Binance 101 Issue 12｜Liu Fei: It is difficult for people to make money beyond what they know
Editor's Note: This article comes fromEditor's Note: This article comes fromBlock 101 (ID: BNB-2020)
, author Luna, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
On May 7, 2020, the Binance live broadcast program "Block 101" ushered in "Fei Ge", the mining tycoon who is most familiar with KTV in the currency circle, and the CEO of Bixin Mining. Liu Fei had a live conversation with Binance Luna, and he detailed His own mining "stepping on the pit road", talked about the halving market and investment experience. In the second half of the chat, he, wearing a red polo shirt, began to persuade everyone to learn more in the KTV at night in Beijing, and recommended got books...
About KTV: KTV is a good place, where you can quickly judge something, attitude towards money, gambling, drinking and sex. In the mining circle, everyone must drink desperately and pour each other down, so that we can see things that we usually can't see, and the efficiency is higher.
Regarding trading habits: 1. Do not add particularly high leverage. 2. Do a good job of managing the entire investment portfolio and set aside cash for life. 3. Use part of the money to quantify USDT, Bitcoin or US dollar standard to ensure the return.
About 3.12: Teams with poor control ability were killed. But everyone should pay attention to one thing, teams with particularly bad risk control have made a lot of money this time. Cut early without worry.
About the halving: After the halving, there will be a short-term drop, and then it will rise to 13,000, 4, and the trend after that wave depends on the international trend, including whether the Federal Reserve will print more, the situation of China's stable currency, etc.
Regarding investment: do a back-dial, as much as possible; ask more insiders and investors who have already invested. You can't trust the curves you see, and the curves you see may be fake. Selection criteria: 1. The full cycle as much as possible; 2. The strategy should be rich enough; 3. The R&D ability should be fast enough; 4. The risk control ability should be good.
Regarding advice: learn more and improve your cognition, you can't earn money beyond your cognition. There are many, many relationships in life. In the future, many things have nothing to do with the currency circle. Only you keep learning. People should invest in themselves the most, and only themselves are the most expensive. Recommended books: "Debt Crisis", "Principles".
Regarding mining: it is not recommended. I bought a mining machine, and the power supply is all second-hand. The transportation fee is high, and the transportation is very slow. Transformer, I didn’t dig anything for a month when I replaced the transformer. The transformer came, and I’ll tell you in two days that the power loss is 5%. How do you play with this thing? If the broken machine is not repaired for you, electricity is wasted every day, and there is no efficiency at all. You haven't encountered the whole mine being washed away by mudslides, and the machines are gone. The water pump pumps water in the river, the water level is too low and the water pump burns out, and the water pump cannot be bought in the whole world. Otherwise, the temperature is too low and the mining machine cannot be turned on, or the temperature is too high, or the computing power is shut down. There are 40 or 50 pits that I didn't think of at all, and there are still a lot of them.
first level title
The following is the interview record
Binance Luna: Hello everyone, I am Luna, and I am the key account manager of Binance VIP Department. Thank you very much for coming to the block 101 live interview today. The guest we invited today is Liu Fei, Brother Fei. Everyone has seen our poster. Our theme this time is Brother Fei chatting with us about the currency circle in KTV. Below we invite our host guest today, Liu Fei, CEO of Bixin Mining, Brother Fei.
Liu Fei: Hello, everyone. It is estimated that this is the only block 101 with guests on site during the epidemic.
Binance Luna: Yes, and in order to reassure everyone, we have taken our temperature before entering the door, and the epidemic prevention work has been done very well. We chose to do the live broadcast on KTV, why did we think of such a topic? At this time, I would like to ask a precise question on behalf of everyone, what kind of indissoluble bond does our currency circle have with KTV?
