The low point of the retracement determines the mid-to-long-term and short-term operation suggestions of the market outlook

特邀专栏作者

2020-09-17 15:36 (UTC+8)

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Then we can pay attention to the short-term retracement situation. As long as the position of 618 below is not broken, there is a high probability that there will be a five-wave upward pattern. You can place multiple orders in the buy zone, and the stop

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After a round of pull-up last night, the Bitcoin market ran to around 11100, which happened to be in line with the neckline position of the head and shoulders mentioned in yesterday's article, and then fell back under pressure. It is currently around 10930. We said yesterday that if the market It is a normal five-wave downward pattern, and the 4th wave will generally not exceed the 0.5 retracement of the 3rd wave. If there is a breakthrough, it is necessary to reconsider whether it is a 5-wave structure. When the market breaks through to the neckline, then The previous one is likely to be a three-wave pattern, which means that the previous decline is likely to be over. At this time, we need to pay attention to the low point of the retracement. If the retracement point does not break through 10380, we cannot rule out the possibility of restarting the 5-wave rise. That is to say, after the ABC three-wave callback is completed, it will continue to follow the structure of 5-wave upward movement.

If we want to confirm whether it is a five-wave here, we first need to pay attention to the retracement of the second wave. Generally, in the basic wave, at least one wave is extended, which must be more than 161.8% of the size of other non-expanded waves. Simply put , the expanding wave is also the longest wave. In most cases, the third wave will become the extended one, and the previous second wave may retrace to about 50%-61.8% of the first wave. When encountering such a situation, it is obviously a suitable opportunity for trading. In the bullish basic wave, you only need to set a buy limit pending order between 50%-61.8% of the first wave, the take profit is set at about 161.8% of the second wave size, and the stop loss must be placed at the basic Where the trend begins. That is to say, the 0.5-0.618 position of wave 2 retracement to wave 1 in the figure is the best buying point, so we can pay attention to the short-term retracement situation. As long as the position of 618 below is not broken, there is a high probability that the five waves will go up. The area carries out pending orders and multiple orders, and the stop loss is strictly enforced. The stop profit can be set according to 161.8% of the second wave, or it can be stopped in advance.

If the second wave wants to form a perfect shape, it needs to break through the two positions of 10800 and 10600 beforehand. These two points are also the difficulties in the upward breakthrough of the previous market. So at present, our short-term operation will not affect it, and we will proceed below Multiple pending orders are fine. In the short term, you can go short at 11050-10950 at the top, and go long at 10750-10800 at the bottom. You don’t need to look too far for short-term goals, and you need to take a good stop loss.

After breaking through the middle track for four hours, Ethereum is running between the middle and upper tracks. The top is suppressed around 381 in the short term. The market outlook can place short orders here. It is recommended to go long at 360-365 below and short at 380-385 above.