With 32 pairs of eyes, see through Crypto's 2023
2022 has come to an end. Looking back at the past year, the price of the currency continued to fall, the data on the chain shrunk sharply, FTX, Sanjian, Terra and other giants who once dominated the storm have also collapsed, and the decline and fall seem to have become the "main theme" of the industry. ".
Fortunately, the encryption world is no stranger to cyclical cycles. Since the birth of Bitcoin, this industry has experienced many rounds of bull-bear alternation, and it can always find new vitality between ups and downs and chaos, and then accompanied by a batch of The "rise and fall" of yet another batch of new projects continues to grow.
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Mainstream projects and companies
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin
On December 20th, Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, accepted a speech from David Hoffman, the co-founder of Bankless.the interviewAt the time, he predicted three areas of opportunity in 2023, namely wallets, inflation-resistant stablecoins, and Ethereum-based website login services.
Vitalik said that developers should still do more development on the wallet infrastructure to make it easier to use on a daily basis so that it is ready to serve billions of users; Stablecoins that are globally accessible will start a new industry revolution; finally, any service that helps Ethereum take away website logins from Facebook, Google, Twitter, and other centralized monopolies will help Ethereum has seized a dominant position in the Internet application market.
However, Vitalik also mentioned that given the increasing competition and the maturity of the market, the opportunity to fill the gap in the market has become less obvious.
ConsenSys
On December 15th, ConsenSys published an article on the future development of zk Rollup on CMC's "Script 2023" channel.predictive article。
ConsenSys pointed out that as the zkEVM solution matures, in the future we will see projects that take other Rollup routes (mainly Optimistic Rollup) begin to seek to transition to zk proof or hybrid solutions, and take advantage of their existing user base to consolidate its market dominance. Ultimately, the multitude of Rollup solutions (and the growing competition among them) will continue to improve the user experience in the Web3 world and attract more users as a platform for applications.
In the long run, the real winners in the Layer 2 race will be able to take advantage of the efficiency of zk Rollup and combine it with a seamless developer and user experience to successfully stand out.
Polygon
On December 21, Polygon released a series of summaries for 2022tweets。
When talking about the development in 2023, Polygon predicted that 2023 will be a year of zk technology, when the rules of the game of the entire encryption ecosystem will be changed; It will likely become the most important year in the history of DeFi. Non-custodial wallets, ZK expansion, on-chain credit, and stable currency adoption are key components that will push DeFi to new heights.
Uniswap
On December 22, Uniswap Labs released an article on CMC's "2023 Script" channel about DEX's ability to surpass CEX in the future.predictive article。
The article pointed out that there are signs from the transaction data that DEX is gradually eroding the market share of CEX, but in order to surpass CEX, DEX must solve three major problems in the future: create a more friendly deposit process; improve the user experience of ordinary traders; Compete on costs and fees.
Binance founder CZ
open letteropen letter。
CZ mentioned in the letter that the industry will continue to be affected by the collapse of FTX for a long time, but from the perspective of market health, each round of bear market will be better than the last round of bear market, so the industry is expected to be relatively healthy. recover quickly.
It is critical that the crypto ecosystem first and foremost focus on protecting users, while also innovating and building to bring Cyrpto and Web3 deeper into people's daily lives. CZ predicts that infrastructure and data tools will continue to develop and will become more and more. In the future, everyone will witness the evolution of Web3 ownership and see the rise of non-custodial wallets and multi-chain wallets.
Coinbase
On December 20, Coinbase releasedCryptocurrency Market Outlook 2023report, the report forecasts three key themes for 2023.
Coinbase predicts that, first, institutional investors will turn to high-quality assets, and pay more attention to the sustainability of token economics, the maturity of the ecosystem, and market liquidity conditions when choosing asset classes; the second is that creative destruction will eventually bring New opportunities, the willingness of investors to increase their holdings of altcoins has been severely affected by the deleveraging in 2022, and it may take several months to fully recover; the third is that fundamental reforms will usher in the next cycle, and the new cycle will be greatly affected. The extent will be influenced by the development of regulatory standards and frameworks.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX
On December 10th, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX who is keen to predict the market, released another forecastarticle, and pointed out through analysis that the selling pressure from centralized lending institutions, Bitcoin mining companies and ordinary speculators has basically ended, and the collapse of Alameda/FTX may have brought the currency price to a cyclical bottom position.
Arthur's final prediction said: "I don't know if $15,900 is the bottom of this cycle, but I'm sure that price is due to the forced selling caused by the credit crunch... There will be a dislocation sometime in 2023, at which point the Fed will turn on its money printing presses, and Bitcoin and all other risk assets will see a surge.”