Liu Fei: When I first entered the currency circle, everyone always said a word, "Win the young model in the club, lose to work in the sea", including back then, "Don't talk about technical analysis with the old man. ". Everyone will have a deep-rooted feeling that the currency circle is naturally related to tender models. Everyone also saw that tender model coins were very popular at that time, and the first tender model coins. When I entered the circle at the beginning of 2017, it was really different from what I imagined. At that time, I was in charge of the entire major customer work at Huobi. It was also the first time in 2017 that I went to KTV with the most famous big V gang in the circle. After I went, it was very different from what I thought. There, when it was over, the young lady came and sat next to him. A very famous big guy in the circle put his hand like this, and kept touching his leg. What he touched was his own leg, and he didn't know where to put his hand.
Binance Luna: I'm nervous.
Liu Fei: Yes, everyone really didn’t go to any KTV at that time. In fact, it was after 1994 and after 1c0 started to go to KTV. At that time, people who were not from the currency circle went to KTV. At that time, they were all born in dicks, and the most famous VCs took us there. VCs have been watching projects, and they are used to going to KTV to chat, so they brought us to KTV to chat about projects. At the beginning, I didn’t say I liked those places. Everyone’s time is precious, and we can’t finish talking every day. I wanted to find a place where I could chat until two or three o’clock in the evening. After searching around, I found that there was nothing more suitable than KTV, so I went every day KTV meeting.
At that time, I had a very good relationship with the gang leader. The gang leader took me to Beijing circles, and he couldn't find a place to hold meetings. Every night, I held meetings at KTV, including traders. Once, what was particularly funny was that everyone was singing there, and suddenly the mobile phone alarm came, and there was a market, and all the quantitative traders on the far side immediately took out the very thick computers and put them on their laps. Work.
Binance Luna: Bring a computer to KTV.
Liu Fei: With a computer, there are market conditions that must be dealt with. A few of them sat in the corner and said that some people smashed the market and some others pulled the market, and they wanted to provide liquidity, which was very funny. I spend at least 5 to 6 days out of 7 days a week with the boss, all in KTV. Then every night it starts at about 9 o'clock, and I usually end at two o'clock. At that time, I had a total of 4 to 6 months, 3 KTV games a day, about 6 days a week, about 15 to 20 games, and it was like this for half a year.
Later, VC brought us in. We started to go to KTV to find a place to talk, and we found that KTV is a good place, because you find that it is very fast to judge something here. There are several hobbies in the currency circle: the first is to play Texas, and the second is to go to KTV. Because when you play Texas Hold'em at the poker table, you can see a person's nature and his attitude towards money. Gambling, drinking and women, especially can quickly see a person's performance. After some people drink alcohol, their whole performance is out of shape. What I especially admire up to now is Chen Guo. Brother Guo, from the busiest time in the whole circle to the very cold time, he went to KTV and was always alone. Talk about things over there, and go home when the time comes. So sometimes when you go to KTV, you can still see the character of many people. I have left this style until now. When I look at a team, I will try to talk about these aspects. Later, I started to like to go to KTV to judge these things, and I still do now. It's the same with mines, you don't know if that person is reliable or not, what should you do? Just go to the KTV to drink. Do you recognize you as a buddy, good wine and good character are probably okay, and what does it look like to be drunk, so when you are in the mining circle, everyone must drink hard and pour each other down, so that you can see some of the usual What you can't see is more efficient.
Binance Luna: In fact, I have said so much why we are talking about business in KTV, and it also highlights the hard work of this industry. The currency market is 7*24 hours, and people who do quantification and investment are very hard. Everyone finds a place to chat about business at 3 or 4 o'clock in the morning, and they don't want to make everyone nervous. Brother Fei, please introduce yourself within 5 minutes. After entering the currency circle, how did you go all the way to achieve your current achievements? What industry development process did you go through, and finally became the CEO of our currency mining industry?
Liu Fei: At that time, it was also a trend. My high school classmate was working as the CTO of Huobi. We were very close and came to me for dinner once or twice a week. Later, when it failed, we worked as a contractor for Baidu. The more we did it, the more boring it was, so he came to me and said, do you want to sell box lunches or do you want to change the world with me? It’s much better than you selling boxed lunches. I said I don’t understand Bitcoin, but he said it’s okay. It happened to be halved in 2016, so he came to stimulate me every week, and how much money went up, so I was fooled by him. Coins, including Jiawei, have also been kind to me, and there are many such people. I think there are still many pitfalls to be able to come through. When I went to Huobi, I was the person in charge of the organization, the key account manager.
