Citrini Research：被AI吸走注意力，這些標的跌出黃金坑

Original Author: Citrini Research

Original Compilation: TechFlow

Introduction: While analysts across the market are busy calculating how many HBM and Taiwanese glass data centers are short of, the truly scarce resource is "attention" itself. Three years of AI narrative has led to overcrowded capital, but the rest of the world is still turning: for instance, the life sciences cycle has bottomed out, aging-population real estate is booming, and sports venues are selling out. These forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now may not lie within the AGI timeline, but in the "small themes" no one is modeling.

Note: The following is a compilation of key content from the latest Citrini Research report. The original is paid content, and this article is compiled from its public summary and multiple sources.

Attention Tax

Did you know? Computing power, electricity, HBM, NAND, the concrete and transformers for building data centers, that special Taiwanese glass, and the alphabet soup of technology that converts light into data – all are in short supply.

Yes, of course you do. But amongst the AI-induced shortages, there is one even scarcer input: attention.

Every marginal hour of an analyst's brainpower (or their token budget) has been pulled towards a single trade. We know this firsthand, having spent the better part of three years tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.

But shortsightedness has its costs, and we think it's time to broaden our horizons.

The AI trade is – at the very least – crowded, even if it's right. We see a high risk of "AI fatigue" and will likely see some degree of capital rotation towards things people seem to have stopped caring about.

The mechanism we care about is simple: capital floods into one theme, and peripheral assets become underweighted, which is interesting in itself. These assets are also under-modeled and overlooked.

We touched on this regarding the life sciences cycle – which, in our view, has bottomed. Five years ago, we would see these stocks bouncing from lows, pre-pricing an upcycle. Now they're stuck in a 52-week low quagmire because no one wants to rotate risk into a de-stocking recovery when "DRAM is the bottleneck."

The world keeps spinning, and the gap between forgotten expectations and changing reality has always been where thematic investing makes money. Attention is a finite resource, but in a typical momentum reversal, it can shift quickly. Sometimes when it shifts, it brings a new focus into investor consciousness, even if momentum swings back up.

We are revisiting our "small themes" – trend and catalyst-driven trades that aren't decade-defining market disruption stories. Rather, they are interesting, low-radar narratives in less popular sectors that could surprise. Five themes, none requiring a view on AGI timelines or tokenomics. Boomers moving into nursing homes. Sports venue tickets selling out. A two-decade exchange monopoly facing its first real competition. Fintech recovery. And airline stocks, where our two favorite names have been punished for eighteen months for reasons completely unrelated to their profitability.

Our macro view is that the market will continue to move higher, but we will also see noticeably more 10-15% sharp drops, driven more by positioning than fundamentals. This means we should hold onto semiconductor names, but probably shouldn't let them be the only names on the map. Right now, we have been gradually trimming our AI allocation over the past month because everyone with an internet connection is wearing a "bottleneck investor" hat, and we are increasingly interested in what the AI Dutch Disease leaves behind.

Theme One: Airlines, Penalized for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability

Citrini is bullish on Delta and United, and this has been the case for over two years. In November 2024, they analyzed the "structural reset" of the airline industry, believing these two major carriers would be winners.

Two years later, Citrini remains bullish. The report points out that the decline in these two stocks over the past 18 months was almost entirely driven by macro factors – first tariff-related inflation fears, then the Iran war pushing up oil prices, all unrelated to whether the airlines themselves are profitable.

According to a Business Insider report, Citrini believes that as the economy moves past the shadows of tariff inflation and oil price shocks, the growth prospects for these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is exacerbating divergence, and far from resisting it, major airlines are actively embracing it – tilting towards premiumization to increase revenue per passenger.

Additionally, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a short-term catalyst, with international travel demand from the global event directly benefiting airline stocks.

Theme Two: Senior Housing, 80+ Population to Grow 56% in a Decade, Facilities Far from Sufficient

Citrini's second theme points to a sector that is not glamorous but is certainly certain: senior housing real estate.

The core data is very compelling: the US population aged 80+ is projected to grow by over 56% in the next decade, far exceeding the ~5% growth rate of the total population. In 2026 alone, there will be 1 million new households headed by someone 80 or older, and by 2029, this number will double to 2 million.

