QCP: Bitcoin volatility now favors bearish options until April, reflecting lack of upside catalysts

Odaily News QCP Capital posted on its official channel that following the DeepSeek operation two weeks ago and the tariff-driven volatility last week, this time, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, which briefly disturbed the market before Powell's testimony and the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The tariffs put last week’s temporary delay in doubt, threatening to reignite trade tensions, as Mexico and Canada are among the top three suppliers to the U.S. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s comments about possible sanctions on Japan — a key U.S. ally — came on the heels of a White House move to block Japanese steel companies from buying U.S. steel.
Commodity prices were broadly unchanged, while Asian stocks fell and Bitcoin briefly dipped to $95,000 before rebounding — suggesting this was a sentiment-driven market move rather than a fundamental change in risk appetite. Bitcoin volatility is now skewed towards the put side until April, reflecting a lack of catalysts for gains.
A feedback loop is emerging - President Trump is highly sensitive to market reactions and faces increasing market skepticism about his stance. This could further encourage him and increase market volatility.