significant correction. So the key point is that the market initially didn't believe QE was simply printing money, only realizing later: "Oh, this is printing money, let's go!"

Today's RMP is undergoing the same process. The Fed is buying short-term Treasury bills (T-bills), not MBS or 10-year Treasury bonds. From a duration perspective, the impact of T-bills is indeed smaller, and if you assume the banking system is the primary channel affected by the program, then the RMP is indeed not QE, but that's not the case. The Fed is doing this to induce money market funds to provide more lending in the repo market, which directly funds the US Treasury. So this is a way for the Fed to directly use money market funds and the repo market as intermediaries to finance the US Treasury at the short end of the Treasury curve.

As time goes on, we will see that the deficit does not decrease, the issuance of short-term Treasury bills continues to rise, and the use of the repurchase market increases. At that point, asset prices will bottom out and rebound, and the market will realize: "This is actually QE."

Part 5: When will the market bottom out?

Host (Kyle Chasse): What do you think the timeline will be when the market realizes this? You mentioned that asset prices may bottom out during this period, when exactly?

Arthur Hayes: I think that starting in January next year, the price performance of assets will improve significantly; but around March, the market will start to worry about whether this "temporary project" will end, and then there will be a round of turmoil; then they will confirm that RMP will continue, and then the market will restart.

Part 6: Arthur Hayes's Personal Operations

Host (Kyle Chasse): How are you operating now? What is your current personal strategy? Are you leaning towards risk aversion or risk-taking?

Arthur Hayes: We've probably used up 90% of our ammunition, with a little cash left to deal with volatility. Maelstrom (Note: Arthur's family investment office) doesn't use leverage, so we're not worried about Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in the short term.

What we're more concerned about now is what will be the next dominant altcoin narrative? Leaving Bitcoin aside, our most successful altcoin position in this round is Ethena (ENA). We entered very early because we were the project's fundraising advisor.

I think the next wave will be in privacy and Zcash-related areas. We currently have a significant exposure to Zcash (ZEC), but I believe some projects in this space will truly take off and could become the best-performing altcoins in the next two to three years. I think 2026 will be the time to find those projects; we don't know what they will be yet, but our job as investors is to look for opportunities.

Part 7: The Value and Risks of the Privacy Narrative

Host (Kyle Chasse): To be honest, it’s really annoying to expose all transactions on the blockchain so that everyone can see them, right?

Arthur Hayes: What people don't understand is that they only see what I want them to see. If I want you to see it, you will see it; if I don't want you to see it, you will never see it.

So when you see those "wallet tracking tools" on X or other social media platforms, be skeptical of everything you see. That doesn't necessarily mean what's actually happening.

But in my view, the core value of the privacy narrative for Zcash and other ZK projects lies in this: if I really need to ensure that no government, no rival companies, and no one is monitoring what I'm doing, do I actually have the tools to do so now? Clearly, this embodies a fear, and what you're trying to do is exploit that fear. Even if, three years later, it turns out that the hottest "altcoin" of 2026 is a complete mess, it doesn't matter; you can still make a lot of money before then.

Host (Kyle Chasse): Do you think it's possible—I know it's impossible to completely shut it down or ban it outright—but if the government really tried to tell people "using this stuff is illegal," it would definitely scare a lot of people away, right?

Arthur Hayes: I think governments have become much smarter in this information age. If you tell people “you can’t do something”, but you don’t have the means to actually enforce the ban, people will not only continue to do it, they will want to do it even more.

Therefore, instead of outright banning it, the government has chosen to restrict intermediary services, such as limiting exchanges from listing privacy coins. When I was truly "brainwashed" by Zcash, I first bought some on my phone, and then contacted eight brokers I knew, asking them to quote me a price for a transaction worth several million dollars. Only two were willing to quote, while the other six were banned from trading privacy coins by regulatory agencies.

Most exchanges don't currently allow trading Zcash or other privacy coins at all. This is how governments prevent you from holding them. They don't ban them outright, but rather make it extremely difficult for you to obtain them.

Part 8: What if the prediction goes wrong?

Host (Kyle Chasse): Based on your previous explanation, you are generally bullish on 2026. Are there any key indicators, charts, or events that could overturn this judgment and make you very bearish on 2026–2027?

