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Viewpoint: The market overestimates the Fed's interest rate cut prospects, and US short-term interest rates face rising risks
3hours ago

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Kevin Thozet, a member of the Capital Economics Investment Committee, stated in a report that short-term U.S. interest rates face rising risks. He pointed out that the market is overconfident in the prospects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. The U.S. money market has already priced in at least two rate cuts this year, reflecting market expectations that the U.S. economy and inflation will show further signs of slowing. Thozet said: "Given the resilience of the U.S. economy, policy uncertainty, and the persistence of inflationary pressures, we believe this expectation is too high." He added that the trend of long-term U.S. Treasury yields is more balanced. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at 4.300%, is expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 50 basis points above and below its current level. (Jinshi P)