Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations

Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.

The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.

In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.

On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.

Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.

The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.

In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)