Binance Luna: Brother Fei is a person very similar to me.
Liu Fei: On January 5, 2017, it plummeted from 8,800 points to more than 5,000 points. The central bank came to check and said that there were charges for those that were not charged. As a result, there was no liquidity and no users after the charge. At that time, they found me and asked me to solve the fluidity problem. I didn't know what to do, so I was forced to learn. They are the market maker system and market maker assessment. I just finished studying the documents of the market maker system, combined with the currency circle, and started looking for liquidity and market makers.
There was no such concept in the currency circle at that time, so I really called people one by one. After each market maker came, they accounted for 20% of the trading volume of the exchange. The current market maker should also have this amount. So I was forced to learn the whole market maker system, liquidity management, and quantification. Without users, I had to do traffic. After finally earning hundreds of millions of dollars a month, from earning a little money a year to earning hundreds of millions, the expansion is incredible. But at this time 94 came, and the persecution started all over again. At that time, 900 people traded on Huobi every day when it went online, and no one needed to find new people, restart the liquidity of currency transactions, and relearn the 1c0 project. In the past, only Bitcoin and Ethereum were new things. I saw more than a thousand projects in a year. At that time, I watched the projects every day and reviewed them every day. We were forced to have no choice. We went to Singapore again and were forced to internationalize.
When we stayed in Singapore, it was so hot that we didn’t want to live anymore, so we went to the United States again, and finally got better. As a result, the price of the coin fell to around 6,000, and the mining machine had reached the cost price, so everyone came to buy coins again. In less than two months, the currency price dropped from 8,000 to 3,500. A group of us increased leverage and invested 100 to 200 million yuan to buy mining machines. For example, I invested a dollar. After two months, people said that my dollar was gone. , still owed two dollars. I found that in this life, if I want to work part-time, I will not be able to get it for the rest of my life, and I will not be able to work part-time in this life, and I can only work. We can't help it, you have to know why you are losing money, so you are forced to learn mining. I feel that there are pitfalls along the way, and there are too many pitfalls. Fortunately, I didn't admit defeat in the end.
Binance Luna: Get up.
Liu Fei: In Nietzsche's words, whatever doesn't kill you will make you stronger, anyway, that's how it's been for so many years.
Binance Luna: I think the experience of Brother Fei is also a microcosm of many bigwigs in the currency circle. Later, let's Brother Fei talk about some serious professional issues. In addition to our mining machine business, Bixin has also invested in many quantitative institutions. How do we ordinary people choose a good quantitative team? What kind of criteria do you have after seeing so many teams?
Liu Fei: We actually invested in quantification. One of the more sad things after the investment was that the market makers were short of money at that time. Without money, they could not increase their liquidity. Obviously, after giving them money, they can not only contribute to the transaction fee of the exchange , and he can still share the money with this money, and the handling fee is more, I can still share it, why not do it? I just want to vote for them.
I invested in a total of two teams, but was stopped by Li Ning, saying that you can earn tens of millions a year by doing this thing, and if you do it well for a month, you can earn an extra 100 million. Because the exchange makes too much money, we didn’t even look down on the trivial business at the beginning, which was a small goal in our life. Although I have been working for so long, I still step on the pit.
When I first started in January 2019, it was very difficult. I invested in some trend-matched stocks. The internal exchange just came out, and I didn’t have good rates on Huobi, OK, and Binance. In fact, I know everyone very well, and everyone can save face, but they still can’t get the top rate, so arbitrage can’t run away.
Because the president’s request is that the money should not be invested in others, but should be run in his own account, because too many quantitative teams actually managed the coins poorly and the coins were stolen. They have seen too many such things. At that time, I had no way to invest in CTA. It was a very good thing throughout 2018. Later, when plustoken came, I didn’t make any money at all. The model of this market is changing, and it was pretty good at that time. I hope that the strategy has a full cycle, and it is best if the team has a good background. It used to be that there were one or two strategies in the currency circle, but now it is no longer possible. There must be a combination of strategies, and now I often ask, how are your strategies related? How long does it take you to develop a new strategy?