Arthur Hayes: Some people might say that Bitcoin's pullback from 125,000 to 80,000 is just the beginning, and it may fall even lower. They might argue that, "Arthur, you keep saying that money is going to be printed, but Bitcoin is still falling. Obviously, the market doesn't believe what you're saying."

My answer to that is: "You're absolutely right."

I'm talking about a future scenario. I'm saying the market is currently digesting a new term, "money printing," at least in the US. But perceptions change, and that's the risk I'm taking with this judgment. The market will prove me wrong; if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but I've staked real money on this prediction. We'll witness the outcome together.

Part 9: Will the knock-off season come again?

Host (Kyle Chasse): Will we see another knock-off season in the next year or two?

Arthur Hayes: I think people have a serious selective memory of the "knock-off season," which is full of assumptions like "if only," "if only I had known," and "if only I had done it this way."

You want a knock-off season? Think back to 2016-2017. Back then, basically some guy would post a ridiculous PDF online and send you an address asking for money. Did you send it? Most people wouldn't, but a lot of people did, and made a fortune. Now think about the NFT craze of 2020-2021. Everyone was trading hideous apes and penguins on the blockchain, but you were taught from a young age that Rembrandt, Picasso, and other European masters were the pinnacle of art. Did you frantically trade NFTs back then? Many people didn't either.

So don't talk to me about the "copycat season." You didn't dare take risks in 2017, you didn't dare in 2020, and you still wo n't dare with Hyperliquid in 2024-2025. The copycat season has always been there; you're just too cowardly to participate. What you want is that familiar copycat season because only then do you feel like you know what to do. But cycles only refresh; what rises is always something new. Either you adjust your cognitive framework, or you live in the past forever and complain that the copycat season doesn't exist, but that's only because you didn't buy the one that rose.

Part 10: The Big Opportunity in Arthur Hayes' Eyes

Host (Kyle Chasse): Is there anything you're really excited about right now, but haven't talked about publicly yet? Not the well-known blue chips, but something a bit higher on the risk curve.

Arthur Hayes: I might write an article about this around the New Year. Maelstrom has a bunch of investment professionals, and I also have my own directional trading account where I can trade whatever I want.

I reviewed my trading this year, and while the overall result was profitable, if you look at the statistics, you'll find that only about one-fifth of the trades were profitable; I lost money on the vast majority of them. I threw a lot of money into some of the worst garbage coins or meme coins, but I shouldn't have touched that garbage at all. I just thought it was "fun" at the time, but that's not my style, and I shouldn't have messed around with that crap.

The coins that made me the most money were Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Ethena (ENA). Just catch those big fluctuations. Fortunately, we have enough capital to place heavy bets on those coins.

One of my favorite trades is ENA – you can check the on-chain records I've allowed you to see. I believe ENA is in the early stages of a huge uptrend because it's an interest rate game. As the Fed lowers short-term rates, if the RMP narrative is correct, then Bitcoin will rise, and people will want to leverage it, willing to pay higher basiss, and Ethena is the tool to capture that on-chain. Currently, we're seeing massive redemptions on USDe, but I think this trend will reverse, like in September 2024, and we'll see ENA experience a very rapid rise. Among our blue-chip holdings, this is probably one of my most confident trades, and it aligns with my overall macro-monetary argument.

Part 11: Some Quick Q&As

Host (Kyle Chasse): Now for a quick Q&A session. By the end of 2026, will Bitcoin go higher, lower, or flat? What will its approximate price be?

Arthur Hayes: Higher. I previously said $250,000 by 2025, which is obviously unlikely to happen. I will repeat the same goal: reaching $250,000 by 2026.

Host (Kyle Chasse): Tell me about a deal that everyone likes but you think is a trap.

Arthur Hayes: Shorting Nvidia.

Host (Kyle Chasse): What is the most dangerous macro narrative in the cryptocurrency space right now?

Arthur Hayes: The central bank will tighten monetary policy.

Host (Kyle Chasse): What is the best signal for a return to liquidity?

Arthur Hayes: This requires digging deep into central bank balance sheets and the banking system. The signals will never be straightforward because they want to mislead you.