Grayscale：這15個賺錢的加密協議，價格被嚴重低估了

Original Author: Zach Pandl (Grayscale Research Lead)

Original Translation Compiled by: TechFlow

Editor's Note: Grayscale Research released its latest report, listing the top 15 on-chain protocols by revenue and comparing their valuation multiples. The core finding: many protocols generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue are trading at single-digit or even just 1x revenue multiples. The market caps of Pump.fun, PancakeSwap, and Meteora are almost equal to their one-year revenue. Grayscale believes the CLARITY Act could pass as early as next month, potentially opening the door for institutional capital to flow into these DeFi financial protocols. However, it's important to note: Grayscale is itself a crypto asset management firm, and its "undervalued" conclusion aligns with its commercial interests. Investors should form their own independent judgment.

After a prolonged bear market, many revenue-generating on-chain applications have become quite cheap from a fundamental perspective.

Among the top 15 on-chain protocols by revenue (including Hyperliquid), the vast majority have seen their past 12-month revenue multiples drop to single digits, with many trading at just 1x. Since most protocols have low operating expenses, they also look cheap when measured by profit or cash flow.

Grayscale believes the potential passage of the CLARITY Act (as early as next month) could help unlock this value. The reasoning: if enacted, this law would introduce a traditional financial regulatory framework to crypto assets, which is a significant positive catalyst for these applications.

Specifically, the CLARITY Act would drive the growth of tokenized assets and on-chain finance. Nearly all of the top 15 revenue protocols are linked to financial use cases or closely related infrastructure (like oracles and staking). Grayscale believes these protocols will significantly benefit from the anticipated increase in on-chain transaction activity following the Act's passage.

Grayscale's 'Bargain List': A Look at 15 Protocols

Note: Top 15 on-chain protocol revenue ranking. Data as of June 24, 2026. Sources: DefiLlama, Artemis, Grayscale Investments. Excludes projects with insufficient data coverage. Chainlink excluded due to both on-chain and off-chain revenue.

This table is dense with information. Let's break it down layer by layer.

'1x Club': Market Cap ≈ One Year's Revenue

The most striking entries in the table are the four protocols with a revenue multiple of just 1x:

Pump.fun (PUMP) — $459 million in protocol revenue over the past 12 months, with a circulating market cap of $456 million. A software business generating nearly $500 million annually with negligible operating costs, trading at a market cap equal to one year's revenue, would immediately catch a value investor's eye in traditional markets. However, Pump.fun's revenue is highly dependent on meme coin speculation. If sentiment shifts, these trading volumes could evaporate overnight. The 1x valuation might reflect the market overlooking real cash flow, or it could correctly discount unsustainable revenue.

PancakeSwap (CAKE) — $322 million in revenue, $425 million market cap, 1x. The largest DEX on BNB Chain, with operations spanning AMM trading, yield farming, prediction markets, and more. Its revenue is more diversified than Pump.fun's, and it has a solid user base in the Asia-Pacific region.

Meteora (MET) — $62 million in revenue, $78 million market cap, 1x. A liquidity infrastructure protocol on Solana, co-created by Jupiter founder Meow. Note the team risk following the resignation of co-founder Ben Chow amid financial misconduct allegations.

Collector Crypt (CARDS) — $49 million in revenue, $68 million market cap, 1x. Belongs to the "Consumer & Culture" category and is the least well-known among the 15 protocols.

Mid-Tier: Single-Digit Multiples, Real-Deal DeFi Protocols

Raydium (RAY) — $46 million in revenue, $158 million market cap, 3x. A core AMM on Solana, benefiting from trading activity and new token launches within the Solana ecosystem.

Lido Finance (LDO) — $77 million in revenue, $216 million market cap, 3x. The largest liquid staking protocol on Ethereum, categorized under "Tools & Services," representing key on-chain staking infrastructure.

Aerodrome (AERO) — $124 million in revenue, $471 million market cap, 4x. The largest DEX on Base by TVL and volume, utilizing a ve(3,3) tokenomics model coupled with concentrated liquidity. It serves as the liquidity hub for the Coinbase L2 ecosystem.

Sky (SKY) — $248 million in revenue, $1.241 billion market cap, 5x. Formerly MakerDAO, an on-chain lending and stablecoin protocol.

Jupiter (JUP) — $130 million in revenue, $716 million market cap, 6x. The largest DEX aggregator on Solana, recently surpassing Uniswap and PancakeSwap in daily fee revenue on multiple occasions.

Ether.fi (ETHFI) — $56 million in revenue, $314 million market cap, 6x. A representative protocol in the restaking sector.

Lighter (LIT) — $50 million in revenue, $381 million market cap, 8x.

Aave (AAVE) — $125 million in revenue, $1.169 billion market cap, 9x. The largest lending protocol on-chain. In another report, Grayscale performed a detailed DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis on AAVE, a methodological breakthrough in the crypto industry, detailed later.

High Multiple Zone: Paying for Narrative and Optionality

Hyperliquid (HYPE) — Topping the list with $871 million in revenue, its circulating market cap is $13.456 billion, a 15x multiple. While its revenue far exceeds the second-place protocol, its valuation multiple is also high. Hyperliquid's story extends beyond a perpetual exchange: the HIP-3 proposal launched in October 2025 allows third parties to permissionlessly deploy perpetual markets on Hyperliquid, with underlying assets expanding to stocks, commodities, indices, and pre-IPO stocks. In March of this year, S&P Dow Jones Indices licensed the S&P 500 Index to an HIP-3 deployer, creating the first S&P 500 perpetual product. HIP-3 markets reached a peak open interest of $3.2 billion and cumulative trading volume of approximately $200 billion. 99% of protocol fees flow back to the protocol through buybacks. Grayscale has launched a staking ETF (HYPG) for HYPE, listed on Nasdaq.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — $105 million in revenue, $1.82 billion market cap, 17x. This valuation is significantly inflated, likely reflecting political association and market visibility related to the Trump family rather than fundamental output.

