The futures premium of BTC and ETH on CME is already close to that of the last bull market.
The market voting with its feet tells you how certain everyone is about the passage of spot ETFs.
Today’s largest BTC options block: buy end-January 37,000 calls + sell 60,000 calls. 8.9% royalty cost, 10x leverage.
Another unusually quiet trading day, with most asset classes consolidating, US new home sales data contracting more than expected (but still at healthy levels), and while 2-year and 5-year auctions underperformed, US Bond yields remain stable, while the U.S. dollar continues to weaken against the offshore yuan, Swedish krona, New Zealand dollar and other high-beta emerging market currencies.
The actual volatility of the stock market on the 5th day of the past week was only 6.6%. With only 5 trading weeks left in 2023, prices have the opportunity to rise further during consolidation. Last Friday, the stock market VIX fell to a post-epidemic low of 12.5, while major assets The volatility of the categories has compressed simultaneously; according to Citigroup data, the markets seasonality at the end of the year is biased towards the positive. From the data since 1929, there will be positive returns in an average of 4 weeks in the last 5 weeks, and in the end of December The winning rate in 2 weeks is close to 60-70%. Before the holidays, the main economic events include the CPI data and the FOMC meeting on December 12-13. However, the market has no reason to be pessimistic, especially considering that US economic data continues to exceed expectations even if it slows down.
Cryptocurrency prices have been essentially flat for much of the past 3 weeks, but altcoins (Solana, Lido, Chainlink, etc.) have had a strong monthly performance, continuing to give crypto users hope that the rally will continue, even though most players have already Long, but the major currencies were able to hold on to gains despite delays in unilateral positions and ETF approval, which can be considered a relatively positive technical development and will be conducive to an upward breakthrough later.
Regarding the latest SEC and Binance incident, the Wall Street Journal reported that although a plea agreement was reached last week, the SEC is still looking for evidence that Binance and CZ may have backdoors to control assets on the Binance.US platform, and the judge has requested The two sides have until December 15 to resolve the dispute, and CZ is prohibited from leaving the United States.
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