The "Trump Paradox" of the Midterm Elections: The Stronger He Gets, the More Dangerous It Is for the GOP

Original title: The Trump paradox: What's good for him is weighing down his party

Original author: the Washington Post

Original translation: Peggy

Editor's note: Trump's political paradox is becoming increasingly clear: his approval rating among national voters continues to decline, yet his dominance within the Republican Party is growing stronger.

The core of this discussion is not whether Trump can still influence the Republican Party, but how this influence is reshaping the party's electoral prospects. On one hand, he forces party candidates to pledge allegiance through endorsements, primary challenges, and political purges. On the other hand, this political screening centered on personal loyalty may weaken the Republican Party's competitiveness in the general election.

From Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy to the Indiana state senator and Texas senator primaries, Trump's "revenge politics" is continuously proving his ability to mobilize the Republican base. But the problem is that winning a primary does not equate to winning a general election. For the Republican Party, the real risk is not that Trump cannot control the party, but that the deeper his control, the narrower the party's space may become among independent and moderate voters.

What is more noteworthy is that Trump's strong hand has not translated into effective legislative capability. On issues such as the gas tax, voting legislation, immigration funding, and military action in Iran, there remains a clear tension between him and congressional Republicans. This means Trump can force party members to pledge loyalty, yet he may not be able to compel them to bear the full cost of his political agenda.

Trump has built a party highly loyal to him. Even if his executive actions anger the broader public, the Republican Party chooses to follow. This political structure, instead, weakens his influence among voters outside his base.

For the midterm elections, the biggest variable currently facing the Republican Party may not be the Democrats, but Trump himself. For Trump, victories in primaries are consolidating his authority within the party; but for the Republican Party, this victory may also be pushing it towards a harder-to-win general election.

Below is the original text:

President Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn of the White House after arriving aboard Marine One on Friday. (Eric Lee/Pool/The Washington Post)

President Donald Trump does not believe in the so-called "law of political gravity."

Nationally, the more his popularity slides—multiple polls show his approval ratings nearing historic lows—the more he tightly binds the Republican Party to his will, and through a series of unpopular, even blatant actions, endangers the prospects of this subservient party in the fall elections.

The result is a president who demands political loyalty within his party with near-historic intensity, yet his frequent executive actions continually alienate the broader public. This paradox makes him increasingly unwilling and less able to push through Congress the issues voters care about most. And it is a cycle Trump seems both unwilling and unable to break.

On Tuesday, Trump claimed one of his most coveted "trophies": Libertarian-leaning Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was ousted. The eight-term congressman was one of the most prominent Republican critics of Trump in the House and had led efforts to publicly release government documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump initially opposed the ouster, only changing course when he realized he could not stop it.

Massie was soundly defeated in the primary by a little-known political newcomer and former Navy SEAL, Ed Galreyn, whom Trump personally selected and backed with tens of millions of dollars from Trump-allied organizations.

Three days before Massie's defeat, Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy also lost. Trump had called Cassidy "very disloyal." Five years ago, Cassidy voted to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Although the senator has since tried, often awkwardly, to mend fences with Trump, he ultimately failed to even make it to the runoff.

Earlier this month, Trump's "revenge tour" swept through Indiana. Republican voters heeded his call, ousting five of seven state senators who had refused to redraw the state's congressional districts as Trump demanded. One race remains undecided, with the latest count showing only two votes separating the candidates.

On Tuesday, Trump flexed his political muscle again: In the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, he endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The move frustrated many Republicans on Capitol Hill, who view Cornyn as a more electable general election candidate; if Paxton wins, the party may have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in this deep red state just to ensure its candidate's victory—funds that might otherwise be needed to support candidates elsewhere.

But as is often the case, Trump made it clear that the decision was personal, not tactical or policy-driven. Cornyn has occasionally criticized Trump in the past, though he has recently tried hard to curry favor, even proposing a bill to name one of America's longest highways after Trump.

It didn't work. In a social media post endorsing Paxton, Trump wrote: "John Cornyn is a good man, and I have enjoyed working with him, but he did not support me when I was going through a difficult time."

"I actually think MAGA has never been this united," Trump told reporters Tuesday. But if the Republican Party wants to maintain control of Congress in the fall elections, it must also win over a significant portion of other voters. And in Trump's view, this election is about his own political survival.

"You have to win the midterms," he told a retreat of House Republicans in January. "Because if we don't win the midterms, then it becomes—I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll be impeached."

For now, however, the biggest drag on the Republican Party's ability to hold onto its narrow majorities in the House and Senate is Trump himself. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, released Monday, is just the latest example: the public strongly disapproves of Trump's handling of the war in Iran and his approach to the cost of living. Even on immigration, his strongest issue, Trump's approval rating trails by 15 percentage points.

Among key independent voters, Trump's approval rating has fallen to 26%. 47% of respondents said his policies have hurt them, up from 41% last fall. And perhaps the most alarming poll number for Republicans: Democratic voters report higher enthusiasm this year, and Democrats lead by 11 percentage points in the hypothetical "If the election were held today, which party would you vote for?" question.

Meanwhile, even Republicans are uneasy about some of Trump's recent attention-grabbing actions. These include his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS earlier this year over leaked tax returns, which he subsequently settled.

The agreement will establish a taxpayer-funded $1.8 billion compensation fund for those who claim they, like Trump, have been persecuted by a "politicized justice system." Beneficiaries are likely to include some individuals charged for their violent roles in the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, when Trump supporters attempted to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss.

"I'm not a big supporter," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Tuesday when asked about the fund.

Democrats were more direct.

"This corruption has never been so naked, and it has never been so widespread," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) at a hearing attended by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. "But what's happening now is: you write the check, and Trump and his cronies cash it. And American taxpayers, already squeezed by high prices, will foot the bill."

Under the settlement, Trump and his sons are barred from personally receiving payments from the so-called "anti-weaponization" fund. However, the IRS will also be "permanently barred and excluded" from collecting any unpaid taxes owed by Trump, his family members, or his businesses that accrued before the settlement was reached.

Despite Trump's assertiveness in unilateral executive actions, his political weakness also undermines his influence to advance his agenda through the legislative branch. Much of his agenda is currently stalled in Congress.

Neither Thune nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has embraced Trump's call to suspend the federal gas tax. The Senate has also resisted his demand to end the filibuster. Trump wanted to use this to push his high-priority "Saving America Act," which includes a provision requiring people to prove their citizenship when registering to vote. Trump calls the bill essential for election security, but opponents argue it would lead to voter suppression.

Another recent point of frustration for Trump was when a Senate rules adviser refused to allow the insertion of hundreds of millions of dollars for security costs for his highly unpopular White House ballroom project into a pending immigration enforcement funding bill.

For Trump, there may also be a shadow lurking behind the "golden halo" that comes from defeating incumbent Republicans. These incumbents will remain in office until January and will likely fear him less.

On Tuesday, just after losing his primary, Cassidy made a public act of defiance: he voted for the first time to advance a resolution blocking Trump from continuing to order attacks on Iran.

"In Louisiana, I have heard the concerns of many, including supporters of President Trump, who are worried about this war," Cassidy said in a statement.

In an interview with The Washington Post in February, Massie said: "I have some colleagues who are just waiting for their primary to pass before they start developing more independent voices."

Given the current situation, for their own political survival, they may have to.

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