I invested in a team last year with a very good AI strategy. I made 30% and 40% in the first month when I invested, and I made 70% and 80% in a month before I voted. I invested 30%, 40%, annualized 30%, 40%, and I earned 30% in the first month, which is not annualized. In the second month, it is basically a little bit, and in the third month it will be invalid. So now the failure is very fast. It is not like before. The domestic teams are still in the era of cold weapons. Last year, Wall Street teams came in, especially tower research capital and jump trading) They are really powerful.
Now investing in the quantitative team, their income is in the form of the law of interest rates. The first is extremely high, and the second and third are only 30% of the first. It will get worse and worse in the future. So you can only vote for the best. This circle enters, and basically it will be earned by those teams on Wall Street and the City of London.
So when I look at the team now, I may all look at foreign teams. My first point is that they are as full cycle as possible. The second point is to expect their strategies to be rich enough; the third point is to have fast enough R&D capabilities; the fourth point is to have good risk control capabilities. This time, teams with poor risk control capabilities on 3.12 and 3.13 were killed. But everyone should pay attention to one thing, teams with particularly bad risk control have made a lot of money this time.
Binance Luna: Why?
Liu Fei: Because I cut it early, I don't worry about it. For example, 5 times and 10 times the liquidation is very early, and the liquidation is unilaterally deadlifted, and they continue to drop, but they make a lot of money instead. So you can't see whether the 3.12 makes money or not, or just invest. 3.12 Many teams have made a lot of money because of poor risk control. This is really something to pay attention to.
Binance Luna: This is quite professional. I saw a friend asking, can the coins of plustoken be recovered?
Liu Fei: No, if you can see the blockchain transfer, it still goes to a mainstream exchange. How did you get there? There are still some public security departments that have dealt with it, but I don't know whether investors can get it or not.
Binance Luna: For novice users who are faced with a variety of quantitative teams, is there any simple advice on how to avoid pitfalls?
Liu Fei: Don't talk about Xiaobai, people in our circle are very difficult. The first point is that you can only do background research. It has been in this circle for a long time, has seen long enough risk events, and has seen many market scenarios. I have seen too many teams come in for three to six months and start to borrow money, and they are taken away after a wave of market, so it needs to be long enough.
The second point is to do background research, in fact, to ask as much as possible: Which of your well-known investors have invested in you? After I know, I will recite the tune and ask how it is. What he told me was very, very different from what he actually said, as often happens. Once a certain team, the boss came to me, Brother Fei, this team is very good, the due diligence curve is very beautiful, what do you think of this team?
I said that when I was doing due diligence, his risk control was not passed, and their risk control was very problematic. They actually become very subjective. (President) said that you think the rate of return is too high, this must be very good. I found that I couldn’t persuade you no matter how hard I tried, and then I suddenly remembered that I had pulled Yuan Hao into a group, and I said: I’ve heard that you voted for it when I recited the tune, and I’m embarrassed to ask you, but this time the leader voted. I don't know how you tell me. In the end, Yuan Hao said that he was actually a liar, and the picture was all fake, and he lost money to us in a mess, and he still owes us money. You can't trust the curves you see, and the curves you see may be fake.
They have to invest for a long time, and at least they have to be well-known in the currency circle; you have to ask a few people in the currency circle to be responsible for your own money.
Binance Luna: We still make more friends in the currency circle, and the information we can get from others is the most intuitive. Our next topic is that Feige is mainly engaged in mining machines and mining business. Although I am a practitioner, I also feel that the content of mining is relatively remote from me. Then how far do you think mining is from retail investors?
Liu Fei: I came to mine and entered this pit. It should be a typical incident encountered by a novice user who came to mine. After I started working as a professional, according to (A Baonong) Lao Cai’s evaluation of us, I have seen unlucky mining in so many years, but I have never seen you so unlucky. come across.
Last year, Biyin and Bixin held a new mining era summit in Sichuan. Many friends wanted to buy mining machines, but I persuaded them. At that time, I asked Liu Hai to talk about 40 or 50 mining pits. We talked so much After listening to the pit, I don’t want to dig it anymore. I bought the mining machine and the rest will not be controlled by you.
