Original title: "Crypto Theses for 2023"

Original post by Ryan Selkis, Messari

Original compilation: 0x22d, BlockBeats

On December 22, Messari announced the release of Messari Theses 2023, the sixth annual report of its co-founder and CEO Ryan Selkis, focusing on Bitcoin and stablecoins, L1 public chains and Rollup, DeFi, NFT and DAO and other Crypto fields The latest developments on all fronts. The report predicts that 2023 will be a year for cryptocurrencies to further demonstrate their resilience and progress in both technology and policy. Ryan Selkis, co-founder and CEO of Messari, said: "There are too many bad actors stealing the limelight in 2022, but there are still projects and people doing critical work moving our industry forward. Now is the time to refocus These people have innovated."first level title

Bitcoin and Stablecoins

1/ Bitcoin’s role as a currency will still be questioned, which is why it’s so important to build stablecoin infrastructure in parallel (the right way). Stablecoins are bridge currencies to the future.

Bitcoin is already huge, and its continued rise will be slow but strong.

We are in a race to see if more emerging market central banks start bidding for BTC, or large reserve currency countries start killing the invention. Pro-cryptocurrency folks are starting to show up in previously unlikely places like Harvard's economics department. So despite the market pressure this year, we are closer than ever to success.

2/ Bitcoin is going to overtake the Euro, folks in Brussels better learn how to deal with it.

3/ Regarding cryptocurrency mining, Bitcoin mining must be cleaner and more sustainable.

4/ In an environment of rising interest rates, many corporate treasurers may be reluctant to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. With no sign of the Federal Reserve making a major adjustment to interest rate policy, the next burst of demand for Bitcoin is likely to happen at the global government level, rather than those big companies.

5/ The public nature of most blockchains may create opportunities for privacy networks, as well as privacy-focused Layer 2s such as Aztec and Polygon's Nightfall. In the upcoming privacy war, we are most bullish on Zcash and Monero, especially Zcash.

6/ Stablecoins should become a major US export. Despite some autocratic and paternalistic hegemony in the U.S. Congress, the United States will continue to maintain a leadership position in the fields of technology, finance, and encryption. American entrepreneurs have been leading the construction of crypto infrastructure and DeFi. Today, with more than 50 million Americans owning cryptocurrency, America doesn’t need to do more to win the game than lose it.

7/ About Overcollateralized Stablecoins

MakerDAO is like Crypto's cockroach (in a good sense, of course). While Dai circulation has halved from its March 2022 peak to $5 billion, it has once again shown resilience amid a brutal bear market. Despite repeated hits to crypto lending, MakerDAO and Dai haven’t experienced any real issues or de-anchoring.

8/ About Algorithmic Stablecoins

Terra's model of seigniorage charged to the entire system is still viable. But growth must be pursued conservatively, taking advantage of "insurance" contracts backed by transaction and loan fees. For example, if Terra can take advantage of the net interest spread of sister lending protocol Anchor, offering it to insurance funds, they may have a chance to avoid a run. But when you go out the window with conservative, fee-driven growth, the risk fence goes away. The model works, but we probably shouldn't continue to take risks. Is it really a good thing to breathe oxygen to these planned black swans?

The current stablecoin market is quite chaotic, but Crypto still needs a new algorithmic stablecoin to succeed. I believe we will get an anti-inflation algorithmic stablecoin.

9/ What could be worse than a $60 billion algorithmic stablecoin crash and bankruptcy? - CBDC.

first level title

L1 public chain and Rollup

10/Ethereum in the next few years, will clean up technical debt, determine the size and security of Rollup, and ensure that the EVM remains censorship-resistant. The Ethereum merger completed this year will make derivatives such as Lido's stETH ubiquitous. And censorship is the main problem after the merger of Ethereum.

The 11/Layer 1 public chain war will be similar to the browser war. That said, EVM and one or two other players may be the winners, but dozens of L1 blockchains are unlikely to succeed together.

