Analysis: Fed Rate Cut Timing Remains a "Black Box," Energy Shocks May Consume Easing Room

Odaily News Recently, inflation and employment data have shown moderation, reducing the Fed's urgency to cut rates. Analysis suggests the timing of a Fed rate cut remains a "black box." Simultaneously, the US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy prices, increasing the risk of a short-term inflation rebound and amplifying uncertainty around the future inflation path. This further complicates the Fed's decision-making. Keeping rates unchanged is now a foregone conclusion, with market focus shifting to the room and timing for potential cuts. However, energy disruptions introduce new variables to the economic outlook, and internal Fed divisions may influence the easing path within the year. (Jin10)