For example, when we bought a mining machine, for example, the power supply provided to us is all second-hand. The entire transportation fee is high, and the transportation is very slow. The transformer blew up in a week, and I went to order the transformer again. I didn’t dig anything for a month to replace the transformer. The transformer came. I will tell you in two days that the power loss is 5%. If the broken machine is not repaired for you, electricity is wasted every day, and there is no efficiency at all.
Anyway, there are so many details of this kind. You haven’t encountered the whole mine being washed away by mudslides, and the machines are gone. The water pump pumps water in the river, the water level is too low and the water pump burns out, and the water pump cannot be bought in the whole world. Otherwise, the temperature is too low, the mining machine cannot be turned on, or the temperature is too high, or the computing power is shut down, and there are pits that I can't think of. I have logged 40 or 50 pits, and there are still a lot of pits. .
I especially don't recommend it.
The first point is that the renting of computing power is a special pit. When renting computing power, it is calculated. If there is a real market, the mining machine is also valuable. Sorry, you rent it. The mining machine belongs to others. Are you If you can't make much money, it is really inappropriate to rent a mining machine.
The second point is that things like power outages are not responsible anyway. For example, delaying a deadline is a terrible pitfall.
The third point is that the electricity cost is very high. Like us, Bixin also makes budgets. There are a lot of formulas on it. What is the cost of each item? I will write everything down for you when the internet is disconnected for a few days, how much is the electricity bill.
Even if you have an insurance policy after stopping, it will be reliable. The new mining machine in the currency circle is always yours. If you don’t pay back the capital, they don’t charge commission. If you collect the capital after you pay back, there are a lot of tricks, so it’s too difficult for retail investors to mine coins, and it’s full of blood and tears. History, you must be mentally prepared when you come in to mine.
I hope that in fact, everyone can buy coins, buy spot, and exercise their mentality to hold it. But many people must ask why so many people want everyone to buy coins, and why so many people are willing to mine. Let me give you an example. I said that today it reaches 9500. Do you want to sell it or hold it? Suppose we reach 10,000 by the time of halving, and after the halving, it will start to fall, and it will fall below 8,000 to 7,000. Would you still take it? Are you trying to sell? You really can’t hold it, you can’t hold it when you have a wave of 3,800, and how many people sell it when it’s more than 5,000. In the early morning of March 13 that night, I chatted with another good friend until three o'clock. At 5800, I bought more than 70 million yuan in bitcoin. We decided at that time that it might continue to fall below 4,000, or it might not fall. When he kept half of the money and it was less than 4000, he went in and bought another 100 million. If he was in this position, there should be a high probability that he would have no problem raising it. As a result, when he reached 6000 in the first wave, it was almost 5900. He thought it was lower than that line, and he sold it all at 5900. He couldn't hold it, and then told me that it was not bad, earning 25 million.
Even if we analyze it well, we can't hold it. Later, when it reached 7000, everyone shook up and down, and everyone threw them away if they couldn't hold it, which was against human nature. There is a characteristic of mining. You buy a mining machine and you are locked up like me. If you are locked up, you are forced to hold it. Many people have made money because they were forced to hold it. So many people say that, you have to mine . Because most people can’t handle it mentally, so I tell you to mine. With the mining machine, you can do a lot of anti-human things, and finally make money.
So if you think your mind is very mature, I suggest you buy the goods directly and hold them in stock. If your mind is immature, you will find that you are like leeks. You should find some more conscientious surplus computing power to buy, and you can make some money instead.
Binance Luna: Brother Fei really used his history of blood and tears to warn everyone what should be paid attention to. Just now I mentioned that mining requires strong capital and resource capabilities. Finding stores and mining resources is very complicated. We know that miners have Many financial products continue to be derived. What kind of financial products do you think are suitable for some miners at this stage?
Liu Fei: How many words do miners hear about financial products? The scalp is numb and the liver is trembling. In the past, the miners had managed to get the coins these years, why? It was really on 3.12 that the coins that too many miners had accumulated for many years were wiped out at once. There are really too many mines like this.
