专访PPP：世界杯引爆预测市场，如何找到“可复制的聪明钱”？

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

As the World Cup heats up, the prediction market has witnessed an unprecedented surge in data volume.

Match outcomes, advancement probabilities, championship odds, Golden Boot rankings... Massive amounts of capital are now engaging in fervent speculation within the prediction market, pushing trading volumes and user participation to all-time highs. However, amidst this frenzy, most average users face an awkward reality — staring at a screen full of fluctuating odds, unsure how to operate for sustained profitability.

In search of profitable certainty, many users track "smart money" movements on social media or news platforms. Yet in reality, this "wait for a signal, then manually copy trade" approach easily falls into passivity. Because probabilities in prediction markets fluctuate in real-time, opportunity costs can vanish in an instant, making manual operations unable to keep pace.

To address this, some users have started turning their attention to common copy-trading tools on the market, which conceal a more insidious "smart money trap." Many tools only use "total profit" or "recent win rate" as a single criterion to display so-called smart money addresses. Users see these "masters" flaunting multimillion-dollar profits and blindly follow, only to end up with losses once they enter.

"Not all profitable addresses are suitable for copy trading."

When discussing the reasons behind this situation, we recently came into contact with a prediction market strategy platform, PPP (Prediction Position Platform), which offered the above explanation.

PPP explained that some addresses might achieve profits due to special information, extreme positions, one-off market movements, or capital scale advantages. If ordinary users only look at profit rankings, they can easily overlook factors like drawdowns, liquidity, position styles, and actual followability. Once they blindly copy trades, they often encounter unexpected results. In other words, "profitability" itself does not equate to "copyability."

"An address that is truly safe for ordinary users to copy must achieve stable profitability over a large sample size across a longer period. Win rate, maximum drawdown, strategy stability, and position allocation... Every indicator is indispensable. Only addresses that can withstand scrutiny across these dimensions have reproducible profit logic."

AI Modeling + Manual Review: Filtering Truly Reusable Strategies

From PPP's perspective, the biggest problem facing current prediction market users is how to filter out truly "reproducible, verifiable, and sustainable" smart money addresses from the vast ocean of trading addresses, and to track the dynamics of related addresses in a simpler way to participate in copy trading.

To this end, PPP is attempting to build a complete system — structuring complex address data and trading signals, ultimately transforming them into strategic entry points that ordinary users can understand and utilize.

Lorne, a team member of PPP, stated: "The market isn't short of monitoring tools or copy-trading tools. What's missing is a set of strategic mechanisms that structure and cleanse complex trading behaviors, turning them into something ordinary users can understand, dare to use, and find easy to operate."

Lorne added that PPP employs a dual mechanism based on AI modeling and manual review, conducting comprehensive analysis of specific addresses across multiple dimensions, including but not limited to:

• Profit performance and stability;
• Win rate structure;
• Maximum drawdown and risk exposure;
• Capital scale and position allocation;
• Activity level and trading frequency;
• Holding period...

After comprehensive AI modeling of these indicators, the system first removes "accidental profits" and "anomalous trading samples." Combined with multiple rounds of manual review, it ultimately selects a batch of trading addresses that are statistically more stable and hold sustained research value.

PPP emphasizes that its AI algorithm model itself is not disclosed to the public, but the platform makes the model's analytical capabilities available to users through an "AI Address Parsing Tool." Users can paste addresses they are tracking on PPP, compare them against the smart money address library, and gauge the address's profitability, information advantage, drawdown resilience, and win rate percentile to determine if it possesses stable strength.

Strategy Stratification: Meeting Diverse Needs

After completing the initial screening, PPP further stratifies these reproducible smart money addresses and builds two core product systems catering to different user needs.

First is the "Strategy Plaza." According to Lorne, the Strategy Plaza aggregates stable trading strategies verified over a longer period. Addresses entering this system typically need to meet stricter screening criteria, including:

• At least six months of historical trading verification;
• A multidimensional AI score;
• Manual review confirming strategy consistency;
• Key focus on risk-reward ratio and drawdown control ability;
• Emphasis on strategy reproducibility and long-term stability;

In summary, the Strategy Plaza can be understood as a filtered long-term strategy pool, aiming to provide more sustainable options for users seeking stable copy-trading. PPP also conducts regular reviews of the strategies in this section weekly to ensure their continued effectiveness.

