Analysis of Sui ecological data and token release

It has been more than 40 days since Sui was launched on May 3. As one of the representative projects of the Move public chain, Sui represents a different development direction from Ethereum L2. Since the project was launched, there have been many controversies, especially its token issuance method and release model. Some people think that it will follow in the footsteps of ICP, while others think that it may be similar to the new public chain in 2021.

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1. TVL

As of June 13, Sui’s TVL was $15.22 million, of which DEX Cetus accounted for more than 60% of the TVL. Among all public chains and the second layer, the TVL ranks 54th. At its peak, its TVL reached $36.01 million, which equates to a drop of more than 50%.

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2. Transaction volume

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3. Activity

Since its launch, the total number of transactions is 16.53 million, the average TPS* is 3, the total number of active addresses is 850,000, and the number of active nodes is 104. As can be seen from the figure below, the highest TPS since its launch is 26, which appeared on May 12, which is the date of Turbos IDO.

*Remarks: The TPS here refers to the TPS in actual operation, not the TPS that can be operated in theory.

Compared with the TPS of Ethereum L2, at present, Sui's actual TPS is still very low.

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4. Cross-chain bridge

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2. Ecological projects

As of June 14, a total of 66 projects have been included in sui.directory on Sui's official website. These projects are self-declared and filled by the project party, and many of them are still in testing and have not yet been officially launched.

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Source: coingecko, defillama, LD Capital

It can be seen that most of the ecological projects on Sui did not perform well after they went online. The two projects that are the top DEXs have both been broken. The social platform SUIA fell by nearly 81.82%. Suipad performed relatively well, mainly due to the relatively low pricing at IDO, with an FDV of only $5 million.

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3. Token release and demand

The community is most concerned about the release of Sui tokens. This is a token distribution and unlocking diagram from token.unlocks, using data from Binance related reports. The total amount of tokens is 10 billion, the initial circulation is 528 million, and the circulation accounts for 5.28%.

From May to October 2023, there will be two types of Sui releases, one is the release of tokens previously issued by participating in the IEO of the exchange, and the other is the release of incentive tokens obtained by pledged nodes.

The IEO price is $0.1 per SUI. The total number of tokens participating in the IEO is 450 million. 1/13 will be unlocked during the public sale, and 1/13 will be unlocked every month thereafter, and the unlocking will be completed in 12 months. According to this, about 34.61 million tokens are released every month.

SUI token node pledges can obtain token incentives, and a total of 1 billion tokens are used for node pledge incentives.

In the first 90 epochs (1 epoch = 1 day), 1.11 million SUI tokens will be awarded every day. The reward is reduced by 10% every 90 epochs thereafter. There are currently approximately 7.4 billion SUI tokens staked in the system with an average APY of 5.61%. Based on this calculation, the circulation of this part of tokens increased by 33.3 million per month in the first three months after the launch, and increased by 30 million per month in the fourth to sixth months after the launch.

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Source: suivision

In November 2023, 6 months after Sui goes online, a large amount will be unlocked. Unlocking more than 1 billion coins on the same day will double the number of circulating tokens.

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4. Comparison of Aptos Token Release Model

Compare move with Aptos, and see the similarities and differences of the token releases of these two projects.

The total supply of Aptos tokens (excluding pledge incentives) is 1 billion, and the initial circulation is 130 million, accounting for 13%. In the first year after the launch, 4.54 million tokens held by the community and foundations will be unlocked every month, accounting for 0.45% of the total tokens, and the equivalent market value is about 28 million US dollars.

Starting from the second year after going online, in addition to the community and foundation releases, the core contributors and investors will also be released every month. From the 13th to the 18th month, 20 million tokens will be released each month, accounting for 2% of the total tokens; from the 19th month to the 50th month, 6.75 million tokens will be released each month, accounting for 0.67% of the total tokens.

In addition, Aptos also has node pledge incentives. This portion of tokens is not among the 1 billion tokens mentioned at the time of the initial launch. Currently, the maximum reward rate (APY) for staking on the network is 7%, and the reward rate decreases by 1.5% every year until it falls to 3.25%.

At present, a total of 860 million APT tokens are pledged in the network, accounting for nearly 86%. It can be seen that the total supply of tokens is 1.039 billion, and these 39.5 million belong to the additional issuance after node pledge incentives. Aptos has been online for about 8 months, and the monthly pledge incentives are about 4.9 million, accounting for 0.49% of the total tokens.

It can be seen that Sui and Aptos are both low-circulation and high-inflation tokens. However, the initial circulation of SUI is lower than that of APT, which is equivalent to 50% of APT; the number of unlocked tokens per month in the first 6 months is higher, which is 50% higher than that of APT. The first large-scale release of SUI was 6 months after the launch, and 12 months after the launch of APT; SUI used a one-time release, and a large number of tokens entered the market on the day of unlocking, while APT used monthly unlocking. There is a buffer period.

V. Conclusion

V. Conclusion

Judging from the data and ecological projects on the chain, Sui has insufficient users and few transactions, and is still in the process of cold start. It needs to attract users and capital inflow through continuous activities and construction.

However, based on Sui’s current operational activities, the team is still paying more attention to the construction of the technical side at this stage, including holding hackathons and holding developer events around the world. User incentives have not yet been activated.

At the same time, on the one hand, in a bear market environment, funds and users tend to be conservative. On the other hand, the second layer of Ethereum is also continuing to develop. For existing users, it is more convenient and safer to transfer funds from Ethereum to the second layer. Therefore, it has attracted a large amount of on-site funds. Compared with the two, it is more difficult for Sui to attract funds and users.

From the perspective of the token economic model, compared with Aptos, which is also a Move-based public chain, the release pressure of Sui tokens is concentrated in the first year. In the case of insufficient demand, matching such a large supply of tokens has caused SUI tokens to face greater selling pressure.