On 3.12, I quickly called everywhere to make up the security deposit. It was hard to make up the security deposit with seven borrowings and eight borrowings. Then on 3.13, it fell again, and then it all exploded. That bottom can be compared to the bottom of 900 RMB in 2014, which cut off all the hard-headed leeks in these years. Originally, if these leeks did not have these financial products, they would never be cut off if they did not add leverage, and you would never be cut off if you took the spot.
Just like two days ago, a very good buddy of mine told me that after 9000, the price has not changed, and the assets have been halved. This is really the case. I think that financial products should not be leveraged casually. You can’t hold it when you add leverage. Everyone usually uses currency loans and hedging. We usually use options. I prefer to call options insurance. You pay a certain insurance premium to determine the future. It is more appropriate to call personal insurance to collect your money at a certain price. These things exist in the currency circle. Now the currency circle has already done everything that is done in traditional finance. Now the currency circle derivatives are very powerful, including you do customized, you do swap, customized, you can find me, I can do it .
Although you come to me and I can make money, I still don’t recommend you to do it. If you have to do it, I really recommend that you start using some non-linear products now. You can use some options, options You may not use it, so find something that can help you. You pay a 5% option fee to ensure that you buy a put option. When it really falls, you lose 5% of your money. exploded. Or if you do mining yourself and want to increase your income, you can sell call options, and you will earn more option fees. If you make non-linear products, you need too much margin to make linear products, which is too inappropriate.
So I hope that everyone still has greater option leverage, but it is non-linear, and you can lose that much at most. I really saw too many people. This currency loan is too miserable. We think that you are a miner, you are an industry, you are not here to play financial products, you don’t understand how leverage is added later, and you don’t understand hedging How to hedge, you don't understand how these are done. So once you do these things, if you enter an industry you don't understand, there is a high probability that you will be cut off.
Financial derivatives have their own uses and cannot always be used as gambling tools. Traditional finance is like this, generally selling call options and buying put options, which is what institutions do. Selling is done by institutions, because they are bearish on volatility, and buying is for gambling. Isn’t traditional finance cutting leeks? Aren't those people in traditional finance gambling? In fact, the same, no difference.
Binance Luna: Brother Fei is telling the truth. Brother Fei is also a practitioner and also has various financial businesses. He did give everyone a piece of advice. You don’t understand this thing, and you don’t know the leverage behind it. , You don’t believe in the propaganda, you have to understand the principles behind it, and really use these things as your risk control or a tool for hedging. I think Bixin is indeed a very trustworthy partner for everyone. As for the option business mentioned by Brother Fei, our Binance has also launched the option function, so friends like retail investors can also understand that it is basically an option business. With a small fee to let you buy an option order, your profit can be magnified.
We have almost talked about the mining business here, and finally came to the halving market that everyone is most concerned about. The halving has already counted down. Have you set the alarm clock? The halving happens every four years. I don’t know that Fei Ge was halved last time Haven't entered the circle yet?
Liu Fei: I was preparing to join the halving last time. At that time, I was interviewing at Huobi.
Binance Luna: Do you still have any impression of the last halving market? How do you think it is different from today four years ago, and when you came into contact with Huobi, what did they think of the halving market?
Liu Fei: Everyone thinks that the people on the exchange know more. When I was at Huobi, I was in charge of all the data of Huobi. When I was at Huobi, there were about 7 groups, including data, user operations, communities, and the entire Traffic, including app and mall traffic delivery, as well as the liquidity management of the entire exchange, market makers, experience, and data are useless. You still can’t understand the data. If you want to understand the data, you must understand these Knowledge, if you put this data today, you can really understand it. I am in Huobi, and those big players approached one of my managers and said that you give me the leverage data every day, and I will give you a suite in Beijing. Really so. You have to be able to understand it, otherwise it is useless to take that data.