Second is the "Trading Momentum Board." Lorne explained that, unlike the Strategy Plaza, the Trading Momentum Board leans more towards capturing phased opportunities. This board is jointly generated by PPP through AI multidimensional models and manual review, primarily filtering traders who have performed exceptionally well in the last 30 days. Key dimensions include:

• Speed of profit growth;
• Win rate trend;
• Activity level and market participation;
• Short-term capital behavior characteristics;

In this system, high returns often come with higher volatility. PPP has explicitly stated: "This board is better suited for users looking for phased opportunities, rather than a long-term stable copy-trading strategy."

To meet diverse operational needs,PPP provides simple, easy-to-understand abstract summaries and descriptions of the specific styles of strategies and addresses within the Strategy Plaza and Trading Momentum Board (e.g., "High implied win rate strategy, extremely volatile"), enabling users to clearly understand the differences between strategies and make choices.

In addition to the two standardized ranking systems mentioned above, PPP also offers a one-click trading function and an address copy-trading function. The former helps users immediately copy trades upon receiving a trading signal; the latter allows users to input any address they follow for copy trading.

Beginner's Luck During Trial: Over 60% Daily Return

Lorne revealed that PPP has recently officially launched its Telegram Bot product, currently using it as the main user interaction interface, with websites and other products under active preparation.

Guided by Lorne, we also tried going through the complete usage process as an ordinary user.

Upon initial entry, users need to log in and create a wallet via the Telegram Mini App. PPP's wallet system is non-custodial, meaning users always retain control of the wallet (the private key can be exported following the process; please store it securely on your own). This implies that any potential future gains from this wallet, such as a potential airdrop from Polymarket, will belong entirely to the user.

Next comes the deposit and subscription stage. PPP adopted a subscription-based service. Users need to subscribe first to unlock the full functionality. The monthly subscription fee is 59 USDC, but a limited-time discount offering a 1.99 USDC subscription fee is currently underway, allowing early users to experience it at a low cost.

After subscribing, users can see the unlocked complete service suite on the PPP homepage, including the previously mentioned Strategy Plaza, Trading Momentum Board, Address Copy Trading, AI Address Analysis, as well as "Wallet & Assets" for checking balances, "Active Positions" for viewing current copy trades, and "Signal Detection" for tracking the latest market trends... PPP has also launched a dedicated World Cup section, where users can view real-time match schedules. Additionally, PPP will continuously update related smart money movements and key trading signals to quickly identify where capital is betting.

Regarding the specific copy-trading operation, after selecting a strategy, users can view the core indicators of that strategy across various dimensions. Once confirmed to meet their needs, they can choose the copy amount or customize settings to start copy-trading. A special mention is needed here for the "Copy Settings" function within the features. Users can actively adjust parameters like trigger amount, copy amount, slippage, take-profit, and maximum position limit for different strategies within this interface to control the execution boundaries of copy trades.

I personally deposited $100 and ran a test for a day, following two strategies/addresses on the Strategy Plaza and the Trading Momentum Board each. When I checked the next day, I was taken aback — the account net value peaked at $164, a daily return of over 60%.

However, in subsequent tests, the account experienced some drawdown. In summary, the main issue was failing to set different copy amounts for strategies with different risk profiles, causing a low-probability event to erode too much capital.

Lorne candidly admitted: "Although PPP has rigorously screened and reviewed the historical performance of selected strategies, recognizing the address's capability through multidimensional modeling, the platform cannot guarantee that the strategy accounts will continue to generate profits in the future. Therefore, users are advised to attempt within an acceptable risk range and avoid getting carried away."

Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market

After testing for a few days and having an in-depth conversation with Lorne, our most intuitive feeling is that PPP should not be simply understood as a "copy-trading tool." It seems more like an attempt to build a structured "compilation" path "from trading signals to executable strategies."

Smart money does exist, but it's scattered across countless addresses, strategies, and short-term fluctuations. Profit records are real, but the underlying risk structure, capital behavior, and strategy stability are often obscured by simple profit figures. This explains why "following smart money" is often unstable in practice — users see the results, but the market operates on the process; users want to replicate the profits, but often overlook the path.

PPP aims to solve this disconnect. Through the deep integration of complex AI algorithms and manual review, it denoises and structures the originally chaotic and random on-chain trading signals, distilling truly "reproducible" smart money strategies and delivering them to users via the low-barrier TG Bot format. This is both an effective defense against the "smart money trap" and a way to eliminate information asymmetry in prediction markets.

Of course, as Lorne emphasized, no historical backtesting or strategy screening can make a 100% promise about future returns. High returns in prediction markets inherently come with high volatility and high risk. PPP provides a set of "weapons" that have undergone deep processing. They can help users improve win rates and avoid obvious pitfalls, but whether they ultimately succeed in the long-term game depends on the user's own capital management