Weekly Editor's Picks（0909-0915）

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2023-09-16 00:00

This article is about 3558 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

High-quality in-depth analysis articles and catching up on hot topics of the week.

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High-quality in-depth analysis articles and catching up on hot topics of the week.

"Weekly Editor's Picks" is a "functional" column of Odaily. Based on weekly coverage of a large number of real-time news, it also publishes many high-quality in-depth analysis articles, which may be hidden in the information stream and hot news, passing you by.

Therefore, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles worth reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days every Saturday, bringing new inspiration to you in terms of data analysis, industry judgments, and viewpoint output in the encrypted world.

Below, let's read together:

Investment

A glimpse into the current state of the US government's Bitcoin holding addresses: prediction of selling time and amount

There are three Bitcoin addresses of the US government that traders must pay attention to: bc1qazcm763858nkj2dj986etajv6wquslv8uxwczt, bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6, and bc1qmxjefnuy06v345v6vhwpwt05dztztmx4g3y7wp (James Zhong Case address to be focused on this year);
This year, the US government will liquidate and auction the remaining Bitcoin in James Zhong Case address in four batches, totaling about 41,490.72 BTC;
The estimated selling time of the remaining Bitcoin in the address is Sept. 15, Oct. 15, Nov. 15, and Dec. 15, an average of 10,000/sale;
The remaining portion may cause a Bitcoin price fluctuation of about -2% to -6% each time it is sold;
The next address to be liquidated is likely the Silk Road Case address: bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6.

LD Capital: Analyzing the investment logic and growth potential of Coinbase

Coinbase's profitability will continue to be suppressed in the next 12 months, but the growth potential in revenue and profitability will be released within 24 months. The revenue growth that has not been fully priced in includes:

Substantial revenue growth from the launch of international platforms and derivative products;
Sustained growth in staking business, including ranking revenue from base chain (and other chains); revenue from staking business; incremental usage of Coinbase's other products and services (wallets, etc.) brought by on-chain users;
Potential recovery in USDC volume leading to increased interest income from reserves and fees generated from distribution.

However, due to the strong correlation with the crypto market, it is expected that the main trading revenue of the core business will not grow significantly in the macro pessimistic 8 - 12 months, which goes against the backdrop of a high inflation high interest rate environment suitable for crypto growth. But in the subsequent bull market, the growth rate will exceed the 515% growth of the 21-year period.

DeFi

Why is now the best time to pay attention to tokens with liquidity and re-collateralization?

EigenLayer's re-collateralization model has a major drawback for DeFi: once the liquidity-staking tokens (LST) are locked in EigenLayer, they become illiquid, and people cannot trade them, use them as collateral, or use them anywhere else in DeFi.

Liquidity re-staking tokens (LRT) offer a solution by unlocking this liquidity and adding another layer of leverage to enhance returns. Unlike directly depositing LST into EigenLayer, users can choose to deposit through a liquidity re-staking protocol. This is similar to the logic we use with Lido. Liquidity re-staking is building a high-yield house of cards for early adopters. The tokenomics of LRT protocols look very enticing, and I believe they will evolve in a similar way to veTokenomics.

Some promising LRT protocols include: Stader Labs, Astrid Finance, InceptionLST.

Liquidity re-staking tokens also come with risks. Essentially, we are layering leverage, similar to early DeFi, which makes the system more susceptible to market fluctuations and system failures. Re-collateralization may be overused. It can be maximized by launching an AVS that does not require access to the Ethereum consensus layer.

PSE Trading: Exploring the underlying business model of RWA and considering sustainability

The crypto market lacks stable low-risk sources of income. Only ETH-based liquidity staking based on the PoS mechanism has been recognized and supported by the market funds. This also indirectly illustrates the inevitability of the rise of LSDFi. RWA introduces the income of real-world assets into the crypto industry, injecting better liquidity and vitality into the entire market as the real income of U-based assets.