Xu Mingxing, Founder of OKX
On December 28, Xu Mingxing, the founder of OKXTweetHe said that the cryptocurrency field in 2023 will be very interesting, and Ethereum 2.0 and zero-knowledge proof technology will make Ethereum a real blockchain operating system.
Kraken Appoints CEO David Ripley
In an interview with Business Insider on Dec. 19, David Ripley, the new CEO of incoming cryptocurrency exchange KrakenshareHis personal five major trends in 2023 are: NFT that can be used in ticketing systems and game-based technologies, cross-border payments like Bitcoin Lightning Network, decentralized storage like Filecoin, decentralized social media, and cryptocurrency self-custody businesses.
Crypto.com
On December 28, Crypto.com atYear-end summary articleAccording to the forecast in China, the number of global cryptocurrency owners may reach 600-800 million in 2023, depending on market conditions.
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Well-known investment institutions
a16z has multiple partners
On December 16, a16z released a report on 2023 by its major business line partners.Opinion Forecast Collection. In the field of cryptocurrency, Noah Citron and other seven partners talked about the potential directions they are optimistic about, as follows.
Noah Citron: mobile blockchain services;
Valeria Nikolaenko: Zero-Knowledge, Multi-Party Computation, and Post-Quantum Encryption;
Michael Zhu: Zero-knowledge systems shift from theory to practice;
Joseph Bonneau: Verifiable Delay Function (VDF) hardware;
Carra Wu: Fully on-chain games and "autonomous worlds";
Michael Blau: non-transferable tokens (a description Blau claims to prefer over soul-bound tokens);
Guy Wuollet: Decentralization of energy markets.
Dragonfly partners Haseeb Qureshi and Tom Schmidt
On December 14, Dragonfly partners Haseeb Qureshi and Tom Schmidt posted an article on industry developments on CMC's "2023 Playbook" channel.forecast article。
Haseeb et al. pointed out that after the FTX incident, due diligence standards in the industry will inevitably increase. Therefore, when investing in CeFi companies, more VCs will require board seats or more company control rights; and for invested companies, Improving Proof of Reserve (PoR) is likely to become standard practice in the future.
Eventually, we may see a breakdown of the roles of exchanges. Today, exchanges act as custodians, brokers, lending servicers, and exchanges, all bundled into the same entity. Going forward, we are likely to see these different functions split into different entities, just like in traditional finance, which will make it harder for exchanges to steal customers' funds (as they do not have access to them). All in all, these changes are all about making the next FTX event less likely.
Piers Kicks, Head of Games, Delphi Digital
Piers Kicks, Head of Games, Delphi Digital, December 14thpostSummarized the current status of Crypto games and talked about his views on the future of Crypto games.
Piers mentioned that in the next 1-2 years, some really exciting things will appear in the Crypto game industry. In the future, some traditional game service providers will also launch some Crypto-related things and push Crypto games to the mainstream.
However, Piers also mentioned: "I'm not sure whether there will be a breaking game that reaches millions of users in 2023. I don't want to arbitrarily say that 2023 will be the year when Crypto games blowout. I think some financing teams It will remain low-key in 2023, and it will be very interesting to keep an eye on them."
Paul Veradittakitl, Partner, Pantera Capital
On December 15, Paul Veradittakitl, a partner of Pantera Capital, posted on his personal websitepostTalked about the trend forecast for 2023. Paul believes that there will be six major trends in 2023, namely: DeFi will continue to grow while CeFi is repaired; we will see a large number of zero-knowledge proofs adopted; more and more institutions will tokenize financial assets; More and more companies will utilize blockchain data; developer tool stacks will continue to evolve as blockchain developers seek simpler and more efficient ways to deploy Web3 projects; NFTs ( Such as game NFT and identity NFT) will continue to develop.
Hashkey Capital
Posted on December 21stDeFi Ecosystem ReportAmong them, Hashkey Capital said that it should remain optimistic about the development of DeFi in 2023. The reasons lie in four aspects: one is large-scale adoption; the other is to realize the financial interaction of Web3; the third is innovation; Create unprecedented network effects.
Puzzle Ventures
On December 21, Puzzle Ventures atYear-end summary articleThe development status of the decentralized storage track is analyzed in the article. Puzzle Ventures predicts that the following four types of projects are expected to become the next growth engine for the storage track:
One is the DSN aggregator: an aggregation portal established on different/same DSN networks, and provides tools to improve user-friendliness such as cost optimization options, unified token payment, data availability/calling services, etc.