Speaking of the halving four years ago, in fact, to be honest, everyone was very excited before the halving, and there was a market for halving. But bitfinex exploded, and bitfinex fell down when it was stolen. It's the same as this time, everyone has no confidence in it, and they all feel that this thing, Bitcoin, is dead, and everyone's reaction is the same as that of 3.12 and 3.13.
The first point is that everyone can look at the K-line, which requires a process of deleveraging. Without deleveraging, it is difficult to get behind, because the car is too heavy to be rolled over.
The second point is that there will be a market before the halving, but after the halving, there is a little bit of expectation. Stocks often say that all the good things are bad, and the little bit after the halving, including this time, is actually bearish. Including a lot of miners will choose, after the halving, he may sell the coins and take out this year's electricity bill, there will be a staged position. But can it rise in the long run? When Bitcoin was halved in 2012, after the halving, it should be in December 2012. After the halving and the first wave of rise, it fell down. How did it fall and how did it get there? 8800 RMB? At that time, Cyprus had a European debt crisis, and the Cyprus government said that it would charge a tax on bank deposit accounts, a deposit tax. Everyone sees that things can not be controlled by the government, can not be checked by the government, and then they discover Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was very light, and it rose immediately.
In 2017, it was the wave of RMB. We fell from more than 8,000. There was a wave before the halving, and there was another wave after the halving, two waves. It fell from 8800 to more than 5000. Everyone thinks that people in all the currency circles in China are bearish. Who is buying at that time? At that time, it was Japan's nuclear pollution. But Japan was not the most fierce. At that time, Koreans were buying. How far were the Koreans at that time? The value of Bitcoin in China and South Korea differs by 30%, about half a year.
When I was in high school, I still remember that it was 20,000 yuan in China and 30,000 yuan in South Korea. People said that you buy bitcoins for 20,000 yuan in China, and you get 30,000 yuan in South Korea. There are many people in that group After earning money, its money earns 30% every day. Think about multiplying 1.3 by the 180th power of brackets. What kind of concept is this? So I met a lot of people, ranging from hundreds of thousands to over 100 million. . This is also a halving, and it must be event-driven.
The same is true for this halving. First, has deleveraging been done? Done, the lever went clean. Some people in the currency circle have a very good sense of the market, and they may be able to affect the market by a large margin or something.
As for what will happen after halving? My own opinion is that there will be a small wave of decline after halving, because indeed at that time, there will be selling orders, and there will be a wave of decline, but I don’t think the decline will last for a long time.
The first point is that after halving itself, many miners have to sell their hedging electricity fees, sell their own coins, and take out the electricity fees. The second point is that the big V has more influence than me. Their influence will affect many people. At that point, they will really sell short. After the halving, it will really fall for a while, but after that I think it is There may be a wave of sharp rises, and then it can reach 13,000 or 14,000. What will happen after this wave of sharp rises depends on how the entire economic cycle will behave and whether there are geopolitical conflicts. I will compare this time Optimistic, this time the Fed's unlimited release of water.
When everyone is very fanatical, you must be afraid. There are still many indicators. I hope you will learn more. It is difficult to earn money beyond your knowledge. I don’t understand it at Huobi. I only gradually understood after doing mining. What will happen after the wave depends on the international trend, whether the Fed is desperately printing money, and the situation of China's stable currency.
Look at the housing prices, the housing prices have already started to rise. When printing money desperately, the money has become hairy, and asset allocation is needed. The price increase of assets is a low-risk asset. Later, everyone chases high-risk assets to end. Digital currency is still a high-risk currency, and the overall rise of high-risk currencies will be relatively high. On these fronts, I'm bullish on the market.
I am not talking about it today, just like the house price looks at the houses in the core area and the school district, not the third and fourth lines.
Binance Luna: I am a leek novice. At this time, we are still short. What else can we do? Can we open contracts or buy options?
Liu Fei: How about this piece? In fact, it is quite difficult, and it has something to do with trading habits. I share how I might do it. The first point is not to add a particularly high leverage. After increasing the leverage, you will not be calm. I used (Xiao Yi) teacher’s words, he said that only those who can make money in the currency circle have cash flow outside the currency circle, and he can hold the currency. Because you will find it very strange that when you need money most when you fall, you buy and sell coins at a low price, and then you chase after the rise when it rises. You must have cash flow before you can hold coins.