Uniswap (UNI) — $49 million in revenue, $1.778 billion market cap, 37x. Revenue ranks second lowest, yet its valuation multiple is the highest in the entire table. This reflects a long-standing structural issue: the premium UNI holders pay is primarily for governance rights and the option value of a "fee switch" (distributing protocol revenue to token holders), not for current cash flows. The market is pricing what UNI "could become," not what it "is now."

CLARITY Act: A Catalyst for These Protocols

Grayscale's argument isn't just that "these protocols are cheap," but that "they are cheap ahead of a potential regulatory catalyst."

Of the 15 protocols in the table, 12 are financial protocols: decentralized exchanges, lending platforms, liquid staking, and yield infrastructure. The CLARITY Act (full name: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is precisely the regulatory framework targeting these financial use cases.

The core of this law is to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and establish a framework for distinguishing between "investment contracts" and "digital commodities." It has passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15:9 (with 2 votes from Democrats). Polymarket gives it a 67% probability of passage within the year.

The logic chain is simple: Clear regulatory rules → Lower institutional compliance friction → Growth in on-chain activity and TVL → Increased revenue for these protocols → Repricing of current low valuation multiples.

[Compilation Supplement] Grayscale's DCF Valuation of AAVE: One-Year Price Target of $175

The following content is from Grayscale's related mid-June report, "Guide to Buying the Dip: Valuing Crypto with Cash Flows," and is not part of the original article. It is supplemented here by the compiler.

Grayscale places crypto assets on a valuation spectrum. On one end are pure commodity assets like Bitcoin, priced by supply and demand. On the other end are protocols like Hyperliquid and Aave with substantial revenue, suitable for traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models.

Framework for Analyzing Aave:

Aave Labs functions essentially like a permissionless on-chain bank, earning the spread between depositors and borrowers, plus fees and revenue from its stablecoin (GHO). Grayscale estimates Aave's 2026 protocol profit to be around $60 million, with an operating margin of about 50%.

Using comparable valuation multiples for fintech companies (20-25x P/E), the fair value for AAVE is approximately $80-$100, compared to a trading price of around $75 at the time of the report. AAVE's current forward P/E is ~18x, lower than comparable fintech companies.

In a baseline scenario (accelerated tokenization adoption, progressing regulatory clarity), Grayscale gives a one-year price target of approximately $175, representing roughly 130% upside from current levels.

There are several special issues in valuing crypto protocols that traditional tools don't cover:

Varied Mechanisms for Returning Value to Tokens — Buybacks (AAVE), token burns (HYPE), fee rebates (CoW), staking rewards (CRV). The efficiency of value transmission to holders differs for each mechanism.

Specific Expense Items — Including supply-side fees (paid to liquidity providers), token emissions (ongoing inflationary dilution), and DAO capital expenditures.

Legal Structure Uncertainty — Holding governance tokens generally doesn't imply legally enforceable rights to protocol assets. Various DAOs use different legal structures to align protocol operations with applicable law.

[Compilation Supplement] Macro Context: Market Divergence Since the Iran Conflict

The following content from a concurrent Grayscale weekly report provides macro context.

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February, US stocks have risen 9% (boosted by AI spending), Bitcoin has fallen 1%, and Gold has fallen 20%. BTC and Gold underperformance is partly due to market expectations that the Fed might raise interest rates to combat inflation – the one-year federal funds rate expectation has risen by about 60 basis points, with roughly half of Fed officials considering a rate hike in 2026 appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates.

Grayscale disagrees with this expectation, with a base case that the Fed will hold steady. If this view is correct, the Bitcoin price could rally to catch up with US stocks.

In this risk-off macro environment, valuations of on-chain protocols are further compressed. This is the time window for Grayscale's "bear market multiples + regulatory catalyst" thesis.

How to Objectively View This Report

The picture Grayscale paints is indeed noteworthy: high-margin protocols trading at compressed valuation multiples, a potential regulatory tailwind on the horizon, while the overall market remains risk-off. This is a rare, fundamentally-based crypto investment thesis in a market usually driven by sentiment.

But two things must be made clear:

First, the catalyst is conditional. The timeline and final form of the CLARITY Act are not guaranteed. An investment thesis built on a legislative event inherently carries the risk of delay or disappointment. A 67% probability of passage also implies a 33% chance of failure.

Second, Grayscale is a stakeholder. It is a crypto asset management firm whose business model relies on investors increasing their exposure to these assets. It has already launched a Nasdaq-listed staking ETF for Hyperliquid. Its conclusion that "now is an attractive entry point" should be read within this interest context, not as neutral analysis.

The valuation data is verifiable, and the anomalies are real. But whether this signals a bottom or the market correctly pricing in the risks it sees is a question every investor must answer for themselves.

For those tracking the CLARITY Act, the key signal to watch isn't just whether the bill passes, but whether institutional capital actually flows into these protocols in the weeks following its passage – that would be the true validation of Grayscale's thesis.