The underlying assets of RWA can be divided into two categories:

Interest-bearing RWA (comparable to post-PoS ETH): bond-type assets, mainly short-term US treasuries or bond ETFs;
Non-interest-bearing RWA (comparable to PoW ETH): real estate, art, gold, etc.

The best medium-term underlying assets of RWA are debt-based assets mainly composed of short-term US treasuries or bond ETFs. Its income attributes not only perfectly meet the crypto market's internal desire for low-risk income sources, but also have good liquidity and high standardization, which is conducive to the large-scale application of RWA.

Based on US bond RWA, there are currently three mainstream business models: underlying infrastructure business, middle layer hybrid business, and upper-layer DeFi business. The tokenization difficulty, flexibility, and target customer groups of the three-tier business models differ significantly. However, considering the legal regulatory risks and development ceilings, the upper-layer DeFi business has a higher ceiling. Putting US bond RWA on the chain is only the first step, but exploring the composability around "income attributes" and native DeFi is a more worthwhile direction to explore. There are already different attempts in the market, such as stablecoins based on US bond RWA, permissionless lending, etc.

SocialFi

Folius Ventures: Friend.Tech's explosive logic and future evolution trend

With sufficient execution capabilities, Friend.Tech may still have at least two peaks of high DAU impact in the future. The joint curve still has room for improvement (the team has made good choices in simplicity). Homeowners who hold high traffic, high adhesion, high net worth, and long-term deep cultivation of the product may maximize Points acquisition.

Folius consumer product Web3 integrates three elements: offshore fiat channel, low cash cost incentive for customer acquisition, reliance on external liquidity and economic depth tax, all of which are well reflected in Friend.Tech.

Analysis of MEV on friend.tech: how to execute? How profitable?

Ordinary people have little chance of obtaining cheap high-value data. High-value data has little chance of preserving their supply. Currently, it seems worthwhile to adopt the classic strategy of "buying after the snipers are eliminated". Especially considering that the price curve is slightly skewed, if large-scale data is immediately targeted by snipers, this could lead to a rather unhealthy situation.

The purchase situation is not displayed on the interface. Uninformed users may miss the sharp increase in sniper prices and the upcoming sell-off. This actually harms the organic and sincere users of the platform.

Also recommended is "An article teaching you how to create a Ponzi scheme using friend.tech", a practical guide.

Ethereum and Scalability

Principles, current applications, and risk response of Intent

The goal of Intent is to alleviate the burden on users. Intent allows users to outsource transaction creation to third parties without giving away full control by signing a set of descriptive constraints. Currently, Intent has new applications in cross-chain MEV (such as SUAVE), ERC 4337 account abstractions, and Seaport orders. While ERC 4337 is developing, other new applications such as cross-domain Intent are also entering the exploration stage. The most apparent pathway for Intent to be in the hands of willing intermediaries is Ethereum's Mempool.

However, the current Mempool design does not support the propagation of Intent. The openness and permissionless nature of the Ethereum Mempool pose barriers to the adoption of Intent. One attempted design is a decentralized API that allows gossip broadcasting of Intent among nodes in the system, providing permissionless access to executors. However, this design also faces challenges such as DoS resistance, propagation incentives, and MEV.

The ideal system should be permissionless so that anyone can match and execute Intents without sacrificing too much execution quality. The system should be general-purpose, allowing the deployment of new applications without the need to establish a new Mempool. The system should be transparent, enabling public reporting of the execution process of Intents and providing data for execution quality audits when privacy guarantees allow.

Interoperability

LD Capital: The Future Road of LayerZero Cross-chain Innovation and Star Projects

The LayerZero protocol focuses only on the transmission of information between chains, allowing the sending of messages to any smart contract on any supported chain. It is responsible for smart contract communication between blockchains but not for cross-chain asset transfers, which are handled by Stargate developed by LayerZero Labs.

Its advantages include security, scalability, and high efficiency.

Currently, LayerZero supports over 20 chains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Avalanche, Polygon, and Base. It has attracted over 3 million individual users and facilitated over 56 million transactions. However, 35% of users have only 1 interaction record, and there are only around 730,000 users with more than 2 interaction records.