就差临门一脚，Clarity法案到底卡在哪了？

Original by Odaily （@OdailyChina）

Author: Azuma（@azuma_eth）

With only a few working days left before the U.S. Congress enters its summer recess (expected to begin August 7), time is running out for the "Digital Asset Market Structure Act" (hereinafter referred to as the Clarity Act) to pass through the Senate.

Last week, the White House agreed to include an "ethics provision" in the Clarity Act aimed at restricting the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and other federal officials from profiting from digital assets while in office. This move was widely interpreted by the market as a sign of compromise from Trump and the Republican Party, indicating a willingness to reach a consensus with Democratic senators on the remaining major point of contention regarding ethical issues.

However, as the details of the Clarity Act amendments were released, the market discovered the situation was far more complex than initially thought.

Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn wrote over the weekend that the Clarity Act has reached the "one-yard line." Like in American football, this last yard can be the toughest on the field, representing a political battle where every inch is contested… Given the limited time remaining and the strong opposition from Democratic negotiators to the current wording of the ethics provisions, he has downgraded the probability of the bill being enacted in 2026 to 30%.

Major Disagreement Lies in the Details of the Ethics Provision

In his post, Alex Thorn summarized that the Clarity Act currently faces disagreements on various fronts, including developer protections, DeFi regulatory boundaries, restrictions on stablecoin yields, the CFTC registration mechanism, and newly added enforcement provisions.

However, the prevailing market consensus is that the biggest obstacle truly hindering the bill's progress remains the ethics provision, which was previously interpreted as an area where Trump and the GOP were willing to concede.

According to the latest Senate manager's amendment, the Clarity Act spans 616 pages. The newly added ethics-related content primarily aims to restrict the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and other senior federal officials from engaging in digital asset-related activities. This includes prohibiting these officials and their spouses from issuing or promoting digital assets while in office, restricting such assets from being listed on regulated platforms, requiring disclosure of interests, and introducing a blind trust mechanism. Furthermore, the provision stipulates that enforcement authority lies with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and will automatically expire on January 20, 2029, the end of Trump's term.

The issue is that Democrats believe the current version of the ethics provision still has significant shortcomings.

• First, Democrats argue that vesting enforcement power solely with the DOJ lacks sufficient independence. Since the DOJ is part of the executive branch, and the current Acting Attorney General, Todd Blanche, also previously served as Trump's personal attorney, the effectiveness of internal oversight is questionable when the restrictions involve the President or senior executive officials. Therefore, Democrats demand that enforcement authority be given to the Inspectors General.
• Second, the clause for automatic expiration in 2029 has also drawn strong criticism from Democrats. This timeline precisely coincides with the end of Trump's current presidential term, meaning that after Trump leaves office, there would be no legal basis for future authorities to investigate his past actions. Democrats argue that if the Clarity Act aims to establish a long-term regulatory framework for digital assets, ethical standards should be a permanent fixture, not one that terminates upon the end of Trump's term.
• Additionally, Democrats are concerned that the scope of the current restrictions is still too limited. The current version primarily targets direct actions like issuing or promoting digital assets but does not clearly restrict indirect participation in crypto-related profits through affiliated companies, family members, or other means. Especially considering that several of Trump's sons are deeply involved in the cryptocurrency industry, doubts remain about whether the current version's coverage is adequate.

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, a consistently harsh critic of the bill, condemned the "DOJ-only enforcement" mechanism in the ethics provisions through an official statement last week, claiming the bill "should be voted down on arrival."

More impactful for vote counting, seven Democratic senators who have been negotiating with Republicans (Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Raphael Warnock) issued a joint statement stating that the current text "falls short."

As for the Republican side, there seems to be no immediate sign of further concession in the face of strong Democratic opposition. White House Executive Director of the Digital Assets Advisory Council, Patrick Witt, responded firmly, stating that the President has already made a historic concession, yet the Democrats are still unsatisfied — "You can’t hit two home runs with one swing."

How Much Time is Left in the Window?

Early this morning, Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Clarity Act would be temporarily set aside to prioritize the confirmation of government officials and the sanctions bill against Russia. Additionally, the Senate's schedule this week will be further compressed due to Tuesday and Wednesday being occupied by the funeral of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.

This means that the available time for advancing the Clarity Act before the summer recess has been further squeezed. Current market expectations are that the Clarity Act might not see a vote until as late as next week, the final few days before the Senate recess.

Former Senate staffer Anne Kelley also posted on X today, stating that under Senate rules, once a cloture motion is filed on a significant and controversial bill, that bill becomes the Senate's pending business — making it difficult for the Senate to simultaneously advance another major controversial bill until amendments are processed, a second cloture motion is filed, and up to 30 hours of post-cloture debate are completed.

This implies that the Clarity Act not only needs to resolve its internal disagreements in a timely manner but also must compete with other contentious bills like the Russia sanctions bill, the budget bill, and the SAVE Act for the very limited Senate floor time available.

This is why, despite market hopes that the Clarity Act could pass before the recess, an increasing number of Washington observers are lowering their expectations.

For the crypto industry, this long legislative battle has now entered its final phase. The regulatory framework is within "one yard of the goal line," but whether that final push will happen in the coming days or be delayed indefinitely will soon be revealed.