The second point is that you have to do a good job in the management of the entire investment portfolio. I want to keep a part of the cash, which is used by my family, my parents, and various situations. You can’t stud this part of the money. After you stud, you will find that the more money you need in your family, the more money you will lose when the currency price falls. So you must give yourself daily expenses, and keep the money that the family gave to your parents and the money you have for yourself. The other part of the money is not all coins. Now part of my money is quantified in USDT or US dollar standard, and the annual growth rate of 10% to 20% is not bad.
The other part is Bitcoin. I also do quantification, and it continues to grow. I said this to myself, Bitcoin has returned to zero, and I get half of the money, and the quantification related to transactions and Bitcoin, 20% of it rolls over every year for several years, and earns that money back in 4 years, if Bitcoin The future has really risen to the sky, and I have changed my own situation. It is more about asset allocation. Why should I keep money?
You will find the human economic cycle, whether it was in 2008 or the Internet bubble, we all said that capitalism has economic cycles and economic crises when we were young, and you will find that when you use this money to buy the bottom, you pursue 20% or 30% a year When the price rises, you might as well copy the bottom in case of an economic crisis and make several times at once. You must keep some of the money. That money will not be left there for nothing. It will be very large when it comes. You ensure a good cash flow. , your life, and then invest in digital currency, in this way you will be more calm.
Investing in ourselves has a standard judgment, is your leverage too high or is your position heavy enough? Can you sleep at night? If you sleep upside down and don’t think about the position, it means that your investment position is okay. If you find that you dare not sleep today, if you close your eyes today, you are afraid that your position will be liquidated tomorrow. Lower your leverage. When something goes wrong, when you talk to others or your parents, you will find that you are very aggressive, and your whole mentality has changed. Low leverage, low leverage, use the investment portfolio as much as possible to make money.
Binance Luna: Okay, thank you, thank you very much Fei Ge for your guidance to our novice users. Everyone says stud, selling houses to buy coins, from the perspective of risk, there may be a chance to get rich, or it may return to zero. Fei Brother keeps the cash flow, and there are some different allocations on various assets, so you can sleep peacefully every day. Some netizens said that the contract is not too late, and the leverage should be reduced. Do you have any questions now?
Liu Fei: Including my own experience, to learn more, people in the circle generally recommend more "Debt Crisis" and "Principles". I just mentioned that life is more important. There are many principles of life written there, and how to live your life well. You can't make a lot of money and have a bad life all your life, read some books on these aspects.
Again, it's hard to make money beyond what you know. Without this awareness, even with money, there are a hundred ways to live that will reap you. You want to live your life as well as possible.
Learn more, you know where it is, there are many, many relationships in life, many things in the future have nothing to do with the currency circle, only you keep learning, people should invest in themselves, only themselves are the most expensive, my example, I used to work in the military industry, inertial navigation, including J-20, including many missiles, including rocket-propelled nuclear submarines, and then changed careers.
If you have no choice, you can’t make much money by going to a state-owned enterprise. You will find that finance makes money the fastest, but the characteristic of doing finance is that it is typical to make money by cognition. Therefore, I hope that everyone will live a good life. It is not worth living a bad life for a lifetime. Read more books to recharge yourself, and you will definitely have a chance in 30 years of your life.
Binance Luna: I think opportunities are always there, and they are all waiting for those who are prepared. There are so many ups and downs in the currency circle. Brother Fei wants to convey a spirit to everyone. Money is not the most important thing in life. The most important thing, we end up living our lives well.
Then our live broadcast today is almost coming to an end, Brother Fei, what else would you like to say.
Liu Fei: Special thanks to Binance for organizing this live broadcast, and to all the viewers and friends who watched the live broadcast, and also to our Miss Luna, who is a very good host. I just flew back from Sanya yesterday to host this live broadcast, thank you very much.
Binance Luna: Some of our viewers said that it feels very good today. Does Brother Fei have a Weibo, so that it is convenient to communicate with you in the future.
Liu Fei: No.