Supply on the facility side is lagging far behind. Citrini notes that this sector is largely overlooked because it's not flashy – lacking appeal compared to AI and semiconductors. But the Baby Boomer generation is collectively entering old age, a trend purely driven by demographics, independent of any policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.

According to Business Insider, Citrini named three specific names: senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and nursing home operator Brookdale Senior Living.

Theme Three: Live Entertainment, Best Performing Asset Class of the Past Decade, Beating Tech Stocks

Citrini calls live entertainment the best-performing asset class of the past decade, even surpassing tech stocks.

The report's core thesis: "Being there" itself is becoming a luxury good. Consumers are willing to pay a significant premium for live, in-person experiences. Sports franchises, concerts, fight events, and even movie theaters are all benefiting from this desire for "authentic presence." Citrini writes: "Sports franchises, and more broadly all offline events, are benefiting from people's desire to 'be there.' This brings a greater opportunity to monetize through attendance, premiumization, and promotion."

According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentioned three companies:

TKO Group, the parent company of WWE and UFC, was highlighted for its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to movie theaters. IMAX represents the direction of cinematic experience upgrades – audiences want more than just watching a movie; they seek an immersive experience. IMAX's stock hit an all-time high earlier this month.

Theme Four: Exchange Monopoly Challenged, CME's Two-Decade Dominance Faces First Real Rival

The most institutionally-focused theme in the Citrini report points to the fracturing landscape of US futures exchanges.

CME Group holds approximately 98% of the US interest rate derivatives market, a near-absolute monopoly maintained for over two decades. But the emergence of FMX Futures Exchange is changing this dynamic.

FMX, incubated by BGC Group (founded by current US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick), received CFTC approval in January 2024 and officially launched trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list reads like a Wall Street hall of fame: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo all hold minority stakes, with a valuation of approximately $667 million.

FMX's competitive strategy is three-pronged: lower trading fees, margin savings via a partnership with LCH, and incentive programs for liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX set a single-day trading volume record of 9,500 contracts.

CME is not without its flaws. Just last week (June 22), the CME Direct platform suffered a four-hour outage, and this is not the first infrastructure disruption. FMX has publicly stated that CME's near-monopoly makes such incidents a systemic risk, arguing the market needs a reliable alternative exchange for resilience.

Of course, the path for a disruptor is not easy. During tariff turmoil in April 2025, FMX's trading volume plummeted by more than two-thirds as traders instinctively reverted to the deeper liquidity of CME during heightened volatility. However, as markets normalized, FMX's volume is gradually recovering. Bank of America estimates CME generates approximately $2 billion in revenue from treasury-related business alone – a large enough profit pool to justify a challenger's long-term commitment.

Theme Five: Fintech Recovery, the Most Beaten-Down Sector of 2026 is Bouncing Back

Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.

Fintech stocks were among the worst-performing sectors in early 2026. By the end of May, SoFi was down about 35% year-to-date, with Robinhood and Upstart each down about 25%. But since late May, the sector has shown clear signs of a rebound.

SoFi's catalyst was the launch of its SoFiUSD stablecoin, making it the first US licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. The stock jumped 12% in a single day on the news. On the fundamental side, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion, loan originations hit a record $12.2 billion (up 68% year-over-year), and membership reached 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto described it as a "strategic entry into digital assets," and the company is developing global payment settlement features with Mastercard.

Robinhood, after hitting a trough in 2022-2023, has completed a U-shaped recovery, with full-year 2025 revenue up 45% year-over-year and net profit doubling. The acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp, the launch of the Gold credit card, and Gold subscribers growing to 4.3 million are all driving its transformation from a "trading app" to a "financial super app."

Upstart appointed a new CEO in May, co-founder Paul Gu, and the narrative around its AI credit platform is gaining renewed market attention.

Citrini's logic is clear: when everyone is focused on semiconductors and data centers, fintech has been forgotten to extreme valuation levels. However, the fundamentals of these companies haven't deteriorated; they've been improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, the potential for a rebound is significant.