Does DWF Labs affect the market whenever there is news? The data analysis results are as follows
Original - Odaily
Author - Nan Zhi
Since LADYS, YGG and other high-multiplying tokens emerged from DWF Labs, DWF has begun to gain a reputation in the secondary trading market, but it has also received mixed reviews. The markets impression of tokens involving DWF includes: ① The rise is rapid and violent, and the increase multiple is usually high; ② The decline process is also fast and violent, usually without warning (such as AGLD).
Therefore, the markets attention to DWF continues to rise, and some users have begun to operate based on DWF news (such as large transfers on the chain), viewing it as a potential pull indicator.
However, DWF often behaves differently, for example:
Transferred a range of altcoins to the exchange, saying it was “holding, not selling”；
Tokens are transferred to the exchange and then transferred out within a very short time (LEVER was transferred to Binance and then transferred out eight minutes later).
Odaily counted the short-term and medium-term trends of DWF-related tokens to explore whether there are specific patterns, among which:
Investment and receipt of tokens are subject to the official announcement time;
Transfers in and out of the exchange are subject to complete token transfers (DWF usually conducts small-amount tests).
DWF’s impact on short-term markets
This section counts the operations of DWF Labs from 2023/7/1 to 2023/9/30. The operation types include five categories:
① Announce market making, ② announce investment, ③ receive tokens, ④ transfer out of CEX, ⑤ transfer into CEX.
Among them, moving to CEX is considered a negative, and the remaining four are considered positive.
The statistical dimensions in this section include 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes, corresponding to three types of situations:
DWF usually conducts small-amount transfer-in and transfer-out tests (within a few minutes to a dozen minutes between complete transfers). For short-term robots, 1 minute is enough to capture the market;
For on-chain monitoring (such as Lookonchain, etc.), it usually takes a few minutes before the report is broadcast;
Spreading in major communities will take additional time, and this department uses 15 minutes as the limit.
The statistical results are as follows:
Distinguish between good and bad, followed by time order;
An increase of more than 0.1% is marked in green, a decrease of more than 0.1% is marked in red;
The overall rules are summarized as follows:
Short-term fluctuations have no significant characteristics:Only 77.7% were up or down more than 0.1% (63/81). If the limit is set to 0.5%, there are only 45.7% (37/81). Only 28.3% (23/81) had an increase or decrease of more than 1%.
The overall short-term trend is slightly higher, but the impact is low:
The average price increase in 1 minute is 0.33%, and the average price increase in 1 minute is -0.16%.
The average price increase in 5 minutes is 0.73%, and the average price increase in 5 minutes is 0.07%.
The average price increase in 15 minutes is 1.13%, and the average price increase in 15 minutes is 0.04%.
DWF mid-term market impact
Limiting the scope of statistics to DWF Labs’ last transfer of tokens to the exchange for research, will the “mysterious power” of DWF be lost and the token market come to an end? The statistical results are as follows:
The pattern of DWF’s last transfer of tokens to the exchange has significantly improved compared to the short term:
The probability and amplitude of decline are large:66.7% (16/24) fell, with an average decline of 3.5% in 24 hours and an average decline of 6.7% in 72 hours;
The increase in the rising event is small:Among the 8 rises, only two rose by more than 3% (LEVER, the biggest riser, rose 32.6% and fell 50% three days later).
In addition, this section counts the 24-hour and 72-hour amplitudes. After DWF was transferred to the exchange, the amplitude of related currencies was quite significant, with the maximum amplitude reaching 113.2% (YGG had a maximum increase of 67.7% in 24 hours and a -45.5% decrease in the 72-hour lowest point) , the 72-hour average amplitude reached 34.3%,Far beyond the normal amplitude of the market during a bear market。
in conclusion
To sum up, the rules of DWF Labs related news and transfer behavior are summarized as follows:
DWF Labs related operations have no significant impact on the short-term market, and market trends usually do not occur within 15 minutes;
After DWF Labs transferred tokens to the exchange, the correlation with the decline of the token was more significant. In a few cases, the market lasted for more than 3 days, but it still fell sharply within a week;
After DWF Labs transferred tokens to the exchange, the market surged dramatically, with huge room for both upwards and downwards.
Odaily would like to remind you: This article is only a statistical summary of historical situations and is not an investment guide for subsequent market trends.
