1. Fundamental analysis
1. Basic situation
xPET is a pet-raising game based on an extension program embedded in Twitter. Pets can be accompanied by Twitter, farm, adventure, PVE and other activities, and ultimately generate token income. Upgrading pets through token consumption can expand related income.
Source: xPET official website
The xPET game adopts a dual-token model, namely XPET and BPET. Since the addition of liquidity, the two tokens have experienced a maximum increase of more than 30 times and 10 times respectively within a month, taking over the last 23 years of hype.
Source: Dexscreener-XPET
2. Core mechanism-Farm
After you have your own pet, the core mechanism of the project is to use the pet for farming. All level 7 pets will automatically participate in the farm to produce berries (the higher the level of the pet, the faster the berries are generated). When the pet reaches level 10, the factory can be opened, and the factory will convert berries into BPET (the higher the level of the factory, the faster the berries are generated). , the faster the conversion speed of berry-BPET), the BPET in the farm can be collected in the wallet every 10 minutes. After receiving it, if all the previously invested BPET is recovered and the pet is at a new level, a cycle will end.
If you continue to use newly claimed BPET to further upgrade your pet, a new cycle will be started, and the above repeated cycle of farming works like a flywheel.
Source: xPET official
Since the level of pets is positively related to berry output, and the level of factories is positively related to the efficiency of berry-BPET, users will upgrade pets and factories in order to obtain higher farm returns.
3. New gameplay is online-PVE
When pets reach level 10 and above, they can participate in adventures, which are divided into three levels.
Adventure Level: Pets level 10 – 29 are eligible
Adventure Level 2: Pets above level 30 are eligible to participate
Adventure Level 3: Only available during special events. (May be open to everyone or restricted to those who meet certain criteria, depending on each event)
The rewards for adventure are BPET, food and xEGG fragments that are dropped with probability (the fragments can be combined to create 1-5 star NFTs). The reward amount for BPET comes from 10% of the total revenue generated from purchases, pet upgrades, and factory upgrades in the game store the previous day. This 10% BPET will be divided evenly among the adventure tiers based on the proportion of players in each tier.
Because the higher the level of the pet, the more BPET rewards will be obtained in the adventure, which will also encourage players to upgrade their pets to obtain additional rewards in addition to the farm.
Source: xPET
4. Other mechanisms
There are some other components around the main mechanics to enrich the gameplay, acquisition and consumption of tokens. For example, you can get food to maintain pet health by commenting on xpet on Twitter; you can get more berries through the invitation code recommendation mechanism. , the market can directly purchase pets of higher levels and different images, etc.
2. Token Economics
The game adopts a dual-token mechanism. At the beginning of the games release, the two tokens can be consumed together for in-game upgrades. Currently, in-game upgrades can only use BPET, and the specific use of XPET is unclear. The design of the entire token economics is still in the early stages, and version 2.0 is being updated. There will be changes and adjustments in the future (including settings such as the output parameters in the game may also change).
1. BPET-game token
According to observations, BPET should be issued infinitely based on the output data of users in the game. The consumption of BPET will be divided into four parts, 10% will be given to adventure rewards; 1% will be given to the project team; 5% will be rewarded for XPET pledge; and 84% will be destroyed. BPET will dynamically move toward inflation or deflation based on the users daily output and consumption.
BPET tokens can be obtained by purchasing them on DEX or waiting for the in-game Farm to be produced.
2. XPET-Utility Token
The total supply of XPET is 300 million, attributable to 40% ecological fund; 15% marketing; 30% community; 5% liquidity; 5% team; 5% reserved. The future is positioned for social use, and there is currently a lack of detailed use case disclosure.
Source: xPET official
XPET tokens can be purchased on DEX, converted to BPET, or pledged ETH to obtain XPET worth 90% (according to the market price). Note that the method of staking to obtain XPET may face liquidation as the price of XPET rises (this may also constitute an impetus for project parties to pull offers)
After the XPET tokens are consumed, 5% will be allocated to the project, 50% will be used for marketing, and 45% will be used to redeem the BPET-XPET conversion.
3. Suppress token selling
There are some hidden lines hidden in xPETs game design, and many mechanisms to control token sales have been added to help the project stabilize the currency price and allow time for updated designs, such as:
(1) BPET-XPET conversion requires a waiting period: each user can only execute 100 BPET exchange orders at a time. You need to wait for the previous withdrawal order to be completed before opening the next conversion order. Every user who places a conversion order is considered to be in the queue. The larger the queue, the longer the number of days required to receive BPET tokens.
(2) BPET can continue to be obtained by Farm, but the amount consumed is very high compared to actions such as output upgrades. If you only rely on output to upgrade pets, you will have to wait for a long time, and it will be difficult to have excess after the upgrade. Tokens are sold.
(3) Only level 7 pets can contribute blueberries, and only level 10 factories can convert BPET. New players must invest first, and then accumulate their capital back during a waiting period.
(4) The introduction of the PVE mechanism has added ways to obtain BPET, but receiving BPET will reduce the pets level by 3 levels, which will reduce the income of PVE in the future and will also inhibit everyone from selling coins quickly.