12/ If the scalability benefits of ZK Rollups become more apparent, they could proliferate as they theoretically offer users cheaper transaction fees. Rollups have better interoperability, throughput, and lower fees, but the jury is still out on whether they can effectively compete with other L1 public chains. Rollup gains the security of Ethereum, but transaction costs are still an order of magnitude higher than many L1s.

13/Rollup and value accumulation of modular blockchains is questionable as it is unclear how much economic value will actually flow to the consensus and data availability layers compared to transaction settlement and execution. Some DApps will have to monitor liquidity Does it end up fragmented between Rollups due to insecure cross-chain infrastructure. But as we continue to move towards a multi-rollup world with less reliance on Ethereum L1, cheaper transactions, and better usability, expect some new tools in this area (we still need cross-chain bridges).

14/Aptos, Sui These upstarts have strong teams, supporters and networks, but it is questionable how much value the upstarts will ultimately have in the crypto winter.

first level title

DeFi

16/Uniswap V3 is an impeccable AMM protocol, but this does not mean that other DEXs cannot compete with it. Competition may revolve around dynamic fees that adjust with volume or volatility, or oracle performance and reliability. What is certain is that it is impossible for other DEXs to replace Uniswap through Tokenomics or marginal price advantages. Don't compete on fees, compete on value.

17/ It is expected that Lido will become the DApp that generates the most transaction fees in the Crypto industry in 2023. In the new year, Rocket Pool's market share will be 5-10 times what it is now.

18/2023, Crypto asset management companies will shift their investment focus to DAO. It is now easier to create rules-based asset management companies in code, and protocols that allow on-chain funds and indicators will be easier to add value.

19/ Encryption protocols such as Nori, Flowcarbon, KlimaDAO, and Toucan deserve attention. These protocols have laid the foundation for reducing carbon footprints by transforming the fragmented carbon trading market, and have the ability to bring transparency, liquidity, and aggregation to the global green market. Whenever you can invest in a sustainable, green, socially conscious organization, you should.

20/ Most DeFi users and their transaction volume may need to complete KYC in the next few years to continue.

first level title

NFT

The potential of 22/NFT is still worth believing.

23/Yuga Labs had an interesting year, although ApeCoin is puzzling, this virtual community with nearly 100,000 people is as puzzling as TikTok and the Kardashian family. Also puzzling is the fact that Dogecoin and Shiba are more valuable than Uniswap. However, the Ape community really is one of the few things that has grown during this hellish year.

24/ We will continue to see more NFT experiments on Elon Musk's Twitter (and more in the decentralized social section).

25/2023, NFT-based fashion products will open up a new opportunity for brands. Whether it's purely digital or a physical/digital hybrid, there's plenty of demand. Gucci sells digital versions of physical bags on Roblox for $800 more than the “real” ones.

26/GameFi is currently the most overhyped segment in Crypto and we are bearish on GameFi.

27/ Still bullish on the future of AR/VR, but not going to bet on it, the faces of those who did so this year are swollen.

28/OpenSea will be a $100 billion company. Coinbase NFTs fail, FTX NFTs disappear, and OpenSea's advantage becomes more apparent.

first level title

DAO

30/ Encryption infrastructure will grow exponentially in areas where governments are aggressively controlling dissent and cracking down on speech, and there is a huge opportunity to cater to gray market customers. Encrypted infrastructure will be the backbone of the free and open web, worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

31/ While not going to happen overnight, DAOs will transform economics, politics, and society in general in countless ways over the next few years.

32/ However, at present, the management structure of DAO is unsustainable. Many DAOs hold a large number of their own native tokens, and the investment portfolio lacks diversity. They miss the opportunity to enrich the investment portfolio in the bull market. 2023 will be a bloodbath for crypto startups, and it will be even worse in the decentralized community.

33/2023 would be the perfect time to create a media DAO, through which $10 million would be enough to fund a crypto media giant consisting of 50 of the industry's top researchers and journalists.