The second is off-chain computing: Although Filecoin has a decentralized computing layout on the chain, pure on-chain computing cannot meet more complex computing requirements. A comprehensive solution that combines on-chain data and off-chain computing can be completed by More complex calculations to increase the value of data and expand use cases.
The third is the Layer 1 storage expansion network: The advantage of Layer 1 storage and computing power expansion is that it can directly generate deep connections with the Layer 1 ecology. Even if it meets projects with large data storage requirements such as social and gaming, it can also obtain official approval Afterwards, integration can be achieved quickly and at scale.
The fourth is the third-party data security network: provide security protection for the data stored in the existing DSN, review, backup and block hacker attacks on the storage nodes, and provide relevant compensation insurance plans.
Andrew Keys, Partner, DARMA Capital
On December 29, Andrew Keys, partner of DARMA Capital, spoke in "23 Predictions for the Blockchain Ecosystem in 2023The article predicts that by 2023, Ethereum will remain the most widely adopted, most widely developed, and most capital-intensive Layer 1 blockchain. The merger will be the first since Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin genesis block in 2009. The biggest event in the industry, Ethereum in 2023 will introduce more subtle but equally important developments, driving more adoption and capital in a flywheel effect, which will make Ethereum the frontrunner for the next bull market.
Andrew wrote: "When we look back in 10 years to 2022, the real news is not the stupidity of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Celsius Network, but the conversion of Ethereum to proof of stake and continue to become the most mainstream Layer 1 .A series of protocol-level developments created waves of innovation, development, users, and capital. In Ethereum, we are witnessing the evolution of the underlying human social, economic, and political operating system.”
TCG Crypto
On December 28, TCG Crypto wrote to investorsyear-end reviewAs mentioned in the article, in 2023, the institution will focus on looking for investment opportunities in the following three directions: first, mobile-native Web3 applications; second, new media models based on data on the public chain; third, large-scale power for the ecosystem infrastructure.
Brevan Howard Head of Ventures Peter Johnson
On December 22, Peter Johnson, co-head of venture capital at asset management company Brevan Howard DigitalTweetTalked about the future space of the stable currency market.
Peter pointed out that last year, the settlement volume on the stablecoin chain (excluding the transaction volume of centralized exchanges) exceeded 7 trillion US dollars, which far exceeded MasterCard (approximately 2.2 trillion US dollars), AmEx card (approximately 1 trillion US dollars). ) and Discover cards (less than $200 billion), by 2023, the settlement volume of stablecoins on the chain will not only exceed the largest bank card network Visa (processing about $12 trillion per year), but also likely to exceed the four major US cards The sum of the settlement amount of the network.
Kyle Davies, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital
Sanjian Capital, which has already fallen, has not missed the forecast for 2023, but its content is more or less gossip. On December 26, Kyle Davies, co-founder of Three Arrows CapitalTweetsecondary title
Investment research institutions and communities
Messari
On December 22, Messari published a 157-page"Cryptocurrency Annual Report 2023", the report provides an impressive overview of the current state of development of the entire crypto ecosystem, focusing on areas such as Bitcoin and stablecoins, Layer 1 and Rollup, DeFi, NFTs, and DAOs. In view of the large content of the full text, it is recommended that you move to "The Digest of Messari's Annual Report: 33 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2023"reading.
Messari founder Ryan Selkis
In addition to the annual report, Messari founder Ryan Selkis personally posted on social mediatalkexpressed his views on 2023, and said that "decentralized social (DeSoc) is now my top investment theme in 2023."
Nansen founder Alex Svanevik
On December 12th, Nansen founder Alex Svanevik was also at theTwitterTalked about his views on 2023, but unlike many other people's views, Alex is still pessimistic about the development of the industry in 2023.
Alex pointed out that 2023 will be the year of "massacre" for crypto startups because: first, most startups born in 21/22 have no money; second, some companies will be acquired; third, only a few The company will be able to conduct a new round of financing (>80% cannot be financed); fourth, the wages of technical personnel will decline; fifth, technical jobs will be cut; sixth, venture capital will turn to other hot areas (such as artificial intelligence).
Dapp Radar
On December 21st, Dapp Radar released a tens of thousands of wordsAnnual Dapps Industry Development Report。
In the report, Dapp Radar focuses on analyzing the development of the NFT track, and predicts that practical NFTs (such as game NFTs, identity NFTs, and Pass cards) are expected to experience significant growth in 2023. Holder-specific permissions to disrupt various industries.
By 2023, we can expect to see further development and experimentation with practical NFTs in cryptocurrencies as well as in traditional fields, where traditional companies may begin to use NFTs to provide unique experiences or benefits to their users. Overall, NFT's innovation and potential for industry disruption are exciting and worth watching in the coming year.