3. Revenue model
Game mining income and token speculation income
The main method of income in the game is currently obtained through Farming, but because the price of the game token BPET fluctuates, if BPET is purchased to upgrade pets and factories when the price is high, and the price of BPET subsequently drops, it will be converted into When U is in position, the return period will be lengthened. On the contrary, upgrading when the price is relatively low, accumulating output until selling when the token price is high will shorten the payback period or amplify profits.
The important thing in token speculation is to buy low and sell high. Refer to the excellent Farmer to seize the opportunity of short-term underestimation and overestimation of prices to make profits. Due to the limited supply and token swap conversion period, the price of inflation XPET is significantly higher than BPET.
Since upgrading pets according to the current currency price requires a large amount of BPET, it is best to seize the opportunity if you want to make profits through mining. Attached is a table of upgrade consumption and berry output:
Source: Start the xpet pet journey tutorial
4. Potential risks
1. Economic model risks
The rise in currency prices will increase the popularity of the project and the benefits of early participants, but it will also increase the threshold for late entrants. When the price of BPET is US$1, purchasing BPET to upgrade to level 7 requires BPET worth US$285. Owning a level 10 pet and a level 5 factory requires BPET of US$685, which I believe is not a very low price for most retail investors.
How to strike a balance between rising token prices to build growth expectations and continuing to break through the circle to acquire new users so that the economic model does not collapse is the most difficult thing to test the wisdom of the project side. Currently, we have not seen a good solution launched. But a healthy model should be for the project team to maintain a currency price that gradually fluctuates upwards, so that new users have growth expectations and wealth creation effects, and are willing to consume when they enter to look forward to future benefits.
I temporarily believe that the model of token income in the adventure planned by the project team is also applicable to the overall token economics.
Source: xPET official
2. Centralization risk
According to a December audit by Beosin, a third-party blockchain security agency, the xPET project has centralized characteristics, which in turn presents potential risks. For example: the main contract of xPET is an ERC 1967 upgradeable contract. The main contract is responsible for processing the lending logic of ETH and xPET. However, since the main contract is an upgradeable contract, and the project does not disclose the logic contract in this upgradeable contract, potential logic errors or risks in the logic contract cannot be detected; the xPET token contract inherits the ERC 20 and AccessControl contracts, which The contract designates the deployer as an administrator role, forming a centralized control point. Attacking the deployers account poses significant risks in terms of token accessibility, and this contract centralizes token flow since all tokens are minted into the contract itself. This design makes the flow of tokens centralized.
However, centralization is also a common problem in many blockchain projects. In the end, whether there is a problem depends on the technical strength and structure of the project party. Dear Users DYOR.
3. Competition risks
After xPET became popular, many imitation disks have appeared in recent days, such as XSaiyan, Bitpet, zPET, xKingdom, etc. Among them, xSAIYAN is relatively popular. Its background is based on the world view of Dragon Ball Z, and the tokens are deployed as BRC 20 and ERC 20 at the same time.
5. Data and Roadmap
1. Current data performance
The current game has been officially running for only one month, and the total number of users is only 1.5w. Compared with its X platform and simple gameplay based on hundreds of millions of users, it is a long time to continue to break through the circle through marketing to capture X users. Not a difficult thing to do. The overall transaction volume trend, ETH value changes and other data are not in a stable growth stage, but there is a significant influx following the price increase. It is still in an early stage in terms of actual functions and operational data, but the overall situation of the project is good and the potential market growth is huge. It is believed that there is considerable room for imagination in future development.
Source: Dune
2. Roadmap planning
xPet announced a 3-month roadmap, which can be divided into three parts:
(1) PVE (already online)
Adventure (PvE) - Week 1 (December 21-December 28, 2023):
Activate the Adventure (Player and Environment) feature.
Allows users to engage their pets in exciting adventures
(2) PvP (under development)
PvP Beta (Private) - Weeks 2 – 3 (December 29, 2023 – January 11, 2024):
Develop and release beta version of player vs. player (PvP) feature; internal team has limited access to private testing to identify and resolve potential issues
PvP Ver 1 (Public) - Week 4 (January 12-January 18, 2024):
Releases the first public version of PvP functionality; allowing users to participate in PvP battles with enhanced features.
PvP Ver 2 (Complete) - Week 5 – 6 (January 19-February 1, 2024)
Finalize and complete PvP functionality based on user feedback and testing; introduce additional elements and improvements to enhance the PvP experience.
(3) Multi-chain and socialFi
Multi-Chain - Weeks 7 – 9 Weeks 7 – 9 (February 2 – February 22, 2024):
Start implementing multi-chain support; explore and integrate compatibility with multiple blockchain networks for increased flexibility.
More Social Fi Features - Weeks 10-12 (February 23-March 14, 2024):
Introducing additional Social Fi features; enhancing the social and interactive aspects of the platform to provide a more engaging experience
6. Conclusion
1. Rational participation in xPET requires grasping the rhythm of token fluctuations, investing at low levels, selling at high levels, and achieving stable returns.
2. How xPET solves the economic model problem so that its tokens rise without collapsing is still the biggest challenge. If imitators are unable to solve this problem, the price will follow.
3. Projects such as xPET are in their early stages, but the market has confirmed that the track has great potential and deserves attention.