Okey Cloud Chain
On December 28th, Okey Cloud Chain Research InstitutepostPredicted seven major industry trends in 2023, namely: global encryption regulation enters a new stage, and embracing compliance will become a must; Web3 industrial applications kick off, and together with AI 3.0 will lead to creative destruction; the importance of the Web3 security track is highlighted , more institutions will pay attention to the data field on the chain; the expansion plan continues to innovate, and the ZK-based Layer 2 ecology ushers in spring; with the rise of Ce-DeFi, institutions will use "another way" to re-participate in the encryption market; institutions continue to deleverage , retail investors have become a key force supporting market confidence; the global CBDC research and development process has accelerated, and the digital renminbi has further expanded its pilot program.
Bankless
On December 27th, the decentralized community Banklesspostsecondary title
Other well-known KOLs
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets, VanEck
On December 13, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEckpostShared his 11 predictions for 2023. The core content includes: Bitcoin will test a low of $10,000 to $12,000 in the first quarter, which will mark the bottom of the bear market; $30,000; financial institutions to tokenize over $10 billion in off-chain assets; a new decentralized stablecoin hits $1 billion market cap; Web3 as multiple AAA games hit the market The total number of monthly gamers will rise from 2 million to 20 million; Ethereum will enable withdrawals from the Beacon Chain.
Lane Kasselman, President, Blockchain.com
Posted in UK Tech on 28 Decemberthe interviewIn the collection, Lane Kasselman, President of Blockchain.com, expressed his pessimistic view on the market in the new year: "I expect the global economic recession will keep the price of cryptocurrency in 2023. to grow and take market share from a now-defunct platform.”
One Click Crypto founder Max Yampolsky
On December 23, Max Yampolsky, founder of One Click Crypto, posted on his personal blogshareIts trend forecast for 2023. Max believes that the following nine trends will become the key to the continued growth of the Web3 industry: first, social DeFi with identity attributes added; second, DeFi insurance; third, NFT liquidity tools; fourth, more advanced DEX trading tools; It is a revenue-based application on the mobile terminal; the sixth is NFT issued by mainstream brands; the seventh is transparency services; the eighth is more acquisitions and mergers; the ninth is compliance development.
Adam, Four Moons Income Strategist
On December 23, Four Moons Income Strategist AdampostHe talked about his industry trend forecast for 2023.
Adam predicted that, considering that the trend of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index are getting closer and closer, and there is the possibility of Mt. The inflow of good Layer 1 tokens and DApp tokens means that Bitcoin dominance should continue to decline.
When talking about specific Layer 1 projects, Adam said that he is more optimistic about Ethereum (including Layer 2) and Fantom, Canto and other projects that have a weak relationship with VC, and he is not very optimistic about Aptos, Sui, Solana, Avalanche, Near, etc. project unless a better use case for the token emerges.
New Order
On December 23, the decentralized investment DAO New OrderpostFive predictions are given for the development of the Ethereum ecosystem, namely: the bear market has not passed; EigenLayer will be the most important innovation of Ethereum; Blob transactions will not fix the scalability problem; in 2023, ZK-Rollups will not see to significant traction; Layer 3 will be a true competitor to Cosmos.
AllianceDAO Core Contributor Qiao Wang
On December 21, Qiao Wang, a core contributor to the decentralized accelerator AllianceDAOpostSome suggestions are given on the entrepreneurial direction of the entire Web3 ecosystem in 2023. In the article, Qiao Wang analyzed the development status of decentralized infrastructure, games, consumer applications, application chains, AI+Web3 and other fields, and briefly explored the potential gaps that still exist in the market.
For example, in terms of oracle machines, Qiao Wang pointed out that the current oracle machines in Web3 are mainly used to pull high-frequency information such as prices from centralized exchanges, which makes applications such as loans and derivatives possible, but we also need to come from the following fields ( Web2 social platforms, game platforms such as Steam, KYC providers, credit rating agencies, banks...) are relatively static oracles.
RedphoneCrypto
On December 15th, the well-known KOL RedphoneCrypto shared his 69 predictions about the encryption market on Twitter (more content, you can move tooriginalsummary
summary
All in all, although voices from different projects, companies, investment institutions, communities, and KOLs will have different predictions and judgments for 2023, from these earnest predictions, we can hear people's expectations for 2023 We can hear everyone's enthusiasm and belief in the future of Crypto.
The cold winter has not yet passed, and the dawn is unknown, but at the turn of the new year, we still hope that everyone can have the courage and strength to go through the bear market, as well as the enthusiasm and luck to persist until the bull market.
See